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"Please Regulate Me" Oh Wait!
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Andrew Keen
Hello everybody, in this second weekend of June 26th, There's Only One Story Out Here In Silicon Valley Of Course It's The Story Of SpaceX's IPO According To The Wall Street Journal It Proves The Power Of Elon Musk's Superlative Strategies The Journal Describes It As A Goldilocks Debut Very Impressed New York Times Is As The New York Times Is Typically Is Slightly More Ambivalent But Headlines SpaceX's Unlikely Journey From Far Out I Our Weekly Show On Technology Our Summary Also Leads With The SpaceX IPO He Has A Piece About Elon And The Balloon Civilizer Elon And The Balloon And Then He Says Civilization Needs Him He Suggests That
Most Commentators Are Grimacing At The Valuation The Two Trillion Dollar Valuation And The Personal Net Worth Of Elon Musk Keith I'm Not So Sure About That Where's All This Grimacing Where's The Evidence I Mean As I Said The Journal Is Very Impressed Even The Times In Its Own Way Acknowledges Musk's Remarkable Financial Success
I haven't come across that one yet You should just scroll through X or Facebook or LinkedIn and there's a huge pile on that's P-I-L-E, second word on about Elon's becoming a trillionaire and how disgusting it is and the widening gap between the rich and the poor And The Fact That SpaceX Lost Four Billion Dollars Last Year How Could It Be Worth This Much Money It's Everywhere Wall To Wall And Very Dominant Well I Haven't Seen
Well You Troll The You Troll The Bathroom Keith You Go Into The Rubbish Dump You're Always Going To Find People Who Are Upset For One Reason Or If It's Not Elon It's Bezos Or Epstein Or Trump Or Somebody Else So So Okay So Let's Break It Down And Of Course You're Right A Lot Of People Aren't Particularly Happy There Are A Number Of Elements To What You Call This Grimace At The Valuation On The One Hand There's The Fact That People Don't Like Elon We'll Come To That Later I Know You're A Big Fan Should People Like Him Simply Because I Mean He Clearly Is An Absolutely Brilliant Businessman I Mean I Don't Think Anyone Could Argue That I Don't Think It
Well, you admire him. I mean, that's how we approach the world. I mean, we make moral judgments on people and that's how we make sense of the world, isn't it?
I think you judge him and you judge him against a set of criteria. It's not an abstract judgment. It's, you know, your criteria really shapes your judgment. So if your criteria is as narrow as how much he's worth, you're going to have a particular view. And if your criteria is the future of civilization, you might have a different view.
Yeah, I mean, you've used this word before, Keith, civilization, I have to admit, I'm deeply ambivalent, but we'll come to that later. But There's No Doubt That It's A I Mean You're An Expert On IPOs And Venture I Mean It's A Absolutely Brilliant Maneuver How Has He Done This I Mean How Would You What Narrative Would You Give I Mean As The Times Says This Unlikely Journey, and of course that's Musk's journey from far out idea to true trillion-dollar juggernaut. The BBC has some images of what they call his stratospheric rise to trillionaire status. 2020 Was The 35th Richest Person In The World Now Of Course He's The Richest Man By
Quite A Large Margin So Has He Done This Well Let's Ignore Tesla For A Minute And Let's Ignore Neuralink Let's Just Focus On SpaceX SpaceX Is 25 Ish Years Old So So It You Know It It's A Two And A Half Decade Long Effort And It Started With A Warehouse In El Segundo Near LA Which Is An Area Where There's A Lot Of Rocket Scientists Weirdly Who Are Skilled In The Art And He Started Playing With The Idea Of A Reusable Rocket And Little By Little He Failed And He Failed He Actually Bet Almost All Of His Gains From Tesla on SpaceX and almost lost it all. Then, finally, a rocket worked. And since then, it's been iterative. You know, the rockets got better and bigger and more reliable. The reusability was proven. The payloads that he puts into space now make SpaceX a virtual global monopoly on delivering payloads into space, satellites and the like. Scientific Equipment And NASA Now Subcontracts To SpaceX For A Lot Of What NASA Does So It Went From A Warehouse In El Segundo To Be A Global Monopoly In Space And Then On Top Of That He Invented Starlink And Starlink Was Thought To Be Impossible There Were Satellite Internet Services Before Starlink I Experimented With Most Of Them And They Were Very Laggy You Couldn't Do Video Calls On Them For Example Because The Latency Was Too Much And The Bandwidth Between Earth And Space Was Unreliable He Perfected It To The Point Where Starlink Now Can Sustain Gigabit Level connections pretty much everywhere.
