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Andrew Keen
What makes the sky blue?
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Andrew Keen
Hello, everybody. It's that time of the week again. That Was The Week, our weekly technology summary with my old friend Keith Teare, publisher of That Was The Week newsletter. Keith has some big news this week, at least according to his headline. Humans create intelligence. And now, he says, everybody can access it with, you know what, artificial intelligence, Keith argues. And it seems kind of self-evident, but it's an interesting idea. He says that he believes that humans need access to intelligence because human knowledge should not be, and I'm quoting him exactly, should not be trapped in Inside experts, institutions, or companies. In other words, what we're talking about now, when it comes to AI, is a radical democratization of intelligence. Everybody has it, and it's a theme that... is in a lot of the articles he connects with this week. Noah Smith, for example, also, like Keith, believes, I think, in the democratization of intelligence. He talks about the end of the age of heroes. So, Keith, we're living through historic times. Is that fair? You sometimes accuse me of mischaracterizing what you've written or said, but are we talking about the radical democratization of intelligence?
Keith Teare
I think you've got to distinguish between individual contribution to intelligence and collective intelligence. We're not going to ever democratize individual contribution. That is where experts live and belong. And, you know, some individuals contribute more to collective intelligence than others.
Andrew Keen
Like you and I.
Keith Teare
Exactly. So that's always going to be true. But the sum total of all intelligence made up of everybody's contribution, and everybody just doesn't mean living humans, but all humans ever, that is really the meaning of the word intelligence when thought of as a collective, a word for the collective sum of all progress today. And it's that that needs to be distributed. And up until now, that would have been impossible. You know, it would have been encyclopedias, libraries, books, Maybe search engines. What we have for the first time with AI is the ability to aggregate, distill, digest, and then leverage intelligence. And it's now cheap enough that billions of people get access to it. Ultimately, it should be cheap enough that everyone gets access to it. That isn't my wish. It's almost like the inevitable endgame of what AI is. It uplifts every individual to the level of what previously only a wealthy individual would have been able to have access to.
Andrew Keen
Well, it's not just wealthy. I mean, this idea, and I'm going to quote it again, human intelligence should not be trapped inside experts. I mean, an expert... Of course, historically, at least in the modern age, to become an expert, you had to go to university, you had to work hard. There were more or less successful experts, more or less authoritative experts. You said earlier that there's still going to be experts. What kind of experts if, in your view, human knowledge shouldn't be trapped inside them?
Keith Teare
I think the same way there's always been experts. I mean, look, if two different people look at the output of an AI conversation about, let's say, viruses, an expert in viruses is going to have a very different understanding than somebody who isn't an expert in viruses. So experts don't go away. In fact, explosives, if anything, get elevated.
Andrew Keen
I mean, you can't have it both ways. Noah Smith doesn't try to have it both ways. In his End of the Age of Heroes, he talks about essentially, or he predicts, the end of mathematical heroes. I'm not sure he's particularly unhappy about that. He said few of us really did get to be heroes in the age of science, and now nobody's gonna be. And he said it's not, I'm quoting his end, he said it's not so bad really, never, and I'm quoting him, most people never get the chance to be heroes. Truck drivers don't, financial advisors don't, executive assistants don't. They have to find meaning just from being regular people, from taking care of their kids, having friends, having hobbies, joining civic organizations, getting involved in politics and so on. It's not such a terrible fate. So is this not such a terrible fate, Keith, the fate of all of us in this age of radical democratization of intelligence?
Keith Teare
Yeah, I kind of disagree with Noah Smith in one detail.
Keith Teare
If we're talking about the sum of human intelligence, I agree with him. We can all benefit from that. The lowest of the low and the highest of the high equally can benefit from that. Where I disagree with him is there will still be heroes because individual intelligence doesn't go away. It actually gets amplified. And so think about math, his area of focus, math. I do not believe AI will mostly solve new math problems. There's no evidence yet that AI can create new knowledge, new intelligence. What it can do is understand and distribute existing intelligence. And it will still take individuals to go beyond. And there will be individuals that do. And in fact, they'll do it more because the AI will level them up to the understanding of what is already understood and known. So their starting point For innovating will be much higher. And so there will still be heroes. I think he's wrong about that.
