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Andrew Keen
Hello everybody, it's Saturday the 11th of July 2026. I'll probably put this out actually on the 12th of july uh 2026 is turning into an interesting year in historical terms some people
Andrew Keen
that was the week newsletter this week he asked what time it is specifically in terms of ai and he notes that a the ai economy has multiple clocks just like history keith in a way is
Keith Teare
that fair yeah i think of it as 1905 andrew well because of
Andrew Keen
the failed russian revolution or
Keith Teare
the uh russian japanese war actually both they both were precursors to what happened for about the next, I don't know, 70 years.
Andrew Keen
Well, let's remind everyone, not everyone is as historically literate as you, Keith. What happened in 1905?
Keith Teare
There was a revolution in Russia against the Tsar from St. Petersburg that was partially successful but ultimately failed. It's when the word Menshevik and Bolshevik emerged out of that and the Russian-Japanese War was kind of a background to that and it basically set in motion all the variables that led to the Russian Revolution but it also prefigured World War I and that was the period just before it was obvious that the world was going to go through a transformation resulted ultimately in american global leadership but it took it took arguably um you know 70 years 70 or so years for that to play out well ai is at that very formative moment i think in the long it looked out from so
Andrew Keen
so i take your point i mean you will talk about these multiple clocks that you lay out um in your editorial but why 1905 when it comes to our current moment is it because we're expecting radical change and we're not getting it
Keith Teare
uh i think it's not visible yet so so in a way i do actually think we are getting radical change but it's it's only a small number of people are experiencing what's possible it is not generalized through the economy yet it isn't rolled out or deployed as that clock says in the in the middle section so you know i i'm definitely experiencing it i suspect you're experiencing it um this this week both open ai and anthropic rolled out uh an upgraded version of work they call it work or co-work in the case of anthropic which is all about making it useful to you in in what you need to get done every day and so it's it really is a very early stage of being fully formed yeah
Andrew Keen
and it's interesting one of the pieces you linked to uh this week in your newsletter is something from the wall street journal um on i'm quoting the headline the socialist temptation of sam altman so your 1905 uh uh analogy metaphor is is an interesting one are
Andrew Keen
is the ai economy keith being tempted as i mean the wall street journal is always telling us about the socialist temptation of somebody or other but it is is our old friend sam altman slippery sam as i like to think of him is he really being tempted by socialism or is he tempting us with socialism
Keith Teare
i must admit socialism is a word i've grown to hate um because in in
Andrew Keen
the american context as an old communist that's
Keith Teare
quite a confession keith well i even hated it then that's why that's why i was a communist not a socialist but uh socialism really in american context and european listeners will uh maybe not appreciate this simply means uh the capitalist state it means that the state it does more and so this word socialist has lost all historical meaning and has become americanized and what sam altman is doing is suggesting that the state should own five percent of open ai that's the that's what's called the socialist temptation of course it's not socialist
Andrew Keen
at all it's entirely capitalist well it's it's what bernie sanders and the left of the democratic party would describe themselves as democratic socialists that they do you can have your i mean some some people would say you can't have your cake and eat it but they say you can't
Keith Teare
Yeah look clearly clearly these words of you're historically literate Andrew you must appreciate as I do that these words have a completely new meaning and have been ripped out of their original context so democratic socialist simply means a capitalist politician that wants more state intervention in the economy and that of course isn't socialist socialism was was historically understood to be and I quote
Andrew Keen
the first phase of communism well that's according to the communists but anyway i mean we don't want there was a debate for 50 years on the left about whether you could have socialism in a capitalist context or not but we this is that this is a this is supposed to be a show keith and I blame myself for this but going down this road on tech rather than yeah politics so sorry go
Keith Teare
