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Happy New Year: 2025 Reflections
Dec 31, 2024 ยท 2025 #1. Read the transcript grouped by speaker, inspect word-level timecodes, and optionally turn subtitles on for direct video playback
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Happy New Year: 2025 Reflections
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Andrew Keen
Hello, everybody. Yesterday, I reviewed 2024 with Keith Tear, the author of the That Was The Week newsletter. He made Claude the Anthropic AI Person of the Year. He's cheating a little bit. Today, we're going to look forward, perhaps with the help of AI, perhaps without, to imagine what kind of year 2025 is going to be like. We're going to look into our crystal ball with keith tear the publisher of that was the week keith um i know you're slightly skeptical of forecasting is that because you're always wrong it's because i know i don't know what would happen if you asked your friend claude about 2025 what do you think he would say Should we ask? Yeah, we should ask. Ask Claude what 2025 is going to be like.
Words and timings
Hello,everybody.Yesterday,Ireviewed2024withKeithTear,theauthoroftheThatWasTheWeeknewsletter.HemadeClaudetheAnthropicAIPersonoftheYear.He'scheatingalittlebit.Today,we'regoingtolookforward,perhapswiththehelpofAI,perhapswithout,toimaginewhatkindofyear2025isgoingtobelike.We'regoingtolookintoourcrystalballwithkeithtearthepublisherofthatwastheweekkeithumiknowyou'reslightlyskepticalofforecastingisthatbecauseyou'realwayswrongit'sbecauseiknowidon'tknowwhatwouldhappenifyouaskedyourfriendclaudeabout2025whatdoyouthinkhewouldsayShouldweask?Yeah,weshouldask.AskClaudewhat2025isgoingtobelike.
Keith Teare
I will, but let me just find Claude because he's hidden on my computer somewhere. Here we go. I think Claude's going to make up stuff. That would be my expectation. Well,
Words and timings
Iwill,butletmejustfindClaudebecausehe'shiddenonmycomputersomewhere.Herewego.IthinkClaude'sgoingtomakeupstuff.Thatwouldbemyexpectation.Well,
Andrew Keen
I think by definition, if we're talking about the future, you have to make up stuff, don't you?
Words and timings
Ithinkbydefinition,ifwe'retalkingaboutthefuture,youhavetomakeupstuff,don'tyou?
Keith Teare
I think you have to. Here we go. So now I've got Claude. But let's not limit it. What are... Your top 10 predictions for 2025 in the world.
Words and timings
Ithinkyouhaveto.Herewego.SonowI'vegotClaude.Butlet'snotlimitit.Whatare...Yourtop10predictionsfor2025intheworld.
Andrew Keen
You told me I had to do all the work, Keith, for this interview, but of course you're the one doing the work, or at least Claude's doing the work.
Words and timings
YoutoldmeIhadtodoallthework,Keith,forthisinterview,butofcourseyou'retheonedoingthework,oratleastClaude'sdoingthework.
Keith Teare
So here's what it says. It said its history is cut off in April 2024, so discussing 2025 is bound to have lots of uncertainty, it warns us. Then it says, artificial intelligence is likely to continue rapidly, particularly in multimodal AI that can work with text images, code and video. Two, clean energy adoption will accelerate with automakers having to meet various electric vehicle targets. Space exploration is going to reach new milestones. NASA's Artemis program, returning humans to the moon being one of those. Quantum computing development is going to continue.
Words and timings
Sohere'swhatitsays.ItsaiditshistoryiscutoffinApril2024,sodiscussing2025isboundtohavelotsofuncertainty,itwarnsus.Thenitsays,artificialintelligenceislikelytocontinuerapidly,particularlyinmultimodalAIthatcanworkwithtextimages,codeandvideo.Two,cleanenergyadoptionwillacceleratewithautomakershavingtomeetvariouselectricvehicletargets.Spaceexplorationisgoingtoreachnewmilestones.NASA'sArtemisprogram,returninghumanstothemoonbeingoneofthose.Quantumcomputingdevelopmentisgoingtocontinue.
