Civilization: What Is Worth Doing?

Andrew Keen

Hello everybody. This day in history is Saturday, the 9th of May, although I might actually run this on the 10th of May. One of the things about time of course is it moves forward, although history itself isn't quite as Linear As Some People Think Earlier This Week I Did A Show With A Very Popular Podcast Historian Patrick Wyman Very Talented Man Based In Arizona We Did A Show Which I Entitled Why History Keeps Happening It Was Based On His New Book Fascinating New Book Lost Worlds How Humans Tried Failed Succeeded And Built Our World It's About The Unintended Consequences Of Civilization Of Why Some Civilizations Work Out And Some Don't What About The Unintended Consequences Of History Very Relevant These Days In Our AI Age Wyman's Tides Of History Is An Extremely Popular Podcast And We Ran The Show With The Title History Keeps Happening And It Seems To Be The Same has an editorial this week, Civilization, What Is Worth Doing, which in many ways addresses some of the themes that Patrick Wyman addresses in his new book and in our conversation. So Keith, is civilization linear? You're a progress man, aren't you? Do you believe in the end of history?

Keith Teare

Well, look, I mean, I think he defines civilizations, plural, coming and going, prospering and declining. I use the word slightly differently. I think it's a singular word for human progress collectively. So I wouldn't talk about the Egyptian civilization, although it was an empire or the Roman civilization. I think, you know, if you look at civilization as the entire It Is Fairly Linear Over The Long Term Let's Say 200 Years But It's Non Linear In The Short Term And So He's Quite Right That Most Of The History Of Progress Is A History Of Learning From Failure I Agree With That But It's Persistence In The Face Of Failure Which Is Striking Although

Andrew Keen

I don't want to put words into Patrick's mouth. He's got enough words of his own to put in his own mouth. But if you think of it as a journey, you don't know where you're going. So there's a storm going on. You may be in a vehicle, but you have no idea of direction. I think what's interesting about this journey

Andrew Keen

Coming Together Of Your Work And People Like Wyman's Keith Is That We're Living For Better Or Worse However You Think About Things I Don't Think Anyone Would Deny This At A Civilizational Moment More And More Pieces And A Lot Of The Articles That You Connect With This Week On That Was The Week Are About The Future Of Civilization Western Civilization Human Civilization Global Civilization Technological Civilization I Think Everyone, whatever side of the argument you are on when it comes to AI, we can all agree that we're at a fork in the road. Is that fair?

Keith Teare

Yeah, I think that's a good characterization. You know, it's an interesting discussion, your initial point about, you know, do we know where we're going? And my subtitle is, you know, what is worth doing, which implies that we should at least try to answer the question, where are we going? And I think, you know, depending on who you are, the answer might be yes or no. I think there are a group of people in society who think they know where they're going and have a plan. And there are others who are observers and passive in relationship to these changes. Most people probably are receiving the change as opposed to making it.

Andrew Keen

And That Is A Kind Of Key Distinction Although Most Of Us Don'T Do Newsletters Or Write Books Or Like Ezra Klein And Have All Sorts Of Platforms I Know You Linked With Ezra Klein This Week Who'S One Of Our Best I Think Most Articulate Observers On The Future Of Civilization Most People Just Don't Have The Time I Mean If You're Worried About Working Supporting Your Family You Can't Really Worry About The Future Of Civilization Can

Keith Teare

You Keith You Know I Find It Hard To Answer Because I Can Only Be Me And I Can Tell You My Brain Constantly Reinterprets The Present In The Context Of My View Of The Future I Do It All The Time I kind of have a constant view of the future that gets challenged every week. And I kind of take in what I take in and adjust what I think based on the information that's inbound. So I do think about the future. I think a lot of people think about the future. I think almost anyone that has the audacity to do something, you know, to have a plan and execute it is thinking about the future.

Andrew Keen

You're linking with others who are thinking about the future. The first is, I know he's a friend of yours, Norman Lewis, not really a tech writer. He has an interesting piece this week. The future is not scarce, our nerve is. He writes about a 1970s environmentalist called Paul Ehrlich, a Stanford biologist who is less well known now than he was back in the 70s. What Is Lewis's Point On Civilization And The Future?

