Speaker 3
Don't stop thinking about tomorrow Don't stop, it'll soon begin It'll be better than before Yesterday
Words and timings
Don'tstopthinkingabouttomorrowDon'tstop,it'llsoonbeginIt'llbebetterthanbeforeYesterday
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Don't Stop Thinking About Tomorrow
Feb 24, 2024 ยท 2024 #8. Read the transcript grouped by speaker, inspect word-level timecodes, and optionally turn subtitles on for direct video playback
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Don't Stop Thinking About Tomorrow
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Speaker 3
If your life was bad to you Just think what tomorrow will do Don't stop thinking about tomorrow Don't stop, it'll soon be here It'll be better than before Yesterday's gone, yesterday's gone
Words and timings
IfyourlifewasbadtoyouJustthinkwhattomorrowwilldoDon'tstopthinkingabouttomorrowDon'tstop,it'llsoonbehereIt'llbebetterthanbeforeYesterday'sgone,yesterday'sgone
Speaker 3
All I want is to see you smile If it takes just a little while I know you don't believe that it's true I've never meant any harm to you Don't stop thinking about tomorrow
Words and timings
AllIwantistoseeyousmileIfittakesjustalittlewhileIknowyoudon'tbelievethatit'strueI'venevermeantanyharmtoyouDon'tstopthinkingabouttomorrow
Speaker 3
Don't Stop Thinking About Tomorrow
Words and timings
Don'tStopThinkingAboutTomorrow
Speaker 2
Hello everybody it is Friday the 23rd of February 2024 the last Friday in February and of course if it's Friday it must be That Was The Week our weekly show with my friend Keith Teare about the state of technology. We, Keith and I, can't stop thinking about tomorrow. That's the business of this show and the business of Silicon Valley. The real question is that when we think of tomorrow, there are two ways of thinking of it, either as a nightmare in dystopian terms or alternatively as a utopia, as a future where technology will solve all our big problems. And that is indeed the theme of this week's That Was The Week newsletter, Can't Stop Thinking About Tomorrow. So Keith, are we waking up in the middle of the night thinking about tomorrow in a cold sweat or are we excited about the promise?
Words and timings
HelloeverybodyitisFridaythe23rdofFebruary2024thelastFridayinFebruaryandofcourseifit'sFridayitmustbeThatWasTheWeekourweeklyshowwithmyfriendKeithTeareaboutthestateoftechnology.We,KeithandI,can'tstopthinkingabouttomorrow.That'sthebusinessofthisshowandthebusinessofSiliconValley.Therealquestionisthatwhenwethinkoftomorrow,therearetwowaysofthinkingofit,eitherasanightmareindystopiantermsoralternativelyasautopia,asafuturewheretechnologywillsolveallourbigproblems.Andthatisindeedthethemeofthisweek'sThatWasTheWeeknewsletter,Can'tStopThinkingAboutTomorrow.SoKeith,arewewakingupinthemiddleofthenightthinkingabouttomorrowinacoldsweatorareweexcitedaboutthepromise?
Speaker 1
so so our AI generated human being there is meant to be excited that's what my instruction was make him look excited yeah and he looks terrified the nightmare of AIR is whatever you ask it to do it does the opposite but you know the song can't stop thinking about tomorrow is that the right words I think that's right words and the next line is yesterday's gone and so Yesterday's Gone would almost be a better title this week because most of the articles or essays in the newsletter project forwards from today what kind of a future we're looking at and they're fairly substantive essays two of them are on the it's all going to be amazing side and two of them are on the it's all going to hell side so it was a split universe of course I favor the first two more than the second two but there you go and the title took You know, normally I spend a little bit of time on the title every week. This week I spent ages on the title. I couldn't figure out what it should be. And so I settled on it.
Words and timings
sosoourAIgeneratedhumanbeingthereismeanttobeexcitedthat'swhatmyinstructionwasmakehimlookexcitedyeahandhelooksterrifiedthenightmareofAIRiswhateveryouaskittodoitdoestheoppositebutyouknowthesongcan'tstopthinkingabouttomorrowisthattherightwordsIthinkthat'srightwordsandthenextlineisyesterday'sgoneandsoYesterday'sGonewouldalmostbeabettertitlethisweekbecausemostofthearticlesoressaysinthenewsletterprojectforwardsfromtodaywhatkindofafuturewe'relookingatandthey'refairlysubstantiveessaystwoofthemareontheit'sallgoingtobeamazingsideandtwoofthemareontheit'sallgoingtohellsidesoitwasasplituniverseofcourseIfavorthefirsttwomorethanthesecondtwobutthereyougoandthetitletookYouknow,normallyIspendalittlebitoftimeonthetitleeveryweek.ThisweekIspentagesonthetitle.Icouldn'tfigureoutwhatitshouldbe.AndsoIsettledonit.
Speaker 2
Did you wake up in the middle of the night, Keith, with the title? Is that the face of you? Amazing. Eureka face. Think you have found the title for this week?
Words and timings
Didyouwakeupinthemiddleofthenight,Keith,withthetitle?Isthatthefaceofyou?Amazing.Eurekaface.Thinkyouhavefoundthetitleforthisweek?
Speaker 1
Well, I did have a weird dream last night. Oh, tell us more. The overarching theme of the dream was that I was going back to my hometown that's a nightmare Keith isn't it yeah simultaneously with the reddit IPO and it turned out one of my school friends was the main lawyer on the reddit IPO and my brother was speaking at TEDx Scarborough it was a very weird dream right it truly is he didn't he didn't dream about Manchester United's young striker getting injured for the rest of the year
Words and timings
Well,Ididhaveaweirddreamlastnight.Oh,tellusmore.TheoverarchingthemeofthedreamwasthatIwasgoingbacktomyhometownthat'sanightmareKeithisn'tityeahsimultaneouslywiththeredditIPOanditturnedoutoneofmyschoolfriendswasthemainlawyerontheredditIPOandmybrotherwasspeakingatTEDxScarboroughitwasaveryweirddreamrightittrulyishedidn'thedidn'tdreamaboutManchesterUnited'syoungstrikergettinginjuredfortherestoftheyear
Speaker 2
I did not well it only for three games apparently well we'll see so we can't stop thinking about tomorrow Keith as you know a couple of the essays interesting essays all of them this week one by Evan Armstrong suggests that um the future is is not even AI it's the virtual reality which Apple's Vision Pro is realizing tell us more about this essay
Words and timings
Ididnotwellitonlyforthreegamesapparentlywellwe'llseesowecan'tstopthinkingabouttomorrowKeithasyouknowacoupleoftheessaysinterestingessaysallofthemthisweekonebyEvanArmstrongsuggeststhatumthefutureisisnotevenAIit'sthevirtualrealitywhichApple'sVisionProisrealizingtellusmoreaboutthisessay
Speaker 1
so he coins a phrase which is called the killer utility as opposed to the killer app and his entire essay is premised on the demand that the vision pro can only be as successful if he can figure out what the killer app is and the same with AI probably the same with web3 by the way that we've talked about a lot and he makes the point that there are some things where a killer app isn't required because the utility of the thing itself changes the game so profoundly that every app that used to exist in the past has to migrate to this new utility. And he thinks the Vision Pro and AI are utilities in that sense. They're foundational and will replace previous foundations, at least in part.
Words and timings
sohecoinsaphrasewhichiscalledthekillerutilityasopposedtothekillerappandhisentireessayispremisedonthedemandthatthevisionprocanonlybeassuccessfulifhecanfigureoutwhatthekillerappisandthesamewithAIprobablythesamewithweb3bythewaythatwe'vetalkedaboutalotandhemakesthepointthattherearesomethingswhereakillerappisn'trequiredbecausetheutilityofthethingitselfchangesthegamesoprofoundlythateveryappthatusedtoexistinthepasthastomigratetothisnewutility.AndhethinkstheVisionProandAIareutilitiesinthatsense.They'refoundationalandwillreplacepreviousfoundations,atleastinpart.