Andrew Keen
You don't have to be an AI to know these things. Let's start with AI then. What's your sense? We've been looking at some of the predictions for 2025. Casey Newton has some interesting ones. Alex Kantrowitz as well. Are they going to be winners and losers in AI? Some people even think that some of the big players might take a step back from AI and acknowledge that it's not their thing. I mean, especially this supposed battle between OpenAI and Altman and Musk. Are those going to be for real in 2020?
Words and timings
Youdon'thavetobeanAItoknowthesethings.Let'sstartwithAIthen.What'syoursense?We'vebeenlookingatsomeofthepredictionsfor2025.CaseyNewtonhassomeinterestingones.AlexKantrowitzaswell.AretheygoingtobewinnersandlosersinAI?SomepeopleeventhinkthatsomeofthebigplayersmighttakeastepbackfromAIandacknowledgethatit'snottheirthing.Imean,especiallythissupposedbattlebetweenOpenAIandAltmanandMusk.Arethosegoingtobeforrealin2020?
Keith Teare
I think the foundation model competition has to continue because... The value of owning the foundation layer is probably measured in trillions of dollars. It would be very hard for Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Salesforce, not to be going after that future wealth. But I think they're all in a losing battle to Anthropic, OpenAI. I do think Google's done better than I thought. Gemini is very good and is increasingly... able to carry out tasks as well as answer questions. Google's probably the surprise for me in terms of how good it is, and it probably keep being good in 2020. I don't think anyone gets out of the race. I mean, who could get out of the race? Maybe IBM with its Watson, which isn't real.
Words and timings
Ithinkthefoundationmodelcompetitionhastocontinuebecause...Thevalueofowningthefoundationlayerisprobablymeasuredintrillionsofdollars.ItwouldbeveryhardforGoogle,Amazon,Microsoft,Salesforce,nottobegoingafterthatfuturewealth.ButIthinkthey'reallinalosingbattletoAnthropic,OpenAI.IdothinkGoogle'sdonebetterthanIthought.Geminiisverygoodandisincreasingly...abletocarryouttasksaswellasanswerquestions.Google'sprobablythesurpriseformeintermsofhowgooditis,anditprobablykeepbeinggoodin2020.Idon'tthinkanyonegetsoutoftherace.Imean,whocouldgetoutoftherace?MaybeIBMwithitsWatson,whichisn'treal.
Andrew Keen
Maybe they're not in the race. Kantrowitz suggests that Mustafa Suleiman will leave Microsoft. He was, of course, one of the co-founders of DeepMind. Then he got pushed out of Google. How important are these individuals like Solomon or Altman or Musk in the battle for AI supremacy? Do they really matter?
Words and timings
Maybethey'renotintherace.KantrowitzsuggeststhatMustafaSuleimanwillleaveMicrosoft.Hewas,ofcourse,oneoftheco-foundersofDeepMind.ThenhegotpushedoutofGoogle.HowimportantaretheseindividualslikeSolomonorAltmanorMuskinthebattleforAIsupremacy?Dotheyreallymatter?
Keith Teare
I think they matter on the margin in terms of breakthroughs. I've been struck the last 12 days, OpenAI has been releasing a new thing every day. The teams working on those things have been appearing on YouTube video. I was struck by how young they all are. I imagine in early to mid thirties that the bench on AI is now very deep. There's lots of good people. But I don't think there's a lot of good people who will make breakthroughs that require out-of-the-box thinking. I think there's a small number of those. I don't know if Mustafa is one of them. Intuitively, I don't feel like he is, but he may well be.