Yeah, and even United are installing or supposed to be installing on their plane. So in one sense, this is the classic story. This is a parable of a brilliant entrepreneur who had a crazy idea that no one else shared, and he stuck to it. He literally went for the stars. And He Succeeded. I don't think, I mean, who would argue against that? I take your point, of course, that he isn't many people's most popular person. We'll come to that in a few minutes. But are there business people, startup people, who are suggesting that this doesn't reflect well on masks?
So coming back to your Your Your Editorial There's No Grimacing At That I Mean On The One Hand He Is The Model Of A Brilliantly A Brilliant Brave Obstinate Entrepreneur Who Had A Crazy Idea That Nobody Else Shared And He Stuck To It For Many Years And Then He Became
Successful And He Wasn't The Big Thing Is He Wasn't Afraid To Raise Very Large Amounts Of Money And At Least In An Accounting Sense Lose It Whilst Building A Very Large Sustainable Business That Is Still Today Losing Money Is It So Coming Back So I
Take Your Point And You And I Always Talk This Is One Of Your Credos Is SpaceX What Is Its Business Is It Satellite Subscriptions? I mean, what's the long term of this business? What's the short term, the current, the current nature of the business? And what's the vision?
So SpaceX is is unprofitable. But it has segments that make a profit if you wall them off like like Starlink. Starlink is profitable. Its business is really multi multifold. You know, in a space of about Six Weeks It's Gone From Not Being A Player To Being The Third Largest Data Center Provider To AI By Doing Deals With Both Anthropic And Google For Well Over A Billion Dollars A Month In Lease Fees For The Colossus Data Centers That It Built For Grok It Owns Grok And So It Has A Data Center Business And It's Going To Extend That Into Space Using Solar Power To Power Orbiting Data Centers So As A Data Center Business Secondly It Has A Space A Rocket Building And Leasing Business That Allows Anyone Who Wants To Get Stuff Into Space To Put It Onto A SpaceX Rocket Is Getting To The Point Where It Wants To Be Able To Build Four Rockets A Week And Have Hundreds Of Rockets All Over The Earth To Be Able To Do Up To 200 Flights A Month And He Thinks Of That Payload Business A Little Bit Like The Airplane Business Where You Want You Know If An Airplane Had To Be Rebuilt Every Time It Flew You Couldn't Build A Business
He Wants That For Space So Maybe We'll Get Eventually Through SpaceX We'll Get Uber In Space You Can Catch A Rocket To A Nearby Planet So It's Clearly On That Level It's Remarkably Impressive There's A Real Business There As You Know He Loses Money But That Doesn't Really Matter That Much All These Great Internet Businesses Began Losing Money Whether It's Google Or Amazon So So There's That So Let's Be Clear I Agree With You That Elon Musk Is Remarkable Entrepreneur And I Don't Know How Many People Would Be Grimacing At The Valuation And The Valuation I Mean True True Is True Trillion Dollars Absurd Any More Absurd Than Anthropic Or Open AI's Trillion Or Two Trillion Dollar Valuation When They Do Their IPOs Later This Year
Look, I think all of these valuations, you can look at them in two ways. The first is you can look at current revenue and say, is it worth this much? And that's how most people think. Investors don't think like that.
Yeah, New Year's... You use something from Brad Gerstner who compares the IPO price of companies like NVIDIA, Apple, Google to today's price and obviously dramatic rise, although you could do it the other way. I mean, there are lots of companies that have failed for better or worse.
Yeah, but this is the focus on winners, which we're trying to define the valuation of a winner when it first goes public as either rational or irrational. And if you look at that list from Brad Gerstner, it's clear in retrospect, what seemed at the time like big valuations. For example, you know, I didn't invest in most of these IPOs because I thought they were highly valued. Well, I was stupid because look at what look at the gap between where they started and where they ended up.