Andrew Keen
Well, in a sense, then we're starting all over again, a fresh slate. And this was another Theme that you pick up on in your newsletter this week. You connect with an interview that Yasha Munk made of the great MIT economist Darren Akamoglu, who has a new book out. The book is called What Happened to Liberal Democracy? And it's really a book about the opportunity in AI. Akamoglu also had a good article in The Atlantic summarizing his book. Like you, he recognizes this radical democratization of intelligence with AI. And he talks about, I'm not sure if you read the Atlantic piece, but he talks about what he wants to see as a radical pro-worker AI. Do you share what Akamoglu is arguing if you believe that we still live in an age of experts?
Keith Teare
No, I completely disagree with it. I put it in because I disagree with it. I think the, let's call it fetishization of workers, it's almost like the middle class worship of the working class as some kind of romantic, iconic group of people that should be preserved is both paternalistic, but also just historically inaccurate. The history of The working class has been that it grew in order that it could shrink.
Keith Teare
It grew through the industrial revolution and he's quite right about that. And wages became stabilized and standardized to some extent through things like minimum wage. But the idea that the wage represents some kind of progress is only true if you look backwards at feudalism or early capitalism. The wage is symptomatic of a power relationship between the employers and the employees.
Keith Teare
And what technology is doing, he calls it severing that relationship. It's completely removing that relationship. The whole idea of labor and capital is now Open to question as whether that's the future organization of society. And that's a good thing. And unfortunately, a lot of the left, you know, they make permanent what is temporary.
Keith Teare
And the wage capital relationship is temporary.
Andrew Keen
So let's be concrete here. He says, Silicon Valley's attention needs to be shifted towards pro-worker AI. And I'm quoting him here from his Atlantic piece. He says, starting at the international level, the US and Europe should create AI agencies that can generate incentives such as grant programs or public competitions for technologists to develop models that are designed to expand workers' capabilities. You would disagree with that?
Keith Teare
Completely disagree with it. What's happening now? Is the end of the working class. Not the preservation of the working class or the looking after the working class, which is why I call it paternalistic. The working class is going to be replaced because there won't be one. There will be robotics. There will be AI. There will not be traditional wage labor jobs. And that's a good thing. Looked at from a progressive point of view, When you want to take, you know, my aspiration as a working class kid growing up in a council estate in England was to not be working class. I didn't want people seeking to make me permanently working class. I didn't want to be working class. And now, for the first time in history, it's actually...
Andrew Keen
Yeah, but how many of the kids you grew up with in Yorkshire ended up in Palo Alto?
Keith Teare
Why is that relevant?
Andrew Keen
Well, because it's a bit of a lottery. I mean, if many of them did well, I mean, you've always said to me that most of the people you grew up with, what are they all doing now?
Keith Teare
Well, they're doing better than they were doing when I was a kid, I can tell you that, because life in general is better than it used to be. But that's kind of a micro point. The macro point, which is, I think, more fundamental to his argument, is that As automation kicks in, human labor diminishes. That's inevitable.
Andrew Keen
So what happens? Okay, so you don't agree with Akamoglu. So what about Smith's point about heroism has to change? Do you agree? I mean, how are we supposed to value people in this new age where intelligence is, at least according to guys of optimists like you, is abundant? Well, there's no scarcity of intelligence.
Keith Teare
Actually, you're now reinforcing why I chose the title this week, Humans Create Intelligence. There is no such thing as intelligence separate from humans. And heroes defined by Noah are those humans who contribute more to the collective intelligence than others. They don't go away. They absolutely don't go away. AI doesn't replace innovation. It's just a tool for innovation. And so this whole idea of a counterposition between, and the word AI and the word intelligence are not the same word. Intelligence is 100% human, and AI is a tool created by humans to distill, digest, and distribute intelligence. That's a very, very important distinction. And what both Noah and, I can't pronounce his name.
Andrew Keen
Hakamoglu.
Keith Teare
Hakamoglu are doing is they're papering over that distinction between AI and intelligence. Intelligence is only human. And therefore, the idea that humans will cease to contribute to it is just not true.