But just to come back to your question and make it more relevant, my answer more relevant. Look, the state gets more and more involved in life over time, generally speaking, because society's complex needs get bigger and bigger and larger. And private enterprise simply proves unwilling or unable, especially in infrastructure, to pay for things where there's no clear profit. and what that leads to is the state just rationally taking over more and more things even the American state does that and I do think that is endemic to capitalism but what Altman's talking about is something a little bit different and if you go beyond Altman to other people weighing in it's very different they're really talking about bypassing the state by having a sovereign wealth fund that holds equity in very successful companies not not companies nobody wants to fund but actually companies everybody wants to fund it
Andrew Keen
so it's very different it's not it's not so i mean to come back to this piece by the journal it's not really socialism or it's a new kind of socialism i mean it depends how you define the word uh but it's a new a new role for the state in terms of capitalism
Keith Teare
not even the state unless you call a sovereign wealth fund the state i guess in some small way is still the state but a sovereign wealth fund typically acts independently and makes its own decisions separate from the government based on pure economic self-interest if you will and and so it what it really is is a kind of end game in capitalism where private ownership of companies has reached the point of producing so much wealth that it's possible to imagine everybody benefiting from it that that's really never been the case yeah it's the opposite
Andrew Keen
of british leyland remember that old british nationalist nationalized car company that every time anything in the uk after the war got nationalized it became incredibly inefficient and worthless yeah it's the reverse of them
Keith Teare
yeah nationalization historically has been either saving something that's dying and usually failing to do that or taking over something that is considered monopolistic but in america that didn't really happen it more split things up to make it more competitive yeah you had
Andrew Keen
the whole antitrust software let's let's get into your multiple clocks because it's an intriguing idea you say the ai economy has multiple clocks and you break it up into short medium and long term so tell us what these clocks what what what's saying on all these different clocks of course in your uh in your in your visual of your editorial this week uh the clock is at nine past ten but those nine past tens are very different kinds of times yeah
Keith Teare
so what look what i'm trying to do here is make logical sense out of a huge flood of AI related news and stories and developments. And I decided that just for my own thinking, I wanted to divide it firstly into micro issues and macro issues, big picture, small picture of strategic and tactical, if you will, and then to put each of those on a short, medium, and long-term timeline. Once you do that, you can put pretty much every story in one of these rectangles. So at the micro level is what we all get obsessed with. So this week, OpenAI and Anthropic deployed new versions of both their models and their desktop applications. And the box says deployment friction. They're all trying to get especially businesses to adopt ai to use it and they're trying to provide tools that make that easier for them to do and it's very tactical they're hiring large numbers of engineers microsoft and amazon both are spending several billion on what's called forward deployed engineers and those four deployed engineers are all about getting stuff adopted or deployed that that's the obsession of the moment in that bottom left hand yeah and then one
Andrew Keen
of the pieces of news that might have been a bit late for the newsletter is that apple is suing ai for stealing its ideas or at least supposedly stealing its ideas so there's a legal component to your micro workflows people experience yeah
Keith Teare
and that's very short term meaning that's probably the obsession for the next one to three years In the medium term there on the micro, we've got work adapts, which always takes longer because established practices have to be replaced or evolved towards new practices. But it's really about the human as the driver of AI, as opposed to AI being imposed on humans.
Keith Teare
And it's only about the acceptance of a tool broadly in the economy.
Andrew Keen
we hope of course i mean there is another narrative of them right and then
Keith Teare
the long-term micro is really all about how it affects our non-work life yeah this is your civilization this is
Andrew Keen
where i think you and i probably disagree and i'm quoting you uh the fourth clock is long-term civilization i'm always a bit wary of that c word uh and i'm quoting you narvin narayan we'll come to his piece later calls ai a normal technology i like that phrase and this is you i like that phrase because it deflates hysteria without deflating importance electricity was a normal technology, the internet was a normal technology. Normal technologies do not change the world by magic they enter institutions, change workflows, change new jobs, destroy old ones and take longer than their loudest advocates expect." I agree with that but what's the civilizational element?
Keith Teare
Well it goes back to the Altman piece The civilization element is what kind of life can we afford for people And what kind of life experience can they expect to have?