Words and timings
Ithinktheymatteronthemarginintermsofbreakthroughs.I'vebeenstruckthelast12days,OpenAIhasbeenreleasinganewthingeveryday.TheteamsworkingonthosethingshavebeenappearingonYouTubevideo.Iwasstruckbyhowyoungtheyallare.IimagineinearlytomidthirtiesthatthebenchonAIisnowverydeep.There'slotsofgoodpeople.ButIdon'tthinkthere'salotofgoodpeoplewhowillmakebreakthroughsthatrequireout-of-the-boxthinking.Ithinkthere'sasmallnumberofthose.Idon'tknowifMustafaisoneofthem.Intuitively,Idon'tfeellikeheis,buthemaywellbe.
Andrew Keen
Yeah, Microsoft seem, of all the companies, to be in the diciest position because it's still not entirely even clear what their strategy is.
Words and timings
Yeah,Microsoftseem,ofallthecompanies,tobeinthediciestpositionbecauseit'sstillnotentirelyevenclearwhattheirstrategyis.
Keith Teare
Well, you know, their CEO was interviewed this week, along with Benioff was interviewed in another thing. And they both talked about the same thing, which is AI agents replacing SaaS, software as a service. Now, that is a very big claim. Both companies, by the way, SaaS have huge SaaS businesses. So they're really talking about eating themselves. are eating their own children. And so you do kind of think that 2025 is going to be the year that proves whether relatively recent infrastructure, SaaS and the cloud, is replaced by AI agents doing what previously required databases and what Satya Nadella called CRUD. That's an interface for a database where you can create or delete or update a task, a record in a database. And they're basically saying, look, that old human being sitting at a screen with a database, updating and editing, that's going away because agents are going to do all that.
Words and timings
Well,youknow,theirCEOwasinterviewedthisweek,alongwithBenioffwasinterviewedinanotherthing.Andtheybothtalkedaboutthesamething,whichisAIagentsreplacingSaaS,softwareasaservice.Now,thatisaverybigclaim.Bothcompanies,bytheway,SaaShavehugeSaaSbusinesses.Sothey'rereallytalkingabouteatingthemselves.areeatingtheirownchildren.Andsoyoudokindofthinkthat2025isgoingtobetheyearthatproveswhetherrelativelyrecentinfrastructure,SaaSandthecloud,isreplacedbyAIagentsdoingwhatpreviouslyrequireddatabasesandwhatSatyaNadellacalledCRUD.That'saninterfaceforadatabasewhereyoucancreateordeleteorupdateatask,arecordinadatabase.Andthey'rebasicallysaying,look,thatoldhumanbeingsittingatascreenwithadatabase,updatingandediting,that'sgoingawaybecauseagentsaregoingtodoallthat.
Andrew Keen
Although we're not seeing, and you and I talked about this before, whether could 2025 be the year of agents where we all get our own personal assistant and it's easy to use. You may be able to architect an assistant, but most of us can't.
Words and timings
Althoughwe'renotseeing,andyouandItalkedaboutthisbefore,whethercould2025betheyearofagentswhereweallgetourownpersonalassistantandit'seasytouse.Youmaybeabletoarchitectanassistant,butmostofuscan't.
Keith Teare
I'd like to think that's true. I mean, I already can imagine. having hundreds of agents just for me, for every little...
Words and timings
I'dliketothinkthat'strue.Imean,Ialreadycanimagine.havinghundredsofagentsjustforme,foreverylittle...
Andrew Keen
You may be able to deal with hundreds of agents, but most of us just want one agent.
Words and timings
Youmaybeabletodealwithhundredsofagents,butmostofusjustwantoneagent.