Andrew Keen
Yeah, and the title of the interview with Munch on persuasion is why liberalism has become a victim of its own success. And I wonder, I mean, this is a bigger point. I wonder whether liberal ideology, the dominant ideology of the last two or three hundred years, Which is built around the self and the ability of individuals to create and recreate themselves. I wonder how this is going to be impacted by AI, whether we become more collective. It seems to be the central long-term question of the AI age.
Keith Teare
I actually think the opposite. I think we become more individual. I mean, I can just... Tell you my own experience of this.
Keith Teare
So my hard drive ran out of space a week ago, and it's a Mac, right? So normally you can't upgrade a Mac's hard drive, you have to go and buy a new one. Or you clean it out. So what I decided is to take the step of upgrading the hard drive in the Mac, which is doable, it's just difficult. And to do that, to wipe out all of the stuff on the hard drive. And so I said to Claude, please back up the AI part of the hard drive in such a way that we can put it back afterwards, almost like a brain transplant from robot A into robot B. And over the course of 48 hours, it completely backed up Then I upgraded the hard drive.
Keith Teare
Then it restored the clawed, the open AI, the open claw brain, if you will, back to the new hard drive.
Andrew Keen
So, okay, I can imagine. So what's your point? Your point is that everyone's going to be able to do that?
Keith Teare
My point is that as an individual,
Andrew Keen
I was empowered to
Keith Teare
do something that I couldn't have done on my own. And so the idea that the self is undermined, no, the self is Completely expanded.
Andrew Keen
So I think the fear would be, and you know, we seem to repeat this conversation every week, the fear of people like Akamoglu is that the reality on the ground headlines today of fewer jobs being created. For all the theory, in practice, inequality is being compounded and that the AI age will only, it might create a few cute tears who get out of their council estates and become wealthy Silicon Valley entrepreneurs, but most people For one reason or other won't take advantage of that. It's only going to compound inequality. So if you reject... Hold on.
Keith Teare
If you reject... Justify that, Andrew. I think that's just blatantly not true.
Andrew Keen
Well, maybe you should get out of Palo Alto. I'm not sure that that's necessarily typical of the rest of America. But if you reject Akamoglu's point that there's no need for pro-worker AI, are you suggesting the government should just stand back and just let this revolution happen?
Keith Teare
What even is pro-worker AI? This is complete bullshit.
Andrew Keen
But are you suggesting then that no one should do anything?
Keith Teare
I don't want you to echo his words. Tell me what that means. What did you I mean, you need to read bullshit. There's no such thing.
Andrew Keen
Well, I'm quoting him here. He says, Pro worker AI could boost productivity across other services.
Keith Teare
What is pro worker AI?
Andrew Keen
In education, a model trained on relevant curriculum material might allow teachers to spot patterns in test results and tailor lesson plans for particular groups of students who tend to make the same mistakes. So he's not necessarily completely disagreeing with you. He's simply saying that AI can help Teachers, for example, become better teachers. But I think what he wants then, and I'm quoting him here again, a pro-worker AI could create good service jobs for workers who aren't college educated and thus begin to uproot the inequality that has been entrenched in the post-industrial economy. Do you disagree that With that, that there is, that inequality has been entrenched in the post-industrial economy. I mean, I think that's just a reality. I mean, that's a quantifiable reality.
Keith Teare
I think what it's doing is, is Anthro... How do you say that word? Turning AI into a living being. Anthro... I can't say it. Can you say it?
Andrew Keen
No.
Keith Teare
You know what I mean? The idea that there could be a pro-worker AI or an anti-worker AI, the very framing of AI as being, you know, we can choose, it's a mistake. I actually agree with his point, and he's really making my point, that AI creates better individuals, better experts. He's more agreeing with me than Noah Smith who said heroes go away. I think probably every single teacher becomes a hero in a world of AI.
Andrew Keen
I'm going to try and get him on. I'm talking to some of his publicists. The book, What Happened to Liberal Democracy, is out next week. I mean, he's a Nobel Prize winning economist. So hopefully we can get him on. So maybe we can continue this conversation. But coming back to your... If you don't agree with Akamoglu that the state government's international institution should be creating what he calls pro-worker AI, do you believe that this is just going to somehow magically work itself out, that everyone's going to be empowered with this new intelligence and will have a Hollywood ending to all this?