Speaker 2
Well, let's give credit where credit is due. The term killer app was popularized by by my Berkeley friend, Larry Downs, who had one of the first big tech hits in books in, I think it's from about just 1999, 2000, Unleashing the Killer App. What exactly is a killer app, Keith? Because not all our audience are as technologically sophisticated as you.
Words and timings
Well,let'sgivecreditwherecreditisdue.ThetermkillerappwaspopularizedbybymyBerkeleyfriend,LarryDowns,whohadoneofthefirstbigtechhitsinbooksin,Ithinkit'sfromaboutjust1999,2000,UnleashingtheKillerApp.Whatexactlyisakillerapp,Keith?Becausenotallouraudienceareastechnologicallysophisticatedasyou.
Speaker 1
So I have a good friend who I haven't seen for years. If he ever listens to this, hi, Dan. His name is Dan Brinklin. and Dan created the first ever spreadsheet for Windows and it was deemed the killer app. It was before Lotus 1-2-3 and certainly before Excel. It was the first ever spreadsheet where you could program numbers in cells and do calculations and everybody wanted to get an IBM PC to use VisiCalc. I think it was VisiCalc that he created with some other people and so the killer app is is something you want to use in software that compels you to buy the hardware or the platform that's a killer app and you know clearly I use Vision Pro here's my yeah you're you're one of the classic early adapt whatever if Apple came out with nappies or a diaper Keith and a digital diaper you would buy it so does this suggest that um
Words and timings
SoIhaveagoodfriendwhoIhaven'tseenforyears.Ifheeverlistenstothis,hi,Dan.HisnameisDanBrinklin.andDancreatedthefirsteverspreadsheetforWindowsanditwasdeemedthekillerapp.ItwasbeforeLotus1-2-3andcertainlybeforeExcel.ItwasthefirsteverspreadsheetwhereyoucouldprogramnumbersincellsanddocalculationsandeverybodywantedtogetanIBMPCtouseVisiCalc.IthinkitwasVisiCalcthathecreatedwithsomeotherpeopleandsothekillerappisissomethingyouwanttouseinsoftwarethatcompelsyoutobuythehardwareortheplatformthat'sakillerappandyouknowclearlyIuseVisionProhere'smyyeahyou'reyou'reoneoftheclassicearlyadaptwhateverifApplecameoutwithnappiesoradiaperKeithandadigitaldiaperyouwouldbuyitsodoesthissuggestthatum
Speaker 2
that the Apple device, the Vision Pro, currently is kind of useless because there is no killer app?
Words and timings
thattheAppledevice,theVisionPro,currentlyiskindofuselessbecausethereisnokillerapp?
Speaker 1
Well, his point's the opposite, that it doesn't need a killer app because it's so useful. And I'll tell you, last night I had a bit of downtime while my wife was doing something before we settled down and binge-watched some TV show. And I put the Vision Pro on and watched the IMAX trailer for the forthcoming Planet of the Apes movie.
Words and timings
Well,hispoint'stheopposite,thatitdoesn'tneedakillerappbecauseit'ssouseful.AndI'lltellyou,lastnightIhadabitofdowntimewhilemywifewasdoingsomethingbeforewesettleddownandbinge-watchedsomeTVshow.AndIputtheVisionProonandwatchedtheIMAXtrailerfortheforthcomingPlanetoftheApesmovie.
Speaker 2
oh my god Keith how old are you and the IMAX how old are you I'm I'm when it comes to movies about 12 and a half yeah but in real in real years you're closer to 70 than 60 right we won't give away your complete age I am very much watching virtual reality uh uh movies
Words and timings
ohmygodKeithhowoldareyouandtheIMAXhowoldareyouI'mI'mwhenitcomestomoviesabout12andahalfyeahbutinrealinrealyearsyou'recloserto70than60rightwewon'tgiveawayyourcompleteageIamverymuchwatchingvirtualrealityuhuhmovies
Speaker 1
but on but the key is on the IMAX app and the IMAX app is that your excuse is that what makes it acceptable because it was on the IMAX app well I also watched a wonderfully narrated journey through the universe that NASA had done for IMAX and and and why am I telling you this because My wife eventually came back in the room when we were going to now, so I took the Vision Pro off. We have a pretty impressive TV projector on our living room wall. It felt so underwhelming compared to what was on the Vision Pro.
Words and timings
butonbutthekeyisontheIMAXappandtheIMAXappisthatyourexcuseisthatwhatmakesitacceptablebecauseitwasontheIMAXappwellIalsowatchedawonderfullynarratedjourneythroughtheuniversethatNASAhaddoneforIMAXandandandwhyamItellingyouthisbecauseMywifeeventuallycamebackintheroomwhenweweregoingtonow,soItooktheVisionProoff.WehaveaprettyimpressiveTVprojectoronourlivingroomwall.ItfeltsounderwhelmingcomparedtowhatwasontheVisionPro.
Speaker 2
What does Janae think when she leaves the room and then she comes back and you're wearing this clunky Vision Pro device doesn't she think it's a bit weird I always slip it off before she enters the room oh my god we're going to quote you on that I always slip it off when she enters the room but you know if you're watching I don't know what you think about Keith's Vision Pro habit
Words and timings
WhatdoesJanaethinkwhensheleavestheroomandthenshecomesbackandyou'rewearingthisclunkyVisionProdevicedoesn'tshethinkit'sabitweirdIalwaysslipitoffbeforesheenterstheroomohmygodwe'regoingtoquoteyouonthatIalwaysslipitoffwhensheenterstheroombutyouknowifyou'rewatchingIdon'tknowwhatyouthinkaboutKeith'sVisionProhabit
Speaker 1
but the point is the entire platform gives you those kinds of feelings a lot across a range of different experiences so I agree with him that it doesn't need to kill a rap I mean your living room is a tech paradise you've got as big a television and sophisticated electronics as anyone are you saying that the Vision Pro
Words and timings
butthepointistheentireplatformgivesyouthosekindsoffeelingsalotacrossarangeofdifferentexperiencessoIagreewithhimthatitdoesn'tneedtokillarapImeanyourlivingroomisatechparadiseyou'vegotasbigatelevisionandsophisticatedelectronicsasanyoneareyousayingthattheVisionPro
Speaker 2
is leaps and bounds beyond that?
Words and timings
isleapsandboundsbeyondthat?
Speaker 1
Leaps and bounds. It's not even close. I mean, the only limitation is that it's a singular experience just for one person, so you can't really use it in a social setting. But for an individual experience of media, it... How big is your physical TV? About 120 inches. And does that make the 120-inch TV, the physical TV, redundant?
Words and timings
Leapsandbounds.It'snotevenclose.Imean,theonlylimitationisthatit'sasingularexperiencejustforoneperson,soyoucan'treallyuseitinasocialsetting.Butforanindividualexperienceofmedia,it...HowbigisyourphysicalTV?About120inches.Anddoesthatmakethe120-inchTV,thephysicalTV,redundant?
Speaker 1
it's not a physical TV it's a projector so it's it projects onto a screen on the wall but yeah it makes it redundant every TV in the house actually because we have a bedroom TV if I lived alone I wouldn't need any TVs I just use this I also by the way I wouldn't need any computer screens so it makes all hardware redundant except this one particular device it makes the the it makes the front end the sound system is redundant audio devices are redundant um screens are redundant even uh you know at a stretch you could say mouse and keyboard although it does actually work better with them with a keyboard and a and a trackpad so is Evan Armstrong's point that this thing is
Words and timings
it'snotaphysicalTVit'saprojectorsoit'sitprojectsontoascreenonthewallbutyeahitmakesitredundanteveryTVinthehouseactuallybecausewehaveabedroomTVifIlivedaloneIwouldn'tneedanyTVsIjustusethisIalsobythewayIwouldn'tneedanycomputerscreenssoitmakesallhardwareredundantexceptthisoneparticulardeviceitmakesthetheitmakesthefrontendthesoundsystemisredundantaudiodevicesareredundantumscreensareredundantevenuhyouknowatastretchyoucouldsaymouseandkeyboardalthoughitdoesactuallyworkbetterwiththemwithakeyboardandaandatrackpadsoisEvanArmstrong'spointthatthisthingis
Speaker 2
There is no need for a killer app because it's in itself a killer piece of hardware.