Exactly. Exactly. One learns through life. And so the valuation looked at from the point of view of what it will become is is what's meaningful. And The Idea That SpaceX Will Only Be Worth Two Trillion Ten Or Twenty Years From Now is probably wrong. It's probably going to be worth a lot, many, many times. Right.
I think it was like Eric Schmidt's remark when he bought YouTube that either it will be worth nothing or significantly many multiples more than the billion dollars that he paid. And of course it is. Okay. So we're agreeing on that. I don't think there's any debate. Remarkable entrepreneur, remarkable achievement. So there's... When It Comes To The Implications Leaving Elon Aside For The Moment The New York Times Has A Piece About Wages Falling Wealth Surging No Wonder Americans Are Unhappy And They Point Out And This Is Also Part Of This Week's News That The Bureau Of Labor Statistics Reported This Week That The Surge In Energy Prices Had Wiped Out A Year And A Half Of Wage Gains For The Average American Worker So On The One Hand You Have The End Of Wage Gains For Average American Workers And On The Other Hand You Have Elon Being Worth A Trillion Dollars Is That One Of The Areas Keith Where People Are Grimacing And Don't They Have A Right To Grimace At These Very Very Divergent Numbers Look I I
I think the New York Times article is a bit of a red herring. It really relates to the Middle East conflict and the price of energy, and it's probably very temporary. I think there's a bigger framing that you could put that discussion in, which is the impact of AI on jobs, which interestingly enough, recent evidence suggests that those who say AI will create jobs, at least for now, look right. Jobs Are Growing Not Shrinking But There Is A Transformation And Transformation Leads To Unease And If Unease Takes The Form Of Less Money In Your Pocket Which It Often Does For Most People According To The Times Then You They Call It A Stark
I don't think they probably did, but they can think of that themselves. But isn't this stark, Keith? I mean, it's a reality, whether or not it in some ways maybe reflects the Middle Eastern crisis, maybe some of Trump's mismanagement.
Yeah, but it's not surprising, is it? I mean, whenever there is a spurt in wealth, you could think of it as the growth in GDP, the growth of value in the economy through Whatever Reason It Does Exacerbate The Gap Between Those Who Have The Wealth And Those Who Don't So The Wealth Gap Isn't Recent It's It's Endemic It's When When Was The Time When There Was No Wealth Gap There Is No Such Time And It Gets Wider As
I'm not sure if you've read the um you read the times piece but the times acknowledges that and i'm quoting them inequality is hardly a new feature in america you're absolutely right but then they say the explosion of wealth at the very top is without precedent in u.s history true the height hold on at the height of the gilded age at the end of the 19th century the richest handful of americans had a net worth equivalent of about three percent the country's annual economic output and now uh the fortunes of that same 20 individuals make up roughly four times a larger share. So it is four times more than the Gilded Age, which also shocked people. So that's a reality. You can't just dismiss it.
It's Always Wrong To Look Back A Very Long Time And Then Compare The Ratios To The Present As If There's A Value Judgment Implied By The Change There's No Value Judgment The Change Is Just Math The Wealth Of The Societies Has Grown Massively And You Know The The Life Of The Average Person Has Risen Massively You Wouldn't Have Want To Be A Poor Person In The Gilded Age Compared To Today Yeah But Historians Would Remind
You That The Gilded Age Ended With The First World War And Then The Great Depression And Then The New Deal So The Journey From The Gilded Age To More More Economic Equality Was A Rocky Violent Problematic One So It's Not Inevitable Or
Straightforward Yeah That's A Bit Of A Side Conversation But Why Is That A Side Conversation That's What Happened In History Well Because You're Not Wrong But The 20th Century Was A Century In Which A Leading Empire The UK Was Eclipsed By Others And In Order To Be Replaced It Required Two World Wars The 20th Century Was The Century Of Britain's Decline It May Look Like The Century Of Fascism The Rise Of America But Actually The Narrative At The Core Of It Is Britain's Decline In Replacement By The US That Took Two World Wars
Well, some people might say, I don't know whether that's true or not, but some people might say that the story of the 21st century is a replacement of China. Well, the replacement of the United States by China, if that's how you look at history.
Before we get to the 21st century, just one last point on the 20th century. It was also the century of the greatest economic boom, called the post-war boom, which speaks about 1950s and 60s and early 70s, ever.