Keith Teare
Well, I think as a starting point, you have to start not with the word worker, but with the word people. I think AI is for people. The class struggle doesn't really play a role.
Andrew Keen
Okay, but that's a semantic. It doesn't matter what you call workers or people.
Keith Teare
It really isn't semantic, Andrew. So, you know, I watch kids in school using AI in class in a way that previously they couldn't. And by the way, that's even in East Palo Alto.
Andrew Keen
Have you been to East Palo Alto?
Keith Teare
Many, many times. In fact, East Palo Alto...
Andrew Keen
We won't repeat our East Palo Alto story.
Keith Teare
East Palo Alto comes to me, right? My middle son is...
Andrew Keen
Don't let your kids drive your fancy cars in East Palo Alto. That's all I can say.
Keith Teare
Not such fancy car, but...
Andrew Keen
Well, fancy in East Palo
Keith Teare
Alto. You know, you're making the mistake of branding an individual that's done well as somehow... Not capable of understanding poor people. And I don't agree with him.
Andrew Keen
I didn't say that.
Keith Teare
But you're still not answering my question.
Andrew Keen
If you reject Akamoglu's argument about creating, quote, unquote, pro-worker AI, you don't like his language, fair enough. And you don't like his policies, fair enough. What are you suggesting? What needs to happen? We just stand back and let it all happen? Let this upheaval... Will happen and it'll work out well?
Keith Teare
Well, you use the word it and upheaval. I don't think AI is an upheaval. I do think it's change. And there is a distinction between upheaval and change, but they can often appear the same. I think what's happening is that the entire human race is going to Have a starting point in life from the first moment you start to ask questions, you're going to be able to get answers that would have been impossible for most people most of the time. And, you know, that is true. That's going to be true when I go to South Africa and I see, you know, young Africans with Android phones having Claude on their phone. That is a revelation. It's huge and positive. And so it's an upheaval in one way, but it's a very positive...
Andrew Keen
So you're not answering my question.
Keith Teare
We had
Andrew Keen
the same predictions when Google had its search engine. Everyone said, well, we have free access to search and now everyone's going to have access, which they did. And it's still free, but I'm not sure it necessarily compounded opportunity. But Sorry, go on.
Keith Teare
Well, I think I am answering your question, to be honest. It's just you don't like the answer. But what is the answer? The answer is that, yes, we should allow it to happen. And as far as the word upheaval is appropriate, it's a good upheaval.
Andrew Keen
Okay. Well, I know you're not keen on it. And I'm in some way sympathetic with you on this about... This reaction against data centers, one of the other pieces in this week's newsletter is a piece about the number of quote unquote regular, I don't know what a regular person is as opposed maybe to an irregular person or a hero, but the number of regular people being arrested for protesting data centers is astounding. I don't know what exactly those numbers are, but I know you feel that people are probably not wise to protest. What's your take on this and this growing movement, for better or worse, against data centers?
Keith Teare
Look, I think it's a bit of a bandwagon. Erin Brockovich was on Bill Maher's Real Time last week talking about data centers, and she is trying to bring class action lawsuits and is kind of portraying data centers as being morally worthy of being a target in the same way that drug companies were in her previous years. Yeah, she was on my
Andrew Keen
show a few years ago. She's actually very good. I mean, very entertaining.
Keith Teare
I'm not sure if she's right on this particularly. Yeah, so there is a bandwagon. I think it's largely politicians-led and stirred up by politicians in local areas. And I noticed that Ezra Klein this week has started to include anti-big tech language into his narrative around abundance. And is also jumping on that bandwagon about data centers. So, unfortunately, this is the left thinking they have a cause celebre against the Republicans. And I think it's incredibly regressive, but it's quite real. And it, of course, keys into some genuine concerns in local areas about... You know, similar to, say, windmill power generators kind of uglifying the neighborhood.
Andrew Keen
So, you know, I take your point. I think, Demonstra, you may be right in some ways. But isn't that, doesn't, if we collectively are able to reshape the conversation, say, on data centers, don't we need something like Akumoglu's I know you don't like the term, but pro-worker AI or pro-people AI. Don't we need that more visible so that people can understand why data centers aren't actually against their interests? Because at the moment, most people are just mystified. It's these huge amounts of Money, billions of dollars being poured into these data centers. Some of them are benefiting, but most of them don't really see the long term upside from their point of view.