Words and timings
Thereisnoneedforakillerappbecauseit'sinitselfakillerpieceofhardware.
Speaker 1
Yeah, what he calls a killer utility. And he says the same about AI, that if you think of the list of the top 50 things people are doing with AI, the fact that there is a list of 50 and probably 1,000 is the story. You don't need a single killer application. Although I do think that ChatGPT's chat interface was the killer app in the sense that it made it accessible through a question and answer system.
Words and timings
Yeah,whathecallsakillerutility.AndhesaysthesameaboutAI,thatifyouthinkofthelistofthetop50thingspeoplearedoingwithAI,thefactthatthereisalistof50andprobably1,000isthestory.Youdon'tneedasinglekillerapplication.AlthoughIdothinkthatChatGPT'schatinterfacewasthekillerappinthesensethatitmadeitaccessiblethroughaquestionandanswersystem.
Speaker 2
And is Evan Armstrong, I assume, coming back to the excited man in your AI-produced arc for the newsletter this week, is Evan Armstrong... full of excitement about this he's celebratory yeah he's an optimist for sure he's definitely an optimist and he and he he likes it and he's characterizing what he thinks it is that's basically the and he there's no nostalgia for him for the the physical world a world of immediate the sensory world as opposed to putting these devices between our eyes and the world
Words and timings
AndisEvanArmstrong,Iassume,comingbacktotheexcitedmaninyourAI-producedarcforthenewsletterthisweek,isEvanArmstrong...fullofexcitementaboutthishe'scelebratoryyeahhe'sanoptimistforsurehe'sdefinitelyanoptimistandheandhehelikesitandhe'scharacterizingwhathethinksitisthat'sbasicallytheandhethere'snonostalgiaforhimforthethephysicalworldaworldofimmediatethesensoryworldasopposedtoputtingthesedevicesbetweenoureyesandtheworld
Speaker 1
Well, I don't think he's even framing that conversation. If you asked him, you know, would you like to be cut off from the century world permanently, I'm sure he'd say no, like any of us would. But if you compare the Vision Pro to watching a TV, it's a no-brainer. And by the way, $3,500, you know, when I first bought a flat-screen TV, it cost more than that.
Words and timings
Well,Idon'tthinkhe'sevenframingthatconversation.Ifyouaskedhim,youknow,wouldyouliketobecutofffromthecenturyworldpermanently,I'msurehe'dsayno,likeanyofuswould.ButifyoucomparetheVisionProtowatchingaTV,it'sano-brainer.Andbytheway,$3,500,youknow,whenIfirstboughtaflat-screenTV,itcostmorethanthat.
Speaker 2
You should have bought two. You could have got one for Jeanne, and then you could have both sat there with these devices, Keith. yeah but even then the streams you could have got no what do your boys think of this by the way you got three boys um teenagers slightly older in their in their in their early 20s do they put these things on they've all tried it they all think it's amazing but none of them
Words and timings
Youshouldhaveboughttwo.YoucouldhavegotoneforJeanne,andthenyoucouldhavebothsattherewiththesedevices,Keith.yeahbuteventhenthestreamsyoucouldhavegotnowhatdoyourboysthinkofthisbythewayyougotthreeboysumteenagersslightlyolderintheirintheirintheirearly20sdotheyputthesethingsonthey'vealltriedittheyallthinkit'samazingbutnoneofthem
Speaker 1
none of them are in a position to buy one they know I'm not going to buy one for them so they their brain kind of flips the switch and they don't lust after it is there a coolness or an uncool factor here are there the 20-somethings I mean some of them can afford it are they buying it or is it just guys like you I doubt any of them are buying it because you know the younger you are the more social you are I think and this is essentially not a social device it's a private device
Words and timings
noneofthemareinapositiontobuyonetheyknowI'mnotgoingtobuyoneforthemsotheytheirbrainkindofflipstheswitchandtheydon'tlustafteritisthereacoolnessoranuncoolfactorherearetherethe20-somethingsImeansomeofthemcanafforditaretheybuyingitorisitjustguyslikeyouIdoubtanyofthemarebuyingitbecauseyouknowtheyoungeryouarethemoresocialyouareIthinkandthisisessentiallynotasocialdeviceit'saprivatedevice
Speaker 2
So it locks you into your own senses. Well, lots more on that. And what about Chen? He also has an interesting take. Andrew Chen, he sees, as you say, the end of the mobile S-curve and the beginning of the AI one. What's an S-curve?
Words and timings
Soitlocksyouintoyourownsenses.Well,lotsmoreonthat.AndwhataboutChen?Healsohasaninterestingtake.AndrewChen,hesees,asyousay,theendofthemobileS-curveandthebeginningoftheAIone.What'sanS-curve?
Speaker 1
So an S-curve is a way of characterizing the history of a paradigm.
Words and timings
SoanS-curveisawayofcharacterizingthehistoryofaparadigm.
Speaker 1
So if you think of mobile as a specific stage in history that roughly starts in 2007 with the iPhone, although somewhat arguably starts earlier than that. But the mass market for mobile certainly starts in 2007. And he's saying it's now at the point where the S, which is a kind of a up and to the right curve, but on an S shape, has now peaked and there won't be any more growth in mobile. but the AI curve is only at the beginning and these S curves are another way of thinking about growth and if you're a venture capitalist growth of value and he's saying that there are still people who will make money from launching mobile apps but the bar is very high whereas if you get into AI the bar is very low to be you know because it's just at the beginning you can do things that are interesting right away and so he's basically characterizing the end of an era and the start of a new era which parallels uh what what the previous author was talking about Evan Armstrong because in a way he's saying it's a new era as well although Armstrong's focus on the Vision Pro
Words and timings
Soifyouthinkofmobileasaspecificstageinhistorythatroughlystartsin2007withtheiPhone,althoughsomewhatarguablystartsearlierthanthat.Butthemassmarketformobilecertainlystartsin2007.Andhe'ssayingit'snowatthepointwheretheS,whichisakindofaupandtotherightcurve,butonanSshape,hasnowpeakedandtherewon'tbeanymoregrowthinmobile.buttheAIcurveisonlyatthebeginningandtheseScurvesareanotherwayofthinkingaboutgrowthandifyou'reaventurecapitalistgrowthofvalueandhe'ssayingthattherearestillpeoplewhowillmakemoneyfromlaunchingmobileappsbutthebarisveryhighwhereasifyougetintoAIthebarisverylowtobeyouknowbecauseit'sjustatthebeginningyoucandothingsthatareinterestingrightawayandsohe'sbasicallycharacterizingtheendofaneraandthestartofanewerawhichparallelsuhwhatwhatthepreviousauthorwastalkingaboutEvanArmstrongbecauseinawayhe'ssayingit'saneweraaswellalthoughArmstrong'sfocusontheVisionPro
Speaker 2
how would that fit in with the end of the mobile s curve and the beginning of the ai one i mean vision pro is in parallel to the ai age isn't it yeah he well evan armstrong sees them as two separate things and i think chen would as well he's only focused on ai chen
Words and timings
howwouldthatfitinwiththeendofthemobilescurveandthebeginningoftheaioneimeanvisionproisinparalleltotheaiageisn'tityeahhewellevanarmstrongseesthemastwoseparatethingsandithinkchenwouldaswellhe'sonlyfocusedonaichen
Speaker 1
whereas Armstrong characterized them as being in the same camp because they're both what he calls killer utilities.