And So That Postwar Boom Led To You Know All The Things That You Can Look Back At The Invention Of Home Based Washing Machines And Dryers Ironing You Know All The Things That Bring Technology Into The Home And Make Domestic Life Easier Women Entering The Workforce Votes For Women The Progress Of The 20th Century That Went Alongside Those Terrible Things Is Self-Evident And So Today AI Not Only AI But AI And Many Other Technologies Represent The Modern Form Of The Same Thing The Pi Is Going To Grow Just As It Did In The 20th Century And The Pi Is Going To Grow Very Fast Very Big The Average Life Of The Average Person Is Going To Get Better And Better And Better And Better As It Did In The 20th Century Despite The Two World Wars And Musk Isn't You Know A Problem Musk Is A Symptom Of That Success Musk Is A Symptom In What In His Wealth
And The Fact That He's Worth A Trillion Dollars I Mean My View On Musk Is If Someone Is Going To Be The First Trillionaire I Don't Think Musk Is A Particularly Good Pin-Up For I Mean He's On The One Hand He's Clearly A Brilliant Entrepreneur On The Other Hand As You Say Even You Don't Particularly Like Him His Politics Are Very Trouble I Mean On The One Hand Where He's Reaching For The Stars The Other News This Week Is That There Were Riots In Northern Ireland After A White With White Supremacists And Musk And His Old Friend Tommy Robinson And A Far Right Activist In The UK Orchestrating Riot. So there's something weird. NBC talks about Elon Musk for this week. So on the one hand, he makes a trillion dollars from this brilliant IPO. On the other hand, he's under fire for stoking anti-immigrant riots in Belfast. One of the things that strikes me is this weird New York Times talks about... Radical Juxtapositions Or Stark Juxtaposition That Seems To Be The Most The Starkest Juxtaposition Of Musk On The One Hand He'S Reaching For The Stars On The Other Hand He'S Stoking Up Racial Animosity In Belfast No I Actually Think That
Musk Is More Of A Man Of A People In This Context Than You Are Musk Doesn'T Sweep Under The Carpet That A Sikh Tried To Behead A Local Irish Person And Almost Killed Him Failed Luckily I Don't Know If It Was A Sikh Was It Was A
Anyway Whether Or Not It Was A Sikh There Was An Ethnic Attack By An Immigrant That Led To Locals Objecting To The introduction into Belfast of cultural norms that are not normal in Belfast and normal people, not racists. To call them racists is disgusting. Normal people who just don't like being attacked protested that there was no policing of what were asylum-seeking immigrants Doing Things On The Streets That Are Not Normal And You Know That Civilization For The Attacking Civilization It Absolutely Is The Attack On Civilization Is Coming From People Who Want To Kill Jews In North London For Example That Is Not Wrong Musk Isn't Wrong Musk Is Taking The Side Of The Common Person
again nbc musk has recently voiced support for restore britain a breakaway political party from farage's reform uk which is pretty radical in its own sense which which Felt Its Immigration Policies Were Not Extreme Enough Musk Also Regularly Shares Messages With Tommy Robinson We've Talked About Him Before A Far Right Activist And Convicted Fraudster Served Five Jail Terms Very Violent Figure So Are You Suggesting Then Hold On Are You Suggesting That There's No Contradiction Between Musk The Brilliant Businessman And Musk The Supporter Of Tommy Robinson That
They're All Actually I Think Here's How I Think They're Aligned Most The Businessman Is A Logical Wants To Get Things Right Science Based Person Musk The Social Commentator Believes The Enlightenment And The Gains Of Western Culture Need To Be Protected And Sees Especially Islamicists As Medieval And A Throwback To Prior
Well, I talked about one seek. Musk doesn't talk about it. Yeah, again, I mean, I'm not sure. Musk's belief system on immigration in Europe is becoming mainstream in Europe. I think the left are blind to the impact of anti-Western views on the streets of Western cities.