Keith Teare
We're nowhere near answering that. If you look at the piece this week about, the education piece about Brown where the professor is aghast at the fact that the students are using AI.
Andrew Keen
Yeah I missed that piece but anyway go on tell me about the piece who's it by?
Keith Teare
it's i can't remember who wrote it to be honest um you'll have to we'll have to look and and say the name but it was in it was in the uh higher education uh publication and uh what happened is he he gave them a a take-home test and they all got 90 plus percent and he accused them of using ai collectively
Andrew Keen
and they forced them to take a similar oh i did see that yeah and then they none
Keith Teare
of them did very well the average was in the 40s and he called it cheating and that's because he is he is scoring memory his his job he believes is to score memory what you can remember from what you've read it isn't really scoring understanding it's scoring memory and and you know in response i would say he is historically dated although it doesn't appear that way he appears to be in the right in
Andrew Keen
the context we're in today back to 1905 and of course these kids for the privilege of maybe what you call learning memory are paying a hundred thousand dollars a year at brown to enable this guy and people like him to maintain their lifestyles
Keith Teare
and ideologies yeah so what life can we expect is um is an exciting question to be honest andrew because it the answer is should be a way better one and as we know we've been going through this a couple of decades now where everyone says well the future life of an american child is not going to be as good as the parents i think maybe now you can begin to see that it might be better than the parents and that hasn't been true for a long time so optimism becomes grounded
Andrew Keen
You mean in the long term, because we're currently not in a very optimistic moment. I mean you and I โ you're very optimistic. I'm cautiously optimistic.
Keith Teare
Yeah, but that's the micro and then of course there's a whole macro stuff The biggest of which in the short term is that everybody is complaining about how expensive AI is becoming, especially anthropic So anthropic everyone's turned against anthropic which is weird you're already against them
Andrew Keen
so they're all following you keith i'm not against anthropic i mean it's a week
Keith Teare
to week thing yeah well it is week to week but but you know just to just to name one podcast that's very influential the all in podcast literally they've all come down in favor of these chinese open source models on the bit why because anthropic uh you can't control the cost um and and open ai this week when they launched their 5.6 um sol model um the selling point was that it uses way less tokens and can get things done faster therefore it's cheaper not only better but cheaper so everyone's focused on price yeah well that all
Andrew Keen
in podcast is also very pro-american i wonder what their friends in the white house david sachs etc i wonder what they think of that in terms of getting to the future keith you have an interesting piece by matt inglesius very influential blogger writer sub Substacker who argues that to save capitalism we need radical land use reform that's not very digital that's not very ai what's he saying why is land use reform so essential in terms
Keith Teare
of reforming capitalism well land is highly regulated in the u.s um i mean very regulated um and it's mostly privately owned um and so if if if collectively we want to do something with land it's almost impossible through the regulations to get the right to do it even if you're the government uh unlike say china where they can just right
Andrew Keen
and that was the whole point of the abundance book is that To build a proper high speed train in California, it's almost impossible because billions of dollars to build a few hundred yards. Whereas in China for the same amount of money they've electrified the entire country because of land use. So that's the problem you and I. I mean, I'm always a bit wary of this abundance thing. And your definition of abundance, not the... the the klein thompson one um because i don't think they're quite as optimistic as you i've always used the example of land and you've always poo-pooed that saying well there's enough land but there isn't enough land and that's why in political terms for example the immigration issue has become so sensitive and people are obsessed with keeping people out of their countries it explains the rise of nationalism i just disagree with you on the abundance of land i mean you're going to say well there's enough land if you share it around if you go around america there's a lot of empty spaces
Keith Teare
but no one wants to be in those empty spaces well i'll give you an example that i think you'll identify with andrew which is london um london is a one of the world's biggest cities it's certainly quite crowded um what's happened over the last 30 years in London has changed the meaning of the word London to include areas some some of them as far away as 30 to 40 miles away from London and what did they do the first thing they did is they created a zone where cars couldn't come in without paying huge amounts of money so they reduced the traffic they built the elizabeth line which runs east to west in london all the way to reading which is another city altogether on the on the east side and all the way almost all the way to um essex on the on the other side into essex yeah so okay they built north south railways they've built fantastic inner london railways and the bus system is is magnificent once you get there as is the underground That infrastructure has turned the land in London into something like 50 times more land than used to be defined as London.