Words and timings
whereasArmstrongcharacterizedthemasbeinginthesamecampbecausethey'rebothwhathecallskillerutilities.
Speaker 2
What would you say is the quintessential mobile company? I would have thought Facebook probably.
Words and timings
Whatwouldyousayisthequintessentialmobilecompany?IwouldhavethoughtFacebookprobably.
Speaker 1
Well, also Arm, Qualcomm, Apple. Obviously Apple.
Words and timings
Well,alsoArm,Qualcomm,Apple.ObviouslyApple.
Speaker 2
Android.
Words and timings
Android.
Speaker 1
Samsung. Samsung for sure, yeah.
Words and timings
Samsung.Samsungforsure,yeah.
Speaker 2
And then the networking players, the Verizons of the world. And then, I mean, obviously for the AI, the earliest AI company you've talked about this is OpenAI. There are some trying to get from mobile to AI like Google.
Words and timings
Andthenthenetworkingplayers,theVerizonsoftheworld.Andthen,Imean,obviouslyfortheAI,theearliestAIcompanyyou'vetalkedaboutthisisOpenAI.TherearesometryingtogetfrommobiletoAIlikeGoogle.
Speaker 1
Yeah. Yeah, well, Google had a terrible week with AI this week when it should have been an awesome week. We've heard that story before. But we really don't know the companies yet. I was reminded of, you remember Macromedia? Yeah. Mark Cantor did Macromedia and you know at that time bandwidth wasn't good enough to stream animated video or apps so everything was put on CDs and the cloud came later and streaming came later and now everything you could do with Macromedia you can do at the center of the network streaming to the edge. AI is kind of the opposite. Everything to do with AI requires big data centers and GPUs that Nvidia produced.
Words and timings
Yeah.Yeah,well,GooglehadaterribleweekwithAIthisweekwhenitshouldhavebeenanawesomeweek.We'veheardthatstorybefore.Butwereallydon'tknowthecompaniesyet.Iwasremindedof,yourememberMacromedia?Yeah.MarkCantordidMacromediaandyouknowatthattimebandwidthwasn'tgoodenoughtostreamanimatedvideoorappssoeverythingwasputonCDsandthecloudcamelaterandstreamingcamelaterandnoweverythingyoucoulddowithMacromediayoucandoatthecenterofthenetworkstreamingtotheedge.AIiskindoftheopposite.EverythingtodowithAIrequiresbigdatacentersandGPUsthatNvidiaproduced.
Speaker 2
And of course the big news of the week in business terms was Did NVIDIA crack a $2 trillion market cap? It certainly did, yeah.
Words and timings
AndofcoursethebignewsoftheweekinbusinesstermswasDidNVIDIAcracka$2trillionmarketcap?Itcertainlydid,yeah.
Speaker 1
It's gone back a bit now.
Words and timings
It'sgonebackabitnow.
Speaker 2
So NVIDIA is also a company of the AI age. Who was the dominant chip maker of the mobile age?
Words and timings
SoNVIDIAisalsoacompanyoftheAIage.Whowasthedominantchipmakerofthemobileage?
Speaker 1
Was it Intel? No, Arm was the architect. but Arm doesn't make chips it licenses designs and then everybody who built hardware licensed the Arm designs for their mobile phones including Apple so Apple Silicon is actually Apple's version of Arm's designs and by the way Arm has doubled in value in the last six months
Words and timings
WasitIntel?No,Armwasthearchitect.butArmdoesn'tmakechipsitlicensesdesignsandtheneverybodywhobuilthardwarelicensedtheArmdesignsfortheirmobilephonesincludingApplesoAppleSiliconisactuallyApple'sversionofArm'sdesignsandbythewayArmhasdoubledinvalueinthelastsixmonths
Speaker 2
And then Chen is celebrating this in entrepreneurial terms in terms of the opportunity for innovators. Is that correct?
Words and timings
AndthenCheniscelebratingthisinentrepreneurialtermsintermsoftheopportunityforinnovators.Isthatcorrect?
Speaker 1
Yeah, he's putting down a roadmap to entrepreneurs to focus on AI because the competition is way less. The bar is lower in terms of doing things that no one's done before. And the S curve has only got an upside to it at this point, probably for the next couple of decades.
Words and timings
Yeah,he'sputtingdownaroadmaptoentrepreneurstofocusonAIbecausethecompetitioniswayless.Thebarislowerintermsofdoingthingsthatnoone'sdonebefore.AndtheScurvehasonlygotanupsidetoitatthispoint,probablyforthenextcoupleofdecades.
Speaker 2
and of course not everyone agrees your image for this week was of a man waking up in the middle of the night looking very excited but for many we're on the verge of a darkness a new age of darkness you refer to an essay by Ted Joa who's a very influential music writer on our state of culture Joa is not alone in Worrying About the Current Condition of Culture. What does he say in his essay?
Words and timings
andofcoursenoteveryoneagreesyourimageforthisweekwasofamanwakingupinthemiddleofthenightlookingveryexcitedbutformanywe'reonthevergeofadarknessanewageofdarknessyourefertoanessaybyTedJoawho'saveryinfluentialmusicwriteronourstateofcultureJoaisnotaloneinWorryingAbouttheCurrentConditionofCulture.Whatdoeshesayinhisessay?
Speaker 1
So he's focused on an equally real trend, which is the trend for human beings to spend a lot of time on short-form entertainment, in quotes, largely peer-produced, like on TikTok. And he calls it the dopamine culture. He has a very nice graphic that shows for every human endeavor whether it's sport or gaming or movies that human beings are gravitating towards small bite-sized chunks that in and of themselves are irrelevant from a cultural point of view he calls it the dopamine culture where you just want to get that dopamine hit by laughing or um screaming at or uh lusting after whatever is little piece of morsel if you like of content that you're consuming um and and and he's characterizing that as um not unlike your book The Cult of the Amateur Andrew I think there's a similarity in a way between his narrative and that book where he's decrying the end of real culture the depth that real culture is associated with
Words and timings
Sohe'sfocusedonanequallyrealtrend,whichisthetrendforhumanbeingstospendalotoftimeonshort-formentertainment,inquotes,largelypeer-produced,likeonTikTok.Andhecallsitthedopamineculture.Hehasaverynicegraphicthatshowsforeveryhumanendeavorwhetherit'ssportorgamingormoviesthathumanbeingsaregravitatingtowardssmallbite-sizedchunksthatinandofthemselvesareirrelevantfromaculturalpointofviewhecallsitthedopamineculturewhereyoujustwanttogetthatdopaminehitbylaughingorumscreamingatoruhlustingafterwhateverislittlepieceofmorselifyoulikeofcontentthatyou'reconsumingumandandandhe'scharacterizingthatasumnotunlikeyourbookTheCultoftheAmateurAndrewIthinkthere'sasimilarityinawaybetweenhisnarrativeandthatbookwherehe'sdecryingtheendofrealculturethedepththatrealcultureisassociatedwith
Speaker 2
Is there any truth to this, do you think? You know in your editorial that you can have your cake and eat it, you can go on TikTok and then go to the Berkeley Rep at the weekend. Is that what you believe?
Words and timings
Isthereanytruthtothis,doyouthink?Youknowinyoureditorialthatyoucanhaveyourcakeandeatit,youcangoonTikTokandthengototheBerkeleyRepattheweekend.Isthatwhatyoubelieve?
Speaker 1
Well, I think what he's saying describes a real set of events, a real set of trends. Human beings seem to like you know short funny or interesting snips it's the meme-ification of culture or of the world everything becomes a meme so people like that but my objection is I don't think that means they don't like deeper culture I mean look at look at the success of some of the movies that were recognized at the BAFTAs last weekend uh the movies that won are all you know independent movies with with super deep narratives um and many of the people who like those movies probably also look at TikTok every now and then so I think that what's happening is culture is diversifying in terms of what people like to consume and they've got more choice I do think there's an unanticipated consequence that Giolla would like which is it means that the The quality bar for movies, theatre, music actually goes up because the time you have to spend on it is less, so you're going to be more choosy. So I would imagine this has a positive effect on the quality of TV or movies.