Keith Teare
Because they're going to be specialists. There won't be such a thing as one agent. I can guarantee that. If there are agents at all, there'll be many of them. You can have a cooking agent, a shopping agent, a travel agent, a coding agent for... task a and a different coding agent for task b that knows a different language a teaching agent an insurance agent you you name it your car's going to become an agent the tesla can now be summoned and dry all that's not going to happen in 2025 is it there's going to be a lot of progress towards it in 25 because it's it's it's
Words and timings
Becausethey'regoingtobespecialists.Therewon'tbesuchathingasoneagent.Icanguaranteethat.Ifthereareagentsatall,there'llbemanyofthem.Youcanhaveacookingagent,ashoppingagent,atravelagent,acodingagentfor...taskaandadifferentcodingagentfortaskbthatknowsadifferentlanguageateachingagentaninsuranceagentyouyounameityourcar'sgoingtobecomeanagenttheteslacannowbesummonedanddryallthat'snotgoingtohappenin2025isitthere'sgoingtobealotofprogresstowardsitin25becauseit'sit'sit's
Andrew Keen
happening very rapidly now yeah and i i as we discussed yesterday i'm slightly more skeptical a year is a is a short timeframe in the history of technology, isn't it? Or am I wrong?
Words and timings
happeningveryrapidlynowyeahandiiaswediscussedyesterdayi'mslightlymoreskepticalayearisaisashorttimeframeinthehistoryoftechnology,isn'tit?OramIwrong?
Keith Teare
You would have thought it was short, but 2024 is, things are night and day different than they were at the end of 23. So a lot happens in a year. It feels short, but at the same time, your life's completely transformed. Like remote work with AI and agents, has completely changed my day than what it was. I mean, so things do change pretty fast.
Words and timings
Youwouldhavethoughtitwasshort,but2024is,thingsarenightanddaydifferentthantheywereattheendof23.Soalothappensinayear.Itfeelsshort,butatthesametime,yourlife'scompletelytransformed.LikeremoteworkwithAIandagents,hascompletelychangedmydaythanwhatitwas.Imean,sothingsdochangeprettyfast.
Andrew Keen
What about company? I know you're very excited with the announcement, um, in 2024 of OpenAI's new O3 models. I wonder, there's been a lot of press on the restructuring of OpenAI from non-profit to for-profit. Altman seems to be doing that and at the same time managing a tech company. You've been very, very bullish over the year, over the last couple of years on OpenAI. Is it possible that... that the politics of running OpenAI and this re-architecting of a non-profit into a for-profit will actually make OpenAI fall behind its competitors, Anthropic, Google, maybe even Microsoft?
Words and timings
Whataboutcompany?Iknowyou'reveryexcitedwiththeannouncement,um,in2024ofOpenAI'snewO3models.Iwonder,there'sbeenalotofpressontherestructuringofOpenAIfromnon-profittofor-profit.Altmanseemstobedoingthatandatthesametimemanagingatechcompany.You'vebeenvery,verybullishovertheyear,overthelastcoupleofyearsonOpenAI.Isitpossiblethat...thatthepoliticsofrunningOpenAIandthisre-architectingofanon-profitintoafor-profitwillactuallymakeOpenAIfallbehinditscompetitors,Anthropic,Google,maybeevenMicrosoft?
Keith Teare
It doesn't seem as if that's happening. The announcement made over the last couple of days implied that OpenAI is still very far ahead of its rivals technically. and in thinking through the application of AI. It's funny because in the context you've just put it, the for-profit replacing the not-for-profit, Elon Musk plays the role of the good guy because he's got a legal case trying to stop that from happening.
Words and timings
Itdoesn'tseemasifthat'shappening.TheannouncementmadeoverthelastcoupleofdaysimpliedthatOpenAIisstillveryfaraheadofitsrivalstechnically.andinthinkingthroughtheapplicationofAI.It'sfunnybecauseinthecontextyou'vejustputit,thefor-profitreplacingthenot-for-profit,ElonMuskplaystheroleofthegoodguybecausehe'sgotalegalcasetryingtostopthatfromhappening.
Andrew Keen
Everybody knows that Musk is not the good guy and his only interest in here is pursuing his own interest of ex-AI. Which is a for-profit company, so he's not committed to the non-profit model either.