Keith Teare
I think that's where Akamoglu and I would agree that the case for AI as something
Keith Teare
that everybody will benefit from is not being well made. And it's astonishing, actually. You know, when you consider that Sam Altman and Dario Amadai and Demis Hassabis, who's now kind of exited the operational role at Google this week, and not the people making that case, that's kind of astonishing to me. The case is quite simple. And if you could substitute the word workers for the word people, I'd almost entirely agree with Akamoglu. And that's what this week's editorial, by the way, is all about.
Andrew Keen
But then that becomes semantic. I mean, worker and people, I mean, it's the same thing.
Keith Teare
Not really, because he focuses in detail on the wage-labor-capital relationship and wants to preserve it. He really does do that, and that's a mistake.
Andrew Keen
Well, I tell people who rely on their income to pay their rent or feed their kids or clothe themselves, I mean, it's a real issue for people Isn't it?
Keith Teare
Well, I mean, now you're conflating a short-term need with long-term trends. And he's an intellectual. He's not really talking about short-term. He's wanting to make permanent the current social contract.
Andrew Keen
So you're saying, you mentioned... Demis Hassabis, who did run DeepMinds up until earlier this week. There's been a shift away from, big shift within Google. Hassabis has been replaced. And the Financial Times actually ran an interesting piece yesterday about the, and I'm quoting the headline, Google's AI shakeup boosts Brin as DeepMinds Hassabis steps aside. There's a lot of frustration, at least according to the FT within Google, that Hasebis is not focused enough on sales. And I guess Sergey Brin, one of the co-founders of Google, has replaced him as the AI czar within the company. Is this because no one's, are you saying that they're not making the argument? I mean, Hasebis won the Nobel Prize for his work in AI and medicine at DeepMinds. He's highly respected. Why isn't he making the argument? What's he doing wrong or what's he not saying?
Keith Teare
He's not really a villain in this. He's mainly, I think, a good guy from my point of view, but he's very specific. I mean, to give him credit, he is a scientist who gets energy from being a scientist, and that is quite different from being a scientist. You know, the boss of a large organization with people reporting to you where operational outcomes are your focus. And he's decided to step back into science, and that's not a terrible thing. And his main narrative is the power that AI can bring to scientific development, like AlphaFold, although it is You know, concerning that the entire alpha full team at Google has been broken up and no longer exists as a team. So something strange is going on there. But yeah, I think they're too busy in their businesses to articulate a vision. And that, you know, they're too tactical. Week by week, they have to make statements that are highly tactical. So if you're listening, Where do you hear the pro-AI sentiment? I don't think you do. And I think Akamoglu is trying to create that by making the case that it should be pro-worker. And I don't disagree that it should be pro-worker, but it should be pro-everybody.
Andrew Keen
Yeah, it's still not convincing me about... I mean, whether you use pro-everybody or pro-worker, to me, that's a semantic issue. But there's still the reality that a lot of this AI boom isn't for real. You link with an interesting piece by Ed Zitron, another of your favorite authors. Who suggests that, according to analysts, at least 70% of Amazon, Microsoft and Google's AI revenues come from OpenAI and Anthropic. And he goes on to say there really isn't an AI industry without OpenAI and Anthropic. And he argues that this is a huge problem, even if you don't want to think about it. Is Zitron right, Keith? Is this still in some ways an artificial boom where Cloud sales of Microsoft, Google and Amazon are being built on Anthropic and OpenAI who are raising more and more money and they're still private companies. I actually did an interview this week with someone who argues that one of the problems with Wall Street is That you shouldn't be able to have so many unicorns. A law professor at BC has written a book about taming the unicorns. Maybe we'll talk about that next week. Do you disagree with Zitron? Is this still a real economy?
Keith Teare
I actually agree with about two thirds of what he said. If you take word length as the measure, it is definitely true that a lot of the revenue from the What they call the hyperscalers is coming from Anthropic and OpenAI. It's definitely true that there wouldn't be an AI industry without Anthropic and OpenAI.