Words and timings
Well,Ithinkwhathe'ssayingdescribesarealsetofevents,arealsetoftrends.Humanbeingsseemtolikeyouknowshortfunnyorinterestingsnipsit'sthememe-ificationofcultureoroftheworldeverythingbecomesamemesopeoplelikethatbutmyobjectionisIdon'tthinkthatmeanstheydon'tlikedeepercultureImeanlookatlookatthesuccessofsomeofthemoviesthatwererecognizedattheBAFTAslastweekenduhthemoviesthatwonareallyouknowindependentmovieswithwithsuperdeepnarrativesumandmanyofthepeoplewholikethosemoviesprobablyalsolookatTikTokeverynowandthensoIthinkthatwhat'shappeningiscultureisdiversifyingintermsofwhatpeopleliketoconsumeandthey'vegotmorechoiceIdothinkthere'sanunanticipatedconsequencethatGiollawouldlikewhichisitmeansthattheThequalitybarformovies,theatre,musicactuallygoesupbecausethetimeyouhavetospendonitisless,soyou'regoingtobemorechoosy.SoIwouldimaginethishasapositiveeffectonthequalityofTVormovies.
Speaker 2
I mean, Ted Giordano is an old guy who's written a classic history of jazz. Is he just another old guy who can't deal with new technology and the Cultural Ramifications. Every time there's new tech, whether it's television or radio or print or the internet or social media or now AI, you have guys like Ted Jolo who are claiming that it represents the end of culture, the end of the world as we know it.
Words and timings
Imean,TedGiordanoisanoldguywho'swrittenaclassichistoryofjazz.Ishejustanotheroldguywhocan'tdealwithnewtechnologyandtheCulturalRamifications.Everytimethere'snewtech,whetherit'stelevisionorradioorprintortheinternetorsocialmediaornowAI,youhaveguyslikeTedJolowhoareclaimingthatitrepresentstheendofculture,theendoftheworldasweknowit.
Speaker 1
yeah i think if it's that binary then then you'd have to say yes but i don't you know for him it is actually quite binary so maybe that is exactly the right characterization of of him that said the trends he's noticing are not false they're real and and so the question then becomes what does it mean well you know when was the last book you read Keith you're always telling me you don't have time to read books you know i i a long time ago i do still buy books by the way but have you read a book this century this century oh definitely several many but when was the last time you read a book cover to cover i think it was um uh that book about the 2008 crash uh i'm blanking on the author and the name back in what 2010 No, he wrote it later than that, but about 2015.
Words and timings
yeahithinkifit'sthatbinarythenthenyou'dhavetosayyesbutidon'tyouknowforhimitisactuallyquitebinarysomaybethatisexactlytherightcharacterizationofofhimthatsaidthetrendshe'snoticingarenotfalsethey'rerealandandsothequestionthenbecomeswhatdoesitmeanwellyouknowwhenwasthelastbookyoureadKeithyou'realwaystellingmeyoudon'thavetimetoreadbooksyouknowiialongtimeagoidostillbuybooksbythewaybuthaveyoureadabookthiscenturythiscenturyohdefinitelyseveralmanybutwhenwasthelasttimeyoureadabookcovertocoverithinkitwasumuhthatbookaboutthe2008crashuhi'mblankingontheauthorandthenamebackinwhat2010No,hewroteitlaterthanthat,butabout2015.
Speaker 2
And is that because you don't have the time, the patience? You think you can learn about the world from tweets or TikToks?
Words and timings
Andisthatbecauseyoudon'thavethetime,thepatience?YouthinkyoucanlearnabouttheworldfromtweetsorTikToks?
Speaker 1
Well, I read substantive internet stuff every day. By the way, I do buy books and I skim them. I bought three or four books around universal basic income and Modern Monetary Theory to understand what was going on and I kind of speed read all of them so I'm kind of lying when I say I don't read books but if you say am I sitting down in an afternoon and reading a book cover to cover like fiction for us The Living was the last book I did that with and Ready Player One I also read So the state of the culture is dark Keith are people waking up in the middle of the night in a state of sweat I think there's a sense of despair by intellects who can't really engage
Words and timings
Well,Ireadsubstantiveinternetstuffeveryday.Bytheway,IdobuybooksandIskimthem.IboughtthreeorfourbooksarounduniversalbasicincomeandModernMonetaryTheorytounderstandwhatwasgoingonandIkindofspeedreadallofthemsoI'mkindoflyingwhenIsayIdon'treadbooksbutifyousayamIsittingdowninanafternoonandreadingabookcovertocoverlikefictionforusTheLivingwasthelastbookIdidthatwithandReadyPlayerOneIalsoreadSothestateofthecultureisdarkKeitharepeoplewakingupinthemiddleofthenightinastateofsweatIthinkthere'sasenseofdespairbyintellectswhocan'treallyengage
Speaker 2
with modern... For writers, filmmakers, musicians, it's a tough time. I mean, we've talked about this, journalists. Someone was saying to me this week that they know someone on the Pulitzer Prize Committee for investigative journalism books and there are 50% less books this year because there are probably more than 50% less investigative journalists. and of course the publishing industry is in its own crisis a kind of spiraling crisis and if everyone's like you then the business is just going to go away the industry will crash because no one's going to buy these books yeah no I still I doubt that's going to happen I think people do still buy books and I think people still go watch movies you know yeah yeah
Words and timings
withmodern...Forwriters,filmmakers,musicians,it'satoughtime.Imean,we'vetalkedaboutthis,journalists.SomeonewassayingtomethisweekthattheyknowsomeoneonthePulitzerPrizeCommitteeforinvestigativejournalismbooksandthereare50%lessbooksthisyearbecausethereareprobablymorethan50%lessinvestigativejournalists.andofcoursethepublishingindustryisinitsowncrisisakindofspiralingcrisisandifeveryone'slikeyouthenthebusinessisjustgoingtogoawaytheindustrywillcrashbecausenoone'sgoingtobuythesebooksyeahnoIstillIdoubtthat'sgoingtohappenIthinkpeopledostillbuybooksandIthinkpeoplestillgowatchmoviesyouknowyeahyeah
Speaker 1
Not Always Good Ones. I mean, look at Barbie, the highest grossing movie ever.
Words and timings
NotAlwaysGoodOnes.Imean,lookatBarbie,thehighestgrossingmovieever.
Speaker 2
Oh, no, Barbie's not a bad film. I mean, you may not like it. It's not a bad film. I mean, in its own way, it's quite a serious film.
Words and timings
Oh,no,Barbie'snotabadfilm.Imean,youmaynotlikeit.It'snotabadfilm.Imean,initsownway,it'squiteaseriousfilm.
Speaker 1
It is a serious film, yeah, but it's evidence of the fact that the world isn't falling, the sky isn't falling.
Words and timings
Itisaseriousfilm,yeah,butit'sevidenceofthefactthattheworldisn'tfalling,theskyisn'tfalling.