Words and timings
EverybodyknowsthatMuskisnotthegoodguyandhisonlyinterestinhereispursuinghisowninterestofex-AI.Whichisafor-profitcompany,sohe'snotcommittedtothenon-profitmodeleither.
Keith Teare
You know, yes, but there's important nuance there. Musk was the only investor in OpenAI initially. He put up literally all the money for it. And he was the leader of it. And then he got scared. He went on the record saying AI could be dangerous. and needs guardrails. And he really strongly believed that OpenAI should be not-for-profit with guardrails. I think he genuinely feels cheated that Altman is turning it into a for-profit, having used Musk's money and brains and recruiting skills. Well, that's one narrative. I'm not sure everyone would necessarily agree with that. No, I think it's fair. Why do you believe to be true? Now, has Musk's... That doesn't mean you're wrong, by the way, Andrew. Musk's motives today, there's a whole set of new variables built around Grok, which he just raised $6 billion for. He's self-interested in more than one way. But I do think his grievances are probably quite emotional and quite real and probably merited.
Words and timings
Youknow,yes,butthere'simportantnuancethere.MuskwastheonlyinvestorinOpenAIinitially.Heputupliterallyallthemoneyforit.Andhewastheleaderofit.Andthenhegotscared.HewentontherecordsayingAIcouldbedangerous.andneedsguardrails.AndhereallystronglybelievedthatOpenAIshouldbenot-for-profitwithguardrails.IthinkhegenuinelyfeelscheatedthatAltmanisturningitintoafor-profit,havingusedMusk'smoneyandbrainsandrecruitingskills.Well,that'sonenarrative.I'mnotsureeveryonewouldnecessarilyagreewiththat.No,Ithinkit'sfair.Whydoyoubelievetobetrue?Now,hasMusk's...Thatdoesn'tmeanyou'rewrong,bytheway,Andrew.Musk'smotivestoday,there'sawholesetofnewvariablesbuiltaroundGrok,whichhejustraised$6billionfor.He'sself-interestedinmorethanoneway.ButIdothinkhisgrievancesareprobablyquiteemotionalandquiterealandprobablymerited.
Andrew Keen
There's no doubt politics can be really important in 2025 in terms of tech. You mentioned Musk. He's more and more in the news. I mean, his failure, if that's the right word with open AI, was a political failure. He didn't know how to manage maybe the board or Altman or his fellow investors. What kind of year do you expect Musk to have in 2025? A lot of people believe that he will fall out of favor with Trump or that Trump will fall out of favor with Musk and he'll just go off and do his own thing. Do you expect this meteoric political rise of Musk. I mean, a year ago, nobody was even talking about Musk as a political player. Where do you expect us to be in late December 2025 with Elon Musk and his involvement in politics?
Words and timings
There'snodoubtpoliticscanbereallyimportantin2025intermsoftech.YoumentionedMusk.He'smoreandmoreinthenews.Imean,hisfailure,ifthat'stherightwordwithopenAI,wasapoliticalfailure.Hedidn'tknowhowtomanagemaybetheboardorAltmanorhisfellowinvestors.WhatkindofyeardoyouexpectMusktohavein2025?AlotofpeoplebelievethathewillfalloutoffavorwithTrumporthatTrumpwillfalloutoffavorwithMuskandhe'lljustgooffanddohisownthing.DoyouexpectthismeteoricpoliticalriseofMusk.Imean,ayearago,nobodywaseventalkingaboutMuskasapoliticalplayer.WheredoyouexpectustobeinlateDecember2025withElonMuskandhisinvolvementinpolitics?
Keith Teare
Well, look, he's becoming a hero of his people. His people now is the Donald Trump tribe.
Words and timings
Well,look,he'sbecomingaheroofhispeople.HispeoplenowistheDonaldTrumptribe.
Andrew Keen
and the Silicon Valley tribe. I mean, as you know, Silicon Valley is very much divided on masks. Those that love him and those that hate him. And I think some who simultaneously love and hate him.
