Don't Stop Thinking About Tomorrow
That Was The Week 2024 #8
Don't Stop Thinking About Tomorrow
"Yesterday's Gone" is the next part of the song, repeated twice. That's about right, based on this week's developments.
Last week, we saw that OpenAI's Sora could produce video. This week, we learned that it can determine sounds to accompany the video. I know that because Dr. Jim Fan (@NVIDIA Research Manager & Lead of Embodied AI (GEAR Group). Creating foundation models for Agents, Robotics, Gaming.) posted examples on X. Here is one.
His full post or two of them joined together, is below in the reading.
Combine that with the other essays, and a picture of a bifurcation in tech trends begins to be obvious.
@ItsUrBoyEvan talks about the overarching impact of AI and vision-based spatial computing (the Vision Pro in particular) not needing a killer app because the canvas itself is the innovation, and everything will move to them.
The killer app, when it's defined as a single app that drives new hardware adoption, is kinda, maybe, bullshit. In my research, there doesn't appear to be a persistent pattern of this phenomenon. I've learned, instead, that whether a device will sell is just as much a question of hardware and developer ecosystem than that of killer application.
@andrewchen from A16Z has a short essay on X about the end of the mobile S curve and the beginning of the AI one.
Today, founders find themselves at a crossroads. Those who have hard-earned secrets in mobile apps will still find opportunities to use those secrets, but need to be mindful of the stage of S-curve they reside. They will have to be even more clever, do even more what's new, in order to break out. And for those who stand at the beginning of the AI revolution, it's easy to get started. But it's hard to ride the chaos and stay on top. And even harder when the novelty inevitably stops, as only the best products will win.
This idea that both share is that the beginning of new things has far fewer requirements to participate in than the later stage, which contrasts @tedgioia's essay on the state of culture.
Gioia notes that we are collectively moving to behaviors requiring less attention, and he characterizes this as post-entertainment or dopamine culture. His view:
Even the dumbest entertainment looks like Shakespeare compared to dopamine culture. You don't need Hamlet, a photo of a hamburger will suffice. Or a video of somebody twerking, or a pet looking goofy.
Of course, he is right about that phenomenon, but I would pick at it and point out that great culture coexists with it. I will go to Berkley Rep this weekend to see a play; my TikTok use does not preempt it. But more importantly, mainstream media and entertainment now have a very high bar to get attention, and late s curve challenges will likely result in higher quality content to be able to attract us.
@ProfGalloway compounds Gioia's point with a "Dopa" essay about gambling that was presented alongside the Superbowl on TV. He deep dives into the rise of gambling in live sport (and it won't stop there).
Gambling has moved from something you do in isolation - at a geographically remote casino, using an illegal bookie, or socially in the context of a special event - to something available 24/7 on your phone. That has predictably accelerated the gambling business's growth and brought billions into the sector. Just as banking's move to smartphones morphed a tech-bro incel panic room into a bank run, our frictionless proximity to wagering is having effects we haven't fully witnessed ... yet
These essays lay out two alternate universes. One is where you awake excited about your day in the morning, and another is where you wake up afraid to read about what comes next.
Both things are happening at the same time. But history is cruel to "end of s curve" ecosystems and very kind to "start of s curve" trends. That's why "Don't Stop Thinking About Tomorrow, Yesterday's Gone" summarizes my conclusions after this week's developments. Robotics seems quite close now, also.
Essays of the Week