Speaker 2
Well, another way of looking at it is from our old friend, Professor Galloway, Prof Galloway, who talks about the the Jello talked about the dopamine culture he talks about the dopa impact on online gambling which is a real thing particularly in a post Super Bowl week
Words and timings
Well,anotherwayoflookingatitisfromouroldfriend,ProfessorGalloway,ProfGalloway,whotalksaboutthetheJellotalkedaboutthedopamineculturehetalksaboutthedopaimpactononlinegamblingwhichisarealthingparticularlyinapostSuperBowlweek
Speaker 1
yeah yeah it's a new thing in the states you and me are both of British origin and we both probably experienced our parents betting on horse races every weekend I did anyway so gambling and sport in in the UK are very normal here not so much so suddenly we're starting to see ESPN now has a gambling operation and I think about two-thirds of the states it is now legal to gamble online and you know DraftKings and apps like that are having their heyday because of it and Galloway is basically pointing to the the dopamine
Words and timings
yeahyeahit'sanewthinginthestatesyouandmearebothofBritishoriginandwebothprobablyexperiencedourparentsbettingonhorseraceseveryweekendIdidanywaysogamblingandsportinintheUKareverynormalherenotsomuchsosuddenlywe'restartingtoseeESPNnowhasagamblingoperationandIthinkabouttwo-thirdsofthestatesitisnowlegaltogambleonlineandyouknowDraftKingsandappslikethatarehavingtheirheydaybecauseofitandGallowayisbasicallypointingtothethedopamine
Speaker 2
driven um sucking of money out of your wallet by bad people who just want you to uh gamble yeah I mean my son has a friend um a woman and whenever I see her she spent seems to spend all her time talking about and she gabbles on English football she seems to spend all her time doing that Amish is interested in the games too, but is this another generational thing?
Words and timings
drivenumsuckingofmoneyoutofyourwalletbybadpeoplewhojustwantyoutouhgambleyeahImeanmysonhasafriendumawomanandwheneverIseehershespentseemstospendallhertimetalkingaboutandshegabblesonEnglishfootballsheseemstospendallhertimedoingthatAmishisinterestedinthegamestoo,butisthisanothergenerationalthing?
Speaker 1
You know, I think it's hope, isn't it? I mean, I remember my mum used to go to bingo twice a week and used to bet on horses at the weekend and she did these things called accumulators, which in America are called something else, where all the things you predict have to happen for you to win. and it's basically the lottery it's like the lottery and I remember her anticipation about the possibility of winning brought some light to her otherwise difficult life and and and so Galloway's got it right it is it is a kind of a dopamine thing and then you lose and as a kid I just observed the losing so I never really got into gambling in fact I went to the other side I was a bingo caller for a long time calling numbers out to people losing money
Words and timings
Youknow,Ithinkit'shope,isn'tit?Imean,Iremembermymumusedtogotobingotwiceaweekandusedtobetonhorsesattheweekendandshedidthesethingscalledaccumulators,whichinAmericaarecalledsomethingelse,whereallthethingsyoupredicthavetohappenforyoutowin.andit'sbasicallythelotteryit'slikethelotteryandIrememberheranticipationaboutthepossibilityofwinningbroughtsomelighttoherotherwisedifficultlifeandandandsoGalloway'sgotitrightitisitisakindofadopaminethingandthenyouloseandasakidIjustobservedthelosingsoIneverreallygotintogamblinginfactIwenttotheothersideIwasabingocallerforalongtimecallingnumbersouttopeoplelosingmoney
Speaker 2
I wonder whether anything's really changed you talk about in your in your editorial the two alternate universes one of a drug-like addiction to short-form culture and inane culture and taking risk but I mean this was something that Aldous Huxley warned about in the 1930s I'm not sure it was a hundred years ago Does anything really change? I mean, this is just the digital version of SOMA that Huxley warned us about.
Words and timings
Iwonderwhetheranything'sreallychangedyoutalkaboutinyourinyoureditorialthetwoalternateuniversesoneofadrug-likeaddictiontoshort-formcultureandinanecultureandtakingriskbutImeanthiswassomethingthatAldousHuxleywarnedaboutinthe1930sI'mnotsureitwasahundredyearsagoDoesanythingreallychange?Imean,thisisjustthedigitalversionofSOMAthatHuxleywarnedusabout.
Speaker 1
Remind me of what Huxley said, because I read Huxley.
Words and timings
RemindmeofwhatHuxleysaid,becauseIreadHuxley.
Speaker 2
Imagine the world where everyone took something called SOMA, which made them cheer.
Words and timings
ImaginetheworldwhereeveryonetooksomethingcalledSOMA,whichmadethemcheer.
Speaker 1
That was the drug.
Words and timings
Thatwasthedrug.
Speaker 2
And they watched mechanical golf on imaginary television. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Which isn't that different from...
Words and timings
Andtheywatchedmechanicalgolfonimaginarytelevision.Yeah,yeah,yeah,yeah.Whichisn'tthatdifferentfrom...
Speaker 1
X or TikTok I would say that is one side of what is happening but if you think it's the whole then you're missing what the future is going to look like it's basically it's a longer conversation than we can have on the show but I'll say this we live at a time when people are alienated more than ever from their lives
Words and timings
XorTikTokIwouldsaythatisonesideofwhatishappeningbutifyouthinkit'sthewholethenyou'remissingwhatthefutureisgoingtolooklikeit'sbasicallyit'salongerconversationthanwecanhaveontheshowbutI'llsaythisweliveatatimewhenpeoplearealienatedmorethaneverfromtheirlives
Speaker 2
What does that mean, alienated from?
Words and timings
Whatdoesthatmean,alienatedfrom?
Speaker 1
They don't get love or an enjoyment out of their existence. And so they take recourse in private experiences that isolate them from all of that. and I think that is symptomatic of the time we're living in which is the end of the post-war boom, a difficult global situation. Which war? The post-Second World War 30-year boom in the economy. that you and I were born into.
Words and timings
Theydon'tgetloveoranenjoymentoutoftheirexistence.Andsotheytakerecourseinprivateexperiencesthatisolatethemfromallofthat.andIthinkthatissymptomaticofthetimewe'relivinginwhichistheendofthepost-warboom,adifficultglobalsituation.Whichwar?Thepost-SecondWorldWar30-yearboomintheeconomy.thatyouandIwereborninto.
Speaker 2
I wonder though, I mean, you pick four very good essays and you're always putting your fingers on excellent essays. That's why your newsletter is so valuable. I think everyone should subscribe. But isn't that evidence that, okay, we may not have Shakespeare anymore, but we still have thoughtful people like Scott Galloway and Ted Jola writing interesting pieces?
Words and timings
Iwonderthough,Imean,youpickfourverygoodessaysandyou'realwaysputtingyourfingersonexcellentessays.That'swhyyournewsletterissovaluable.Ithinkeveryoneshouldsubscribe.Butisn'tthatevidencethat,okay,wemaynothaveShakespeareanymore,butwestillhavethoughtfulpeoplelikeScottGallowayandTedJolawritinginterestingpieces?
Speaker 1
Yeah, absolutely. Absolutely. That's why I'm not as pessimistic. I mean, you look at Substack and it's a goldmine of quality writing.
Words and timings
Yeah,absolutely.Absolutely.That'swhyI'mnotaspessimistic.Imean,youlookatSubstackandit'sagoldmineofqualitywriting.
Speaker 2
Although this week is one of the few weeks Keith didn't have anything about Substack.
Words and timings
AlthoughthisweekisoneofthefewweeksKeithdidn'thaveanythingaboutSubstack.
Speaker 1
Which is even more impressive because they made some announcements and I ignored them. Yeah, well.
Words and timings
WhichisevenmoreimpressivebecausetheymadesomeannouncementsandIignoredthem.Yeah,well.
Speaker 2
that's another story another week your startup of the week it actually touches back on the Galloway piece Apple Sports yeah what why is this interesting I mean Startup and Apple obviously don't go together, but what is Apple doing with Apple Sports that makes it worthy of this enormous award, Keith, that has such significance? I'm sure that Eddie Cue now is going to be so thrilled. He's going to be begging you for more stuff.
Words and timings
that'sanotherstoryanotherweekyourstartupoftheweekitactuallytouchesbackontheGallowaypieceAppleSportsyeahwhatwhyisthisinterestingImeanStartupandAppleobviouslydon'tgotogether,butwhatisAppledoingwithAppleSportsthatmakesitworthyofthisenormousaward,Keith,thathassuchsignificance?I'msurethatEddieCuenowisgoingtobesothrilled.He'sgoingtobebeggingyouformorestuff.