Andrew Keen
Yeah, but that's all very well. Maybe that's true, but it hasn't brought down real estate prices. In fact, most people complain increasingly about London that there aren't any Londoners left. If you go to central London, the place you talk about where there are no cars, you're not allowed to drive. uh you barely hear english i mean i don't agree with that and i certainly don't like the politics behind that but it doesn't create an abundance and then the whole your whole argument your whole ideology of abundance is price is somehow brought down to zero and if anything london now is more expensive than it's ever been with or without the the elizabethan with with or without the elizabeth line and uh car free inner zone look
Keith Teare
uh i don't know what you mean by expensive i mean well they say you're not free
Andrew Keen
to buy a place in london or rent a place in london whether you're in reading or
Keith Teare
in hensington yeah but the idea that uh because something isn't free is ridiculous i mean free is an end game it's not meant to be a a short-term objective hence the need for this timeline free is a is a tendency not it's not a achievement that's already in the bag well i mean you can buy a really nice house now on the elizabeth line and get to central london in 20 or 30 minutes maximum uh for you know a couple of hundred thousand pounds which is uh which is similar to a house in kansas
Andrew Keen
Yeah, I mean we don't have the data in front of us. But I would strongly disagree with that. You're saying that you can buy a house, a four-bedroom house on the Elizabethan line for ยฃ200,000?
Keith Teare
You said...
Andrew Keen
Maybe let's address this next week. You show me the data.
Keith Teare
I find that impossible to believe. I'll offer you some homes, Andrew, on the Elisabeth line.
Andrew Keen
Right. i'm gonna go back and live in london if i can get a place a four-bedroom place
Keith Teare
for 200 000 by the way you can get a three-bedroom condo right in the middle of the city of london um that would cost i know five million dollars in san francisco for about one million pounds yeah well you
Andrew Keen
maybe you should become a real estate agent keith i'm suspicious of that let's talk also about america you have an interesting piece from noah smith i know he's one of your favorite substackers on the american age being the human age and and and and there's an element of nostalgia about your pieces um you also have a link with yasha monk's persuasion an interview he did with the great bulgarian social political theorist ivan krastev on why america has lost faith in itself a week after july 4th uh 250 year anniversary keith what what what do these Articles tell us about the decline or reappearance of America?
Keith Teare
Well, the Yashia Munk one is interesting because it goes to the core. Krastev is basically saying that American exceptionalism, the idea that america is special um has had a very short life really dating from about uh
Keith Teare
1850 or so up until maybe 1970 uh the the vietnam war and and and uh 1850 but that
Andrew Keen
but that's that's a short life maybe in world historical terms but that's half of the whole history of the american republic
Keith Teare
right and he's making the point that it's gone that there's there's no longer any confidence in america having a special purpose it's been replaced by a defensive preservation of america i mean even though maga is let's make america great again the content is let's stop america declining so it's very defensive. And so Trumpism is not really optimistic. It's reactive to decline. That's my words, not Krastev's. But he zooms in on it and he's kind of putting his finger on the psychological idea of America and making the point that it's now been lost. So what is there left to believe in? And that in a way is the same point I made earlier about the idea that your children will be worse off than you are maybe there's a glint now
Andrew Keen
where that won't be true yes smith comes i think smith puts his finger on something that's weird about america is that on the one hand americans can't build a functional passenger train network we know that from thompson and kline's abundance but on the other hand the ai industry is american ai industry is upending the world and then he goes on our health care system costs twice as much as that of any other rich country and nations but our houses are huge and luxurious so there are two americas the america in radical decline and the america that's steaming ahead especially of europe i mean you have a piece on um from paul krugman another of your favorite substackers on this perennial theme of european versus u.s economic performance so america's weird it's not in self-evident decline but people think it is well smith smith makes