You Put Your Political Cards On The Table Keith I Wonder Whether There Was An Interesting Piece Of News Also From Switzerland This Week That Switzerland Is Voting On Planning To Cap Its Population At 10 Million These Are Clearly Big Issues In Europe And Indeed In The US So On The One Hand We've Got These Two Again Speaking Of New York Times Is Juxtapositions Stark Juxtapositions The Stark Juxtaposition Leaving Musk Out Of It For The Minute In The World Is On The One Hand We Have His SpaceX Reaching For The Stars Uber In The Sky Rockets Being Like Cars On The Other Hand More And More Scarcity On Land I Mean That's What The Riots Are About In Northern Ireland In Southern England About Who Can And Can't Come Into This Country Same In The US So Is That I mean, you're a big abundance guy. We've talked about land before, but I don't see any way of any tech that's going to enable Switzerland to, I don't know, make its population 100 million or 15 million. So there's more and more scarcity when it comes to land and population and more and more abundance in other areas, maybe in space.
Yeah, it's interesting. I mean, look, have you ever gone on a train from Geneva to Zurich? If You Have If You Haven't I'll Tell You There's Almost Only Open Space It Isn't Like There's Cities Everywhere In Switzerland And There's No Room A lot Of Mountains But That's Another Issue There Are Mountains And There's Certainly Places Where Not Inhabitable But There Isn't A Lack Of Space It Is A Small Country Like Say Wales Geographically Small I You Know I Personally Don't Think There's A Genuine Desire To Stop People Moving Around The World I Think There Is A Absolute Hatred Of A Refusal To Integrate Into The Cultures That People Come Into I Think People Want Immigrants But I Think They Want Them To Become British Or American Or German Not To You Know Not To Attack Locals For Being Infidels Or Whatever I Don't Think They Want To Import Into Their Countries The Jihad But They Do Want Immigrants And They're Not Against People Of Different Color Skin I Think Actually Europe Is One Of The Least Racist Places In The World As Is America I Don't Think Americans Are Against Mexicans They Are Against Illegal Immigrants And There Is A Quite A Big Distinction Between Being A Racist Wanting To Control
The Entry Point Into Your Country That'S Kind Of Okay I Wish That So You You'Re Comfortable With This On The One You'Re Not Bothered With The Fact That Musk Is Very Friendly And Very Supportive Of This Thuggish Right Wing Character Tommy
I consider him to be a populist that agrees with and has become a focal point for ordinary working class people in the UK who are sick of being treated as second class citizens. In the face of two decades of, you know, favoring minorities, they feel like they're the minority now. That isn't wrong.
Well, as I said, you put your political cards on the table. Coming to Europe, you have a couple of interesting pieces, one from Frank Fukuyama, an old friend of Keen on America. He has a liberal vision of Europe. You're in some way sympathetic with what Fukuyama is saying, this liberal vision of Europe, and in some ways you don't think He Really Understands The Challenge Of Europe You Also Have A Piece On Europe 2031 About From A Group Of European Economists Technologists About What Getting AI Wrong Means For Us So What's Your Interpretation Both Of The Fukuyama Piece and Europe 2031. You've said that there are too many migrants in Europe and they're not willing to become white working class Englishmen like yourself.
Fukuyama is trying to be optimistic. About Europe's Future. The Europe 2031 piece, which is very well researched, is doing the opposite. It's warning about the bad outcome unless Europe wakes up to the opportunity that AI gives it. So in a way they're contrasting pieces. Fukuyama is hopeful and kind of ignores some of the structural reasons why Europe can't become liberal, a modern liberal democracy. The main one being the Top Heavy Bureaucratism Around The EU Which Creates Regulatory Regimes That Override Countries And You End Up With Dislike Of The EU Pretty Much In Every Country In Europe Even In France Which Was The Architect Of European Union So I Think Fukuyama Is Really Is In The Middle Of but not really solving for how do you get a modern liberal Europe?
Very similar to the US, by the way. I mean, the rise of populism as a reaction to the previous 20 years puts the US in a position where it's very hard to think of a liberal US. So I don't think they're actually all that different. I think populism is the price you pay for bad policy earlier.