Speaker 1
I have a lot of advice for Eddie when it comes to sports, but Apple doesn't usually do Point Apps, apps that are specific to a single thing, unless they're utilities like the calendar or email or a clock. So Apple Sports competes with ESPN directly. And of course, Apple sponsors the MLS, which kicked off this week with Lionel Messi's team winning 2-0. And it looks to me as if... You're the only person in the world who's interested in that. it looks to me as if apple is on a journey where it understands the power of live sports to drive uh consumer experiences and you know uh uh live sports is more dopamine heavy than almost anything yeah i mean it sounds like gambling you put together apple we began this conversation talking about
Words and timings
IhavealotofadviceforEddiewhenitcomestosports,butAppledoesn'tusuallydoPointApps,appsthatarespecifictoasinglething,unlessthey'reutilitieslikethecalendaroremailoraclock.SoAppleSportscompeteswithESPNdirectly.Andofcourse,ApplesponsorstheMLS,whichkickedoffthisweekwithLionelMessi'steamwinning2-0.Anditlookstomeasif...You'retheonlypersonintheworldwho'sinterestedinthat.itlookstomeasifappleisonajourneywhereitunderstandsthepoweroflivesportstodriveuhconsumerexperiencesandyouknowuhuhlivesportsismoredopamineheavythanalmostanythingyeahimeanitsoundslikegamblingyouputtogetherapplewebeganthisconversationtalkingabout
Speaker 2
The Vision Pro. I was just in Mississippi a few weeks ago. We went to a very weird casino near the coast. Is this new commitment of Apple Sports, of Apple to sports, real-time sports information, and their commitment to The Vision Pro, they're not coincidental. We'll put these devices on and we'll be perpetually in a casino, won't we Keith? Our own personal casino.
Words and timings
TheVisionPro.IwasjustinMississippiafewweeksago.Wewenttoaveryweirdcasinonearthecoast.IsthisnewcommitmentofAppleSports,ofAppletosports,real-timesportsinformation,andtheircommitmenttoTheVisionPro,they'renotcoincidental.We'llputthesedevicesonandwe'llbeperpetuallyinacasino,won'tweKeith?Ourownpersonalcasino.
Speaker 1
Well, the Apple Sports app does include betting odds. So you might be surprised.
Words and timings
Well,theAppleSportsappdoesincludebettingodds.Soyoumightbesurprised.
Speaker 2
I mean, that's why most people use it. Why else would you use it?
Words and timings
Imean,that'swhymostpeopleuseit.Whyelsewouldyouuseit?
Speaker 1
Just to follow your team.
Words and timings
Justtofollowyourteam.
Speaker 2
But you know, that's not true. The vast majority of people are betting.
Words and timings
Butyouknow,that'snottrue.Thevastmajorityofpeoplearebetting.
Speaker 1
Well, so but you're right. I think that it won't be they're already producing they shot a movie during the playoffs of the MLS last season using 3D cameras and they're about to release it on the Vision Pro which is by the way you I've always thought of this concept which we talked about called digital seats which I imagined as picking a seat in the stadium they've redefined it as meaning pick any vantage point including flying above the game so you can look at the game from any vantage point you know in a kind of 180 degree bubble if you will and and I do believe that sports is going to be the killer app, to disagree with our friend Evan, that will bring lots of people to the Vision Pro.
Words and timings
Well,sobutyou'reright.Ithinkthatitwon'tbethey'realreadyproducingtheyshotamovieduringtheplayoffsoftheMLSlastseasonusing3Dcamerasandthey'reabouttoreleaseitontheVisionProwhichisbythewayyouI'vealwaysthoughtofthisconceptwhichwetalkedaboutcalleddigitalseatswhichIimaginedaspickingaseatinthestadiumthey'veredefineditasmeaningpickanyvantagepointincludingflyingabovethegamesoyoucanlookatthegamefromanyvantagepointyouknowinakindof180degreebubbleifyouwillandandIdobelievethatsportsisgoingtobethekillerapp,todisagreewithourfriendEvan,thatwillbringlotsofpeopletotheVisionPro.
Speaker 2
Unfortunately, quite literally, given the impact of gambling on people, it will be in some ways the killer app. So just explain what Apple Sports does. It competes directly, as you say, with ESPN. What is Apple doing that isn't currently in the market?
Words and timings
Unfortunately,quiteliterally,giventheimpactofgamblingonpeople,itwillbeinsomewaysthekillerapp.SojustexplainwhatAppleSportsdoes.Itcompetesdirectly,asyousay,withESPN.WhatisAppledoingthatisn'tcurrentlyinthemarket?
Speaker 1
Nothing. It's launching an app that has a narrow purpose initially, which is to drive people to subscribe to Apple TV.
Words and timings
Nothing.It'slaunchinganappthathasanarrowpurposeinitially,whichistodrivepeopletosubscribetoAppleTV.
Speaker 2
Aren't they going to get into trouble from the regulators? Isn't this a classic example where ESPN will sue Apple and say at the Apple Store, you don't see us, you only see the Apple Sports app?
Words and timings
Aren'ttheygoingtogetintotroublefromtheregulators?Isn'tthisaclassicexamplewhereESPNwillsueAppleandsayattheAppleStore,youdon'tseeus,youonlyseetheAppleSportsapp?
Speaker 1
It's interesting because they made a decision which is... Not totally unique, but fairly unique for Apple. This app has to be opted into. You have to download it and go and search for it and find it. It isn't going to become a default.
Words and timings
It'sinterestingbecausetheymadeadecisionwhichis...Nottotallyunique,butfairlyuniqueforApple.Thisapphastobeoptedinto.Youhavetodownloaditandgoandsearchforitandfindit.Itisn'tgoingtobecomeadefault.
Speaker 2
So what's the point of it for them? Where's the business?
Words and timings
Sowhat'sthepointofitforthem?Where'sthebusiness?
Speaker 1
The business is that they've invested by some accounts a billion dollars into Major League Soccer. and they're looking and it costs about $40 a season to subscribe to Major League Soccer for that you see all the games and I think they're using the app as a driver of potential subscribers into the Apple TV universe you didn't you didn't respond to my rather barbed remark Keith about Major League Soccer in the US you being the only person watching is there really a market for this
Words and timings
Thebusinessisthatthey'veinvestedbysomeaccountsabilliondollarsintoMajorLeagueSoccer.andthey'relookinganditcostsabout$40aseasontosubscribetoMajorLeagueSoccerforthatyouseeallthegamesandIthinkthey'reusingtheappasadriverofpotentialsubscribersintotheAppleTVuniverseyoudidn'tyoudidn'trespondtomyratherbarbedremarkKeithaboutMajorLeagueSoccerintheUSyoubeingtheonlypersonwatchingistherereallyamarketforthis
Speaker 1
I'm actually pretty surprised that there is.
Words and timings
I'mactuallyprettysurprisedthatthereis.
Speaker 1
The better teams in Major League Soccer are getting crowds of between 40,000 and 60,000 people showing up, which means it's bigger than basketball and baseball.
Words and timings
ThebetterteamsinMajorLeagueSocceraregettingcrowdsofbetween40,000and60,000peopleshowingup,whichmeansit'sbiggerthanbasketballandbaseball.
Speaker 2
Is it getting appropriated or embraced by different cultural communities in Southern California or Texas or South Florida?
Words and timings
IsitgettingappropriatedorembracedbydifferentculturalcommunitiesinSouthernCaliforniaorTexasorSouthFlorida?
Speaker 1
I can tell you that the earthquakes, San Jose earthquakes, where I had a season ticket a couple of years, it's about 50-50 Latino and white. That probably is about right. I think there may be some places like Miami where it's more heavily Latino.
Words and timings
Icantellyouthattheearthquakes,SanJoseearthquakes,whereIhadaseasonticketacoupleofyears,it'sabout50-50Latinoandwhite.Thatprobablyisaboutright.IthinktheremaybesomeplaceslikeMiamiwhereit'smoreheavilyLatino.