Words and timings
andtheSiliconValleytribe.Imean,asyouknow,SiliconValleyisverymuchdividedonmasks.Thosethatlovehimandthosethathatehim.AndIthinksomewhosimultaneouslyloveandhatehim.
Keith Teare
Yeah, I think that's the norm, actually, those two. It's very hard to predict the year he'll have. I think if you break it down, SpaceX is going to have a great year. Tesla's introducing at least one new model early in the new year that's at the cheaper end of the spectrum. And the Model Y is going to be refreshed. it's already the world's best-selling car, which is astounding that that's true, but it is. I think that Neuralink will have a good year. I think Starlink will have a good year. So what might not have a good year is Musk in DC. As we saw yesterday or the day before with... the vote on the budget. Republicans are already breaking away from Trump and voting against what Musk wanted to happen. And he's becoming a controversial character and he's facing, you know, he's facing the Borg. The Borg lives in DC and his job is to incorporate everything that comes there. So how does he avoid being incorporated? I don't think he has the disposition to be incorporated. So he's probably going to get angry.
Words and timings
Yeah,Ithinkthat'sthenorm,actually,thosetwo.It'sveryhardtopredicttheyearhe'llhave.Ithinkifyoubreakitdown,SpaceXisgoingtohaveagreatyear.Tesla'sintroducingatleastonenewmodelearlyinthenewyearthat'satthecheaperendofthespectrum.AndtheModelYisgoingtoberefreshed.it'salreadytheworld'sbest-sellingcar,whichisastoundingthatthat'strue,butitis.IthinkthatNeuralinkwillhaveagoodyear.IthinkStarlinkwillhaveagoodyear.SowhatmightnothaveagoodyearisMuskinDC.Aswesawyesterdayorthedaybeforewith...thevoteonthebudget.RepublicansarealreadybreakingawayfromTrumpandvotingagainstwhatMuskwantedtohappen.Andhe'sbecomingacontroversialcharacterandhe'sfacing,youknow,he'sfacingtheBorg.TheBorglivesinDCandhisjobistoincorporateeverythingthatcomesthere.Sohowdoesheavoidbeingincorporated?Idon'tthinkhehasthedispositiontobeincorporated.Sohe'sprobablygoingtogetangry.
Andrew Keen
and frustrated it's hard to predict where that goes what about uh social media two or three big stories the the future of tiktok that may even be decided well it's going to be decided earlier in the new year the the future of tiktok at least in the united states uh the future of x which musk has turned into a platform it seems for his own political views kind of social media, wannabe social media players like Blue Sky. Are these important issues for 2025? Does social media even matter anymore?
Words and timings
andfrustratedit'shardtopredictwherethatgoeswhataboutuhsocialmediatwoorthreebigstoriesthethefutureoftiktokthatmayevenbedecidedwellit'sgoingtobedecidedearlierinthenewyearthethefutureoftiktokatleastintheunitedstatesuhthefutureofxwhichmuskhasturnedintoaplatformitseemsforhisownpoliticalviewskindofsocialmedia,wannabesocialmediaplayerslikeBlueSky.Aretheseimportantissuesfor2025?Doessocialmediaevenmatteranymore?
Keith Teare
I think it matters in that it's where the attention is. I mean, most people's attention is no longer on mainstream media, except probably for sports. I think social media is... pretty much the only place people engage and form opinion. As you know from your writing past with the culture of the amateur, bad things can happen if you don't trust people. I tend to trust people, so I don't think bad things really do happen that much. And I think social media is just more and more important, especially for young people. I do think TikTok Being banned is terrible. I don't know what's going to happen, but I would predict, given the election results, TikTok will not be banned. I think it's inconsistent with the narrative that Musk says he believes in. If it is banned, that would be a sign of his inability to affect outcomes or his being a little bit too faced. So I hope it isn't banned. I think TikTok, as you know, is an incredible app. I mean, it's just very engaging, very entertaining. There's nothing like it that's been this successful, this fast on this scale, even Facebook.