Keith Teare
It isn't a problem. That's the bit I disagree with him. If you ask the question, which he doesn't, where is the money coming from for OpenAI and Anthropic to pay Microsoft and Amazon and Google? The answer is from about 2 billion people in the world, some subset of which pay subscription fees to those two companies and are seeing dramatic growths in revenue. And so, yes, it is certainly highly concentrated, but from the point of view of usage, it's highly distributive. And the money is coming from a highly distributed number of people. The venture capital money and the debt certainly exists as well. But that would be unsustainable were it not for the revenue. And the revenues are entirely sustainable.
Andrew Keen
Your post of the week is by Porter Stansbury about Leopold Aschenbrenner's huge losses. We mentioned this last week, and I think the news broke of this whiz kid who graduated, I think, from Colombia at 19, had a huge AI fund and lost a lot of money, sold it to a Wall Street shark. What is the reality of this market? Are you not concerned about These kind of losses to some people, Keith, you know this better than I do. It suggests a very, very fragile economy.
Keith Teare
Well, Ashenberger is very specific, so you really do have to not generalize. He lost money on publicly listed stocks. Um, specifically to Korean stocks, Samsung and, um, is it SK Highings?
Andrew Keen
Yeah, I mean, the, the point of the, and it's a good, uh, it's a good post, although it's more like an essay, that suggests that he, he just got it wrong. He, uh, Aschenbrenner bet on chip companies rather than the next layer up, and he actually got it the wrong way around, that he bet against Adobe and those types of companies and bet on the chip companies. And the reality of the market is the reverse.
Keith Teare
Well, yeah, he got it wrong. But getting it wrong in public markets is mostly about timing. And he got the timing wrong. He probably didn't get the thesis that wrong, to be honest. Now, if you then drill down to what happened, Citadel bought his public positions, probably at a discount,
Andrew Keen
Ken Griffin, I mean, not probably, for sure. I mean, he wouldn't have done it otherwise.
Keith Teare
He wouldn't have done it. However,
Keith Teare
Ashenberger kept his Anthropic shares, which are his most valuable asset. And so the guy is still a multi-billionaire. And I think it's fair to say nobody really lost money because when Citadel bought those assets, they went back up in price. And so, you know, the pool of money pretty much stayed the same. It was a drama in a teacup.
Andrew Keen
So from what you're saying, it's a real economy. People want AI. So even though Google and Amazon and Microsoft AI revenue is being built on having anthropic and open AI as clients, it's not that important. So the real The real test, the next big test, Keith, of this economy are the IPOs of Anthropoc and OpenAI. SpaceX's stock fell this week. I think there's some questions about that. Is that fair, do you think? I mean, to get a real, I mean, everyone has different positions on this, and it's always easy to have a position before it happens. But is that going to be the reality check in this economy, the IPOs of Anthropoc and OpenAI?
Keith Teare
Well, I think, though, and having done a couple of IPOs in my career, I'll tell you the reason you do an IPO is because you draw the conclusion that raising new capital is easier in the public market than the private. So to be honest, neither of those companies will go public unless they've reached the point that they think that's where the future capital will come from. And that may have already happened. It's possible, in which case they'll list. Well, then you move to the share price. And the share price is very different. It's a subjective price derived from the supply and demand for the shares. And SpaceX, you know, listed at $135 and is now about $108, I think, last time I looked. So it's not that far off. Certainly no catastrophe there. And they did unlock. I think about 20% of the locked up shares were unlocked yesterday without any dramatic impact. In fact, the share price went up yesterday. So the public markets really aren't a place where you determine success or failure of the underlying business. I think that's more to do with investment, return on investment, revenue, rate of growth. Those are the key numbers. And in those numbers, both Anthropic and OpenAI are doing extremely well.
Andrew Keen
Well, we shall see. Maybe next week we can do the Taming the Unicorns conversation. This week, my interview of the week is with Claire Stapleton, a former Google person who's written a book called Don't Be Evil, Bad Bosses, Fake Promises, and My Escape from Big Tech. We never escape from big tech, do we, Keith? We're on it. We're in the big tech prison every week. We will be back next week. This week, humans create intelligence. Next week, they'll be creating more intelligence. Have a good week, Keith. And I will see you next week.
Keith Teare
Bye, everyone.
Andrew Keen
What Makes The Sky Blue?