Speaker 2
I have to admit I'd rather look at TikTok than the Major League Soccer in America but maybe that's the quality of the game is poor but if you're an American I don't know I don't know you know it's probably better than the Mexican league it's all right we're gonna look at the Mexican viewers Keith what a terrible thing to say well if you're Mexican I didn't say that that was Keith Teare finally and you're always a good sport here Keith because Your day job is as the CEO of SignalRank and you don't always stuff stuff about the markets and investment and venture capital in, but your X of the week is, it's by one of your old friends, Paki McCormack, who often pops up on this. It's an interesting X. He says, I'm quoting him here, venture capital gets a lot of shit, but venture capital rocks. What's Paki saying that's so interesting this week, Keith?
Words and timings
IhavetoadmitI'dratherlookatTikTokthantheMajorLeagueSoccerinAmericabutmaybethat'sthequalityofthegameispoorbutifyou'reanAmericanIdon'tknowIdon'tknowyouknowit'sprobablybetterthantheMexicanleagueit'sallrightwe'regonnalookattheMexicanviewersKeithwhataterriblethingtosaywellifyou'reMexicanIdidn'tsaythatthatwasKeithTearefinallyandyou'realwaysagoodsporthereKeithbecauseYourdayjobisastheCEOofSignalRankandyoudon'talwaysstuffstuffaboutthemarketsandinvestmentandventurecapitalin,butyourXoftheweekis,it'sbyoneofyouroldfriends,PakiMcCormack,whooftenpopsuponthis.It'saninterestingX.Hesays,I'mquotinghimhere,venturecapitalgetsalotofshit,butventurecapitalrocks.What'sPakisayingthat'ssointerestingthisweek,Keith?
Speaker 1
so he basically wrote a review of the performance of venture capital as an asset class compared to others it's a Substack newsletter that he writes and this was a tweet to promote it and he goes into a lot of detail about the Impact of Venture Capital on the Future. He doesn't really focus on individual fund returns. He focuses on the tolerance for losing money being the price you pay for changing the world. And you end up making money as well.
Words and timings
sohebasicallywroteareviewoftheperformanceofventurecapitalasanassetclasscomparedtoothersit'saSubstacknewsletterthathewritesandthiswasatweettopromoteitandhegoesintoalotofdetailabouttheImpactofVentureCapitalontheFuture.Hedoesn'treallyfocusonindividualfundreturns.Hefocusesonthetoleranceforlosingmoneybeingthepriceyoupayforchangingtheworld.Andyouendupmakingmoneyaswell.
Speaker 2
Very different from your mother working in the food factory in Scarborough and then wasting her money on bingo.
Words and timings
VerydifferentfromyourmotherworkinginthefoodfactoryinScarboroughandthenwastinghermoneyonbingo.
Speaker 1
way better exactly way better what's the difference though because most people even in venture lose most gambling still isn't it oh it's definitely a form of gambling but the proportion of winners compared to gambling is much higher and the amount of the total winnings are bigger than the total money staked which is different than gambling and what's happened Keith you used to
Words and timings
waybetterexactlywaybetterwhat'sthedifferencethoughbecausemostpeopleeveninventurelosemostgamblingstillisn'titohit'sdefinitelyaformofgamblingbuttheproportionofwinnerscomparedtogamblingismuchhigherandtheamountofthetotalwinningsarebiggerthanthetotalmoneystakedwhichisdifferentthangamblingandwhat'shappenedKeithyouusedto
Speaker 2
rhapsodize about venture capital becoming more democratic so that women like your mother would be able to get a bit of the action. Is that happening or is still, according to Paki, he talks about venture capital being the best asset class there is. Is that because it's still controlled by the Andreessens and the Fred Wilsons of the world?
Words and timings
rhapsodizeaboutventurecapitalbecomingmoredemocraticsothatwomenlikeyourmotherwouldbeabletogetabitoftheaction.Isthathappeningorisstill,accordingtoPaki,hetalksaboutventurecapitalbeingthebestassetclassthereis.Isthatbecauseit'sstillcontrolledbytheAndreessensandtheFredWilsonsoftheworld?
Speaker 1
yeah my view on democratization is slightly coming from a different angle and it doesn't contradict this it's an adjacency it's not a replacement venture capital basically is smart individuals investing other smart individuals using their experience to allocate the capital and that probably doesn't go away what what what the bigger question is who benefits from the growth in value that accrues and so far at least retail investors normal people they can only invest after a company becomes public and so most of the growth has already happened by then my view is that that line will get pushed backwards by various mechanisms by various people single rank is one of them but there's others
Words and timings
yeahmyviewondemocratizationisslightlycomingfromadifferentangleanditdoesn'tcontradictthisit'sanadjacencyit'snotareplacementventurecapitalbasicallyissmartindividualsinvestingothersmartindividualsusingtheirexperiencetoallocatethecapitalandthatprobablydoesn'tgoawaywhatwhatwhatthebiggerquestioniswhobenefitsfromthegrowthinvaluethataccruesandsofaratleastretailinvestorsnormalpeopletheycanonlyinvestafteracompanybecomespublicandsomostofthegrowthhasalreadyhappenedbythenmyviewisthatthatlinewillgetpushedbackwardsbyvariousmechanismsbyvariouspeoplesinglerankisoneofthembutthere'sothers
Speaker 2
I was going to throw you the best bone you're ever going to get on a Friday afternoon. You mentioned SignalRank, you're the founder and CEO. Is SignalRank the killer app of the venture economy, Keith? No, but it's a very... No, I gave you, you've got to say yes to that.
Words and timings
Iwasgoingtothrowyouthebestboneyou'reevergoingtogetonaFridayafternoon.YoumentionedSignalRank,you'rethefounderandCEO.IsSignalRankthekillerappoftheventureeconomy,Keith?No,butit'savery...No,Igaveyou,you'vegottosayyestothat.
Speaker 1
No, because I don't think it is a killer app. It's a platform that's going to make venture investing a lot more predictable.
Words and timings
No,becauseIdon'tthinkitisakillerapp.It'saplatformthat'sgoingtomakeventureinvestingalotmorepredictable.
Speaker 2
and what's the killer app there in adventure or is there one the killer app adventure money
Words and timings
andwhat'sthekillerappthereinadventureoristhereonethekillerappadventuremoney
Speaker 3
If you wake up and don't wanna smile If it takes just a little while Open your eyes and look at the day You'll see things in a different way Don't stop thinking about tomorrow Don't stop, it'll soon begin It'll be better than before Yesterday's gone
Words and timings
Ifyouwakeupanddon'twannasmileIfittakesjustalittlewhileOpenyoureyesandlookatthedayYou'llseethingsinadifferentwayDon'tstopthinkingabouttomorrowDon'tstop,it'llsoonbeginIt'llbebetterthanbeforeYesterday'sgone
Speaker 3
If your life was bad to you Just think what tomorrow will do Don't stop thinking about tomorrow Don't stop it will soon be here It will be better than before Yesterday's gone, yesterday's gone
Words and timings
IfyourlifewasbadtoyouJustthinkwhattomorrowwilldoDon'tstopthinkingabouttomorrowDon'tstopitwillsoonbehereItwillbebetterthanbeforeYesterday'sgone,yesterday'sgone
Speaker 3
Don't Stop Thinking About Tomorrow
Words and timings
Don'tStopThinkingAboutTomorrow
Speaker 3
It'll be better than before Yesterday's gone, yesterday's gone Don't stop thinking about tomorrow Don't stop, it'll soon begin It'll be better than before Yesterday's gone, yesterday's gone
Words and timings
It'llbebetterthanbeforeYesterday'sgone,yesterday'sgoneDon'tstopthinkingabouttomorrowDon'tstop,it'llsoonbeginIt'llbebetterthanbeforeYesterday'sgone,yesterday'sgone