Words and timings
Ithinkitmattersinthatit'swheretheattentionis.Imean,mostpeople'sattentionisnolongeronmainstreammedia,exceptprobablyforsports.Ithinksocialmediais...prettymuchtheonlyplacepeopleengageandformopinion.Asyouknowfromyourwritingpastwiththecultureoftheamateur,badthingscanhappenifyoudon'ttrustpeople.Itendtotrustpeople,soIdon'tthinkbadthingsreallydohappenthatmuch.AndIthinksocialmediaisjustmoreandmoreimportant,especiallyforyoungpeople.IdothinkTikTokBeingbannedisterrible.Idon'tknowwhat'sgoingtohappen,butIwouldpredict,giventheelectionresults,TikTokwillnotbebanned.Ithinkit'sinconsistentwiththenarrativethatMusksayshebelievesin.Ifitisbanned,thatwouldbeasignofhisinabilitytoaffectoutcomesorhisbeingalittlebittoofaced.SoIhopeitisn'tbanned.IthinkTikTok,asyouknow,isanincredibleapp.Imean,it'sjustveryengaging,veryentertaining.There'snothinglikeitthat'sbeenthissuccessful,thisfastonthisscale,evenFacebook.
Andrew Keen
Could 2025 be the year where we see the generational divide on some of these issues? 2024 was the year Australia banned or began to... developed or introduced legislation that will not allow kids to use social media, best-selling books on the dangers of social media to the so-called anxious generation. TikTok is indeed banned in the US, which I agree with you. I think it's unlikely. But if it is, stranger things have happened. Could we see a generational revolt by young people saying, what right do you have to ban a media that dominates my life?
Words and timings
Could2025betheyearwhereweseethegenerationaldivideonsomeoftheseissues?2024wastheyearAustraliabannedorbeganto...developedorintroducedlegislationthatwillnotallowkidstousesocialmedia,best-sellingbooksonthedangersofsocialmediatotheso-calledanxiousgeneration.TikTokisindeedbannedintheUS,whichIagreewithyou.Ithinkit'sunlikely.Butifitis,strangerthingshavehappened.Couldweseeagenerationalrevoltbyyoungpeoplesaying,whatrightdoyouhavetobanamediathatdominatesmylife?
Keith Teare
You know, teenagers are always in revolt. Any parents ever tried to control a teenager from the age of about 14 up until I'd say the mid 20s knows it's impossible. People are independent minded and strong willed. If TikTok was banned, you would imagine something would replace it very fast. that was invented by teenagers as a replacement. Obviously, the whole China narrative within TikTok is completely made up and fabricated. So the banning is a political act really more than a social media concern. I'd be shocked if there wasn't a revolt. The chances that Australia, which, by the way, reversed that decision quite quickly once it saw the backlash, could control teenage behavior is absurd.
Words and timings
Youknow,teenagersarealwaysinrevolt.Anyparentsevertriedtocontrolateenagerfromtheageofabout14upuntilI'dsaythemid20sknowsit'simpossible.Peopleareindependentmindedandstrongwilled.IfTikTokwasbanned,youwouldimaginesomethingwouldreplaceitveryfast.thatwasinventedbyteenagersasareplacement.Obviously,thewholeChinanarrativewithinTikTokiscompletelymadeupandfabricated.Sothebanningisapoliticalactreallymorethanasocialmediaconcern.I'dbeshockediftherewasn'tarevolt.ThechancesthatAustralia,which,bytheway,reversedthatdecisionquitequicklyonceitsawthebacklash,couldcontrolteenagebehaviorisabsurd.
Andrew Keen
One of the dark horses that we haven't mentioned, we always talk about open AI and...