Keith Teare

I Think His Point's Subtle And It's Really The Difference Between Technology And Human Goal Setting And Achievement And He's Trying To Distinguish Between Technology As A Good In And Of Itself And Technology As An Instrument Used By Human Agency And he uses Ulick as an example, a good example, of the ability to think, dream, imagine, and then make something happen within the constraints of science, of course. So it's very much about You Know Normans And I Know I've Known Norman For A Long Time I've Always If Norman If You're Listening To This I've Always Suspected Norman Is A Little Bit Anti-Tech

Andrew Keen

You Know Intuitively Everyone Keith Everyone Except Yourself Is Anti-Tech You Think

Keith Teare

I'm Anti-Tech But I Thought This Was A Really Good Piece That Properly Puts The

Andrew Keen

Balance Well It Reminds Us I Think That History Coming Back To Wyman I Mean Everything Changes Back In The 70s There Was The Assumption Of People Like Paul Ehrlich That

Andrew Keen

By Having Too Many People We Were Gonna Do Away With All The Earth's Resources You Never Hear About That Anymore And I Think That Comes Back To Wyman's Point About Its Unintended Consequences And Of Course The Great Debate These Days Is On AI And If Norman Lewis Is Right To Remind Us That We Usually Get It Wrong And The Ehrlich Certainly Kind Of Got It Wrong In The 70s Most Of Us Are Probably Getting It Wrong Today On AI Both The Doomers And The Optimists I Mean You're In The Optimist Camp Where Are You Least Confident Keith On Your Optimism When It Comes To AI Well You Can't Be

Keith Teare

Confident About Human Decision Making You Know You Can Be Confident On The Potential Of Technology It'S Very Hard To Be I Was The Week In The Week In The Week In The Week

Keith Teare

To See The Confusion That Reigns You're Blaming Other People You're Saying And I

Andrew Keen

Know One Of The Other Pieces You Linked To This Week Is By An Old Friend Of Mine And Of The Show Near It Weiss Black Once Called In From Her Car Firm When We Were Discussing Her What 10 Studies Reveal About AI Panic In The Media She Seems To Think And I Suspect Keith You Kind Of Agree With Her That A Lot Of The Doomerism Has Been Created By Media. So if things go wrong, are you suggesting that we blame the op-ed writers who are dark about the possibilities of AI?

Keith Teare

You know, I actually am not that much of a media basher. I do think the media plays a role. And I Do Think That Role Can Be Positive Or Negative And In The Case Of AI The Zeitgeist Is So Negative That Media Reflects That But I Do Think Media Mainly Reflects As Opposed To Creates Thought And I Do Think That This Negativity Around AI Is A Reasonable Reaction To Not Knowing And When You Don't Know You Can Believe Anything And so I think the proper state of most normal people's attitude to AI will be founded on not knowing and therefore subject to all kinds of influence, if you will. And most of the influence is on the negative side. So it's not a surprise. In the long run, and this is where being wrong in order to eventually be right, the Lewis point, In The Long Run AI Will Deliver Something Good Or Not And If It Does Opinions Will Change And So The Media Will Continue To Reflect You Know If That Were To Happen In The Positive Sense Media Would Become Very Positive So I Don't Think Of Media As Opinion Forming I Think Of It As Opinion Reflecting

Andrew Keen

One of the things that Wyman said in our conversation which I thought was really good was that we're always in the middle of history and I didn't quite say it I think he implied that we always think we're either at the beginning or the end I mean we've got the famous Fukuyama observation about the end of history which he didn't really quite mean in those terms but it became his phrase which made him famous and rather controversial at the same time One of the nice things though about The Point We're Living In At Least We're Having The Conversation Keith I Mean At Least People Are Beginning To Think And I Think Whatever You Think Of Ezra Klein He's Very Good At Laying Out The Possibilities Here He Did It In His Book Abundance He Had An Interesting Op-Ed In The Times This Week Which You Linked To Why The AI Job Apocalypse Probably Won't Happen The Reality Is Nobody Knows Klein The Greatest Economist In The World Krugman The Greatest Technologist Sam Altman Certainly Doesn't Know Dario Doesn't Know Even Demis Doesn't Know I Mean Nobody Knows That's That's Wyman's Point Well Let's Just Unpack Knowing In Quotes What Is

Keith Teare

Knowing Well Knowing Implies That There's Like A Secret The Future Has Already Happened And We Just Don't Know It Yet Right But It Isn't