Keith Teare
the point quite well that um And obviously he's abstracting here, and he's probably talking about DC more than anything. But it makes the point that America has grown comfortable with stasis and with the idea that local veto power overrides national projects. And so you end up with stesis and satisfaction with the way things are as opposed to a vision... Obviously the opposite of someone like Elon Musk who lives in the future in his head. and is totally unsatisfied with the way things are if you were to contrast washington dc with elon musk you kind of get a sense of what old america used to be more like elon musk we're not going to have
Andrew Keen
an elon musk argument today but uh it was interesting i i will come on to our interview of the week from my keen on america show but one of the other people i interviewed this week and i think you'd like this interview actually is with the swiss-based
Andrew Keen
geostrategic thinker, Mehran Gore. He has a new book out called The New Geography of Innovation. And he argues that the American share of the global innovation economy is held relatively stable at about 40, 45%. But what's changed over the last 20 years is that China has replaced Europe. So America actually has stayed the same, but instead of now competing with Europe, it competes with China.
Keith Teare
Yeah, look, there was always a brain drain of European scientists to America going way back to the post-First World War era You know, American science definitely wasn't very American It was largely European, actually So Europe's decline started a long time ago China's rise, I think, you know, is really dated in the last 40 years um generally speaking and chinese science chinese universities are world class and chinese scientists are world-class they didn't used to be very innovative i do think
Andrew Keen
that's changed in the last 10 yeah and that's um this this book miren goes the new geography of innovation notes that the chinese innovation is self-evident and highly competitive america although it doesn't necessarily forecast that china's going to take over so maybe that comes back to your 1905, right? But rather than Japan, China is the version of Japan right now in 2026. Yeah. So Americans should be โ I mean for all the pessimism, whatever Ivan Krastev says, whatever Noah Smith says about the American age, I mean Americans should maintain a degree of optimism, shouldn't they Keith?
Keith Teare
well that that's the Marc Andreessen view with Ben Horowitz they've got kind of this phrase American dynamism and they've raised a very large cluster of funds to invest in industrial reinvention if you will robotics and AI being a big part of that of course and you know the problem is the math
Keith Teare
american gdp versus chinese gdp there's only really one direction the the chinese curve is up uh the american curve is also up well we got
Andrew Keen
the american gdp on screen now and it seems to be going up i mean maybe not radically
Keith Teare
well if you put the chinese and the american together you can see the difference because the shape of the curves are completely in china's favor and china's now really america's equal by living standard measures of gdp not by absolute so it's clearly the case that america american growth is slowing which doesn't mean america isn't still growing it's just the rate well maybe
Andrew Keen
that explains uh sam altman's socialist temptation another interesting piece you linked to this week is by another old friend of the show one of the more influential figures in silicon valley in terms of his thinking john battell one of the co-inventors of web 2.0 he asked whether we've lost the plot um and uh he talks about whether our lives have become quote unquote dematerialized what is patel arguing
Keith Teare
this week um you know it's i hate to say this because i'm older than him but he's basically adopted the old man's argument that digital um devices of media are atomizing human beings to the point where they live in isolation from other human beings and he's elevating human contact in his story and
Andrew Keen
then he quotes it's interesting he quotes a piece from Ian Bogost from Wired he said Bogost argues that technologies of convenience and efficiency have destroyed our connection to the physical world. And Bogost actually was on the show. And it's our interview of the week. He has a new book out. He's a great interview person. I mean, he's a wonderful person to interview. He has a new book out called The Small Stuff. And I'm not sure that John Patel has quite understood what Bogost is saying, because he's not denying the value of digital.
Keith Teare
Tell me what he's saying, because I didn't listen to your interview yet.