Again In The Context Of The Musk SpaceX IPO Clearly A Remarkable Achievement Company Innovation Meanwhile Government Continues Both In Europe And The United States To Be In One Kind Of Crisis Or Another You Talked About Fukuyama's Concern With The Failure Of Liberalism In Europe There's An Interesting Piece In The Washington Post That You Linked To By Fareed Zakaria That CNN Personality About How California Became A Case Study And Failed Government Which Is Particularly Striking Since You And I Are Talking Here Of Course It's The Heart Of Silicon Silicon Valley Is Part Of Part Of California I Had Jonathan Weber On The Show This Week He Has A New Book Out About San Francisco City On The Edge Technology Politics And The Fight For The Soul Of San Francisco And Weber Also Talks About The Dysfunctionality Historic Dysfunctionality Of City Government So It's State Government City Government Zachariah And Weber Are Talking About Again It's Coming Back To Our Old Friend At The New York Times Is Stark Juxtaposition On The One Hand Remarkable Innovation When It Comes To Technology And Business In California Although Of Course SpaceX Isn't A Californian Business And Then The Failure Of Government To Keep Up Or Even Compete In Any Way And Something Weird Is Going On Isn't It Keith?
Yeah Look I Think Government In The US Is Pretty Separated From The People I Think The Primary The Concept Of A Primary And A Party Political Path To Being Elected Means That You Have A Kind Of A Professional Political Lair Very Thin But Very Powerful That Ends Up Electing Their Chosen People And This Is In Both Parties And So The US Is Only A Democracy In A Literal Sense But In A Real People Controlling Their Representative Sense It Really Isn't And That Leads To Corruption And Separation And Also, you know, a kind of a lack of accountability on getting anything done. And it's only when citizens rise up, like, say, Gary Tan organized an Asian American reaction against the education system in San Francisco and was listened to because the people actually spoke and became powerful. They tried to end math, for example, in schools, and they fought against that. Oh, that's the end of civilization, isn't it?
Certainly Wouldn't Be Good To End Math Although I Think AI Does Math Now So That's How You End Your That's How You End Your Editorial This Week You Say Planning Beats Complaint So You Also Talk About An Interesting Editorial By John O'Farrell Former General Partner At Andreessen Horowitz He Resigned In Protest In Some Ways From That Big VC Firm He Has An Op-Ed In The New York Times We Can't Let My Former Venture Capital Colleagues Buy Off Democracy So He's Against This Overinvestment Shall We Say By Wealthy Venture Capitalists Or Mask In Politics What Are We Supposed To Do Keith Where's The Answer So That Piece
But in the American system, you almost have no choice. Now, it's kind of interesting. Bernie Sanders this week doubled down on his idea of a sovereign wealth fund that would own 50% of the equity in all of the high growth AI companies. And honestly, I think it's the first time he has had an insight. And I said last week, 50% is not enough. But It's The Right Direction He Has An Insight Which Could Literally Give Every Citizen Ownership In A Sovereign Wealth Fund I Mean Literally Ownership Shares And The Sovereign Wealth Fund Could You Know Be The Main Beneficiary Of Economic Growth Fueled By AI And Everyone Could Be Uplifted Through It And And That Probably Is A Bottoms Up Distributed Politics Driven By Economics that leads to real participation.
Yeah, I agree. I mean, rather than complaining about Musk and all the inequality, I think you're right. And then let's give credit to Bernie Sanders. He's not just complaining. He's actually thinking about reform. Elizabeth Warren as well. Many people on the left. I think that Perhaps What The Group That's Missing A Centrist Democrats Actually David Sachs On
The All In Podcast Agreed With Bernie And Said It Should Be 75% And Sachs Is Considered Right Wing So I Actually Think These Right Left Labels Don't Help Us Understand Things It's Really About The Path That Money Created Through Capitalism Finds Its Way To Rise Up Everybody And If David Sachs And Bernie Sanders Can Agree Then Everyone Can Agree Well That
Is Going To Be Good For Civilization If Bernie Sanders And David Sachs Can Agree On Anything Keith Are You Still Hopeful About Civilization Or Is It Going To Get Swept Away By All Those Angry Muslims On The Streets Of England
I'm Not Against Muslims Andrew I'm Against Islamists And Islamism Is A Specific It's Like Extreme Right Wing White Supremacists Within The Christian Sphere I'm Against Them As Well But I'm Not Against Christianity So Just Let's Be Clear What
I'm Exactly Saying Well That Is Clear That Was An Interesting Week Interesting Week Week Of Elon Musk becoming a trillionaire. We will, I'm sure, come back to this subject. I'm away next week, so we'll probably re-congregate in a couple of weeks. Have a good couple of weeks, Keith.