Andrew Keen

Like That We Know You Know We're All On The Bus We Know Where We're Going But Only The Driver Knows And He's Not Telling Everybody Well That's Different Because The

Keith Teare

Driver Has A Route And A Plan And You Know Absent Some Catastrophe He's Going To Get There That's Not The Same With History History Is Contested And Therefore The Future Is A Variable And The Future That You Get Is The Future That Most People Make Happen And Most People Is Not Like Flat There's A Hierarchy It's More Like A Pyramid And Think Of The Pyramid As The Agents Of Change And At The Very Top There's A Small Number Of People Who Will Have A Much Bigger Influence On Change Than The People At The Bottom That's Just The Nature Of Change So Those Individuals Who Are Stepping Outside The Norms And Making Things Happen Those Are The People Who Make History But Do We Even

Andrew Keen

Know At This Point I Mean If We Said Who's Making History I Mean The Darius And The And The And The Altmans Would Obviously Come To Mind The Demis Hacepuses But Do We Even Have An Idea Keith In on May 9th, 2026, who's making our AI future? Could be someone we've never even heard of.

Keith Teare

There's completely contested versions of that. And so what you're really asking is who's going to win?

Andrew Keen

No, I'm not asking that. I'm asking who's actually making this history?

Keith Teare

Who's Determining Where We Go Well That's An Easy Question To Answer At One Level It's A Combination Of Entrepreneurs Like Musk For Example This Week Did A Deal With Dario Amadai To Give Anthropic A New Lease Of Life It's Those Kinds Of Decisions Well Some People Might Challenge The Idea That Anthropic Certainly Wasn't Dying Well Anthropic By Its Own Confession Was Struggling With Compute And It Didn't Have Enough Computers To Serve The Demand And You Know Musk Who On The Face Of It Has No Love Loss Between Him And Amidai But Is A Businessman There Was A Win Win Deal My Enemy Of My Enemy Is My Friend When It Comes But That Deal Is Making History That's An Example Of Making History And Now SpaceX In Response To That Changed Its Name From SpaceX To Space XAI and Musk earlier took the decision to fold XAI in with SpaceX and now is providing data centers for Anthropic thus making SpaceX part of the infrastructure solution along with Google and Amazon and others So That's Making History So History Is Made In A Whole Series Of Small Silicon

Andrew Keen

Valley History Some People Might Be Listening To This And Thinking Well Keith Teare Lives In Power Alto And He He's Always Had Elon Musk On The Brain So Whatever Elon

Keith Teare

Does That Week Is History Or Might Not Responding To Your Deeper Question Which Is How Is The Future Who's Making History Is What You Asked And I'm My Answer Is All Of These Little Decisions Impact What The Future Is Going To Look Like Whether You Make It Grandiose Or Not Doesn't Really Matter These Are The Decisions That Determine The Future When The Government This Week Said That It Wants Some Kind Of Understanding Of The Dangers Of Each New Model Prior To Them Being Released There Was A Three Day Back And Forth Debate About That And Eventually The Government Said They Don't Want To Become A Regulator They Just Want To Be Given A Heads Up So That They Can Patch Computer Software Before It's Vulnerable That Is History So That Was The Week In A Way Encapsulates This Week's Contribution To History

Andrew Keen

Yeah, you talk about regulation. One of the other pieces you link to is Esther Dyson, old friend of the show, old friend of mine, from a very distinguished technological intellectual dynasty. Her father was one of the most influential physicists of the 20th century. She talks about regulation. What is Esther saying? And coming back to the issue of regulation, was it a big Regulatory Week This Was The Week Where It Struck Me At Least You Never Know With Trump But He Seemed To Be Backing Off A Little Bit The Laissez Faire Attitude He Had Towards AI And Suggesting That Actually AI Needs To Be Regulated A Bit More Carefully Maybe It's Because Susie Wiles Now Is Dominating The Administration And The JD Vances Have Become Less Influential Yeah So Esther's Point Is A Good Point

Keith Teare

Which Is An Agent Has Been Built By A Person And Acts On Behalf Of A Person Or An Organization And The Two Should Be Coupled Together It Should Be Possible To Have Identity Ownership If You Will Over Agents Be Transparent As The Agent Moves Around Doing Things And She Talks A Little Bit About ICANN And Domain Names As A In Her View At Least Not A Perfect Solution She Is Looking For A Better Solution