Andrew Keen
Well, he's saying that we should enjoy the small things i mean the small stuff is the stuff that he talks about and one of the things that he and i talked about was our love of the apple watch i got a new ultra three watch and he says this is something that parents should enjoy giving their kids so yeah it's small things that he focuses on and small things don't have
Keith Teare
to be analog yeah no i've i've um i identify with that a lot i've recently um you probably can't tell but i've recently sold all my digital cameras and replaced them with more handheld smaller versions that are really really good because of development and innovation and as part of that i'm buying you know things like i've got japanese cameras with with uh chinese lenses here's an example of a
Andrew Keen
of a chinese well that's very blurry keith i'm not sure what that says
Keith Teare
about china oh that's better um so this is uh that's a fujiform lens but it's made in china and you know i i get an unreasonable amount of fun from being able to take a picture of the flowers in my garden yeah and that's the point
Andrew Keen
that um bogus is saying is that we should get a great deal of fun out of picturing i mean maybe not with small lenses but picturing flowers or licking trees or enjoying our apple watches and that that's where we've lost the plot. But I'm not sure that, and I'm convinced that Batal is the reactionary, the old reactionary that you say in terms of have we lost the plot?
Keith Teare
No, I don't mean his reactionary but it is an old man's point of view And look, I don' think we've last a plot I think it's part of abundance That's the 1905 point again What we've really got is creeping abundance And these small things in our lives. our evidence because if you go back in history no one had time for small things what we've actually got yeah that's a good point actually i like
Andrew Keen
that if we go back in history no one had time for small things although well they didn't have any sort of they didn't think consciously about small things they just did them they took them for granted yeah and what bogus says and it's interesting and it comes to another piece of yours is that he's not just a nostalgic analog person but he does says that digital is destroying some things like tickets he's very much someone who thinks that we still need to enjoy the physical ticket whether it's an airline ticket or a concert ticket and this connects I think with another theme in this week's newsletter which is about Eventbrite so tell us about Eventbrite and how they survived the business apocalypse and why the internet made real life more valuable than ever and how we can actually save
Keith Teare
the physical ticket key yeah well event eventbrite's a really good example of how the internet enhanced human connection human connection meaning come to my house for a party or let's do a world cup watch party and and eventbrite and and similar companies really express the ability to reach out organize plan using the cloud and iphones
Keith Teare
and android phones to bring people together and that's clearly true i i would say digital tickets do that as well i mean you know when if i get a ticket to go and see david burn at the amphitheater at stanford university that dates you keith
Andrew Keen
exactly but you're another old alter cuckers the jews would say uh like uh like your friend john battell right so yeah so
Keith Teare
the eventbrite story is is a great story of utility delivered digitally
Andrew Keen
to bring people together well you asked this week what time it is according to my apple watch which i'm gonna of course wave at the wave at the screen it's time to end keith i'm not sure uh
Keith Teare
well the one thing before we end is let's just uh acknowledge the post of the week which is about david potter not david burn no david potter you might not have noticed andrew
Andrew Keen
but i did notice it didn't seem particularly interesting or relevant but it's interesting and relevant for you i don't think
Keith Teare
for anybody else well you know david potter was uh very well known in the uk he ended up being sitting on the board of governors of the bank of england uh he started life in south africa uh uh and built the first handheld computer scion and he you know and passed away recently so i wanted to acknowledge
Andrew Keen
that yeah well you're losing all your friends you last week
Keith Teare
who did you lose we all lost our malik and we were malik and you know this week david potter who's gonna be next week keith harry kane oh let's hope not well actually sadly on that note andrew i don't know if you noticed but this morning um one of the south african team uh jayden adams 20 23 years old was found dead in cape town
Andrew Keen
Well, we better stop, Keith, because otherwise there's going to be more people dying around us. We will certainly be back. I know this week was what time it is next week. We'll be back at our regular time. Actually, we'll be slightly earlier, but we'll run the show on Saturday. As always, Keith don't die on me. We need you next week and we will talk again in seven days. Thank you so much.
Keith Teare
Bye.