Words and timings
Oneofthedarkhorsesthatwehaven'tmentioned,wealwaystalkaboutopenAIand...
Andrew Keen
Microsoft, of course, Google Gemini, Anthropic. The dark horse here is Facebook. A couple of years ago, everyone was riding on Facebook, especially with their embrace of the metaverse. What kind of year might 2025 be for Facebook? Will they continue to be the dark horse? And maybe that's the wrong term to use.
Words and timings
Microsoft,ofcourse,GoogleGemini,Anthropic.ThedarkhorsehereisFacebook.Acoupleofyearsago,everyonewasridingonFacebook,especiallywiththeirembraceofthemetaverse.Whatkindofyearmight2025beforFacebook?Willtheycontinuetobethedarkhorse?Andmaybethat'sthewrongtermtouse.
Keith Teare
They've had a great 2020. They stopped leaking money on the face mask. They... built an open source AI called Llama that is very good and widely distributed and widely used. And they made more money from advertising than they've ever made before from more people using Facebook than have ever used it before. They probably are alongside Twitter, which everyone predicted would fail.
Words and timings
They'vehadagreat2020.Theystoppedleakingmoneyonthefacemask.They...builtanopensourceAIcalledLlamathatisverygoodandwidelydistributedandwidelyused.Andtheymademoremoneyfromadvertisingthanthey'veevermadebeforefrommorepeopleusingFacebookthanhaveeveruseditbefore.TheyprobablyarealongsideTwitter,whicheveryonepredictedwouldfail.
Andrew Keen
Twitter changed its name, didn't it?
Words and timings
Twitterchangeditsname,didn'tit?
Keith Teare
Yeah, X. But they're probably the two clear winners. And I think it'd be pretty hard pushed to say that won't be true in 25.
Words and timings
Yeah,X.Butthey'reprobablythetwoclearwinners.AndIthinkit'dbeprettyhardpushedtosaythatwon'tbetruein25.
Andrew Keen
Is X a winner? Musk might be a winner, but I'm not sure X is.
Words and timings
IsXawinner?Muskmightbeawinner,butI'mnotsureXis.
Keith Teare
Well, X has more engaged users than it's ever had.
Words and timings
Well,Xhasmoreengagedusersthanit'severhad.
Andrew Keen
But Facebook is a much bigger company and a much more consequential one.
Words and timings
ButFacebookisamuchbiggercompanyandamuchmoreconsequentialone.
Keith Teare
Yeah, yeah, it's 10 times bigger, I'd say.
Words and timings
Yeah,yeah,it's10timesbigger,I'dsay.
Andrew Keen
I mean, I use this term carefully, a dark horse. Are they competing? It's sometimes hard to tell who's competing with who. Is Facebook competing with Anthropic and OpenAI and Google, or are they all in different races?
Words and timings
Imean,Iusethistermcarefully,adarkhorse.Aretheycompeting?It'ssometimeshardtotellwho'scompetingwithwho.IsFacebookcompetingwithAnthropicandOpenAIandGoogle,oraretheyallindifferentraces?
Keith Teare
I think they're all a little confused. If you think of Facebook, it abandoned news about a year ago. And if you ever go there, I know you don't, but I do. It's mainly people you know now, birthdays and holiday pictures and stuff of that, plus advertising. There's more advertising than I've ever seen. A lot of video advertising, a lot of clickbait type of advertising. Facebook's become not very useful. If it wasn't for the fact that your family or friends were there, you probably wouldn't use it ever. But everyone is using it because everyone's on it. Yeah. But I think there's a business model imperative to try to invent new things that people pay for. You know, if you were running Facebook, fear of death should be your top thought. And Zuckerberg's very good at that. Zuckerberg either acquires or builds anything that seems attractive. and hasn't stopped doing that. And I think his pivot from AR and VR to AI is a demonstration yet again of his flexibility. I think Musk is way less flexible and way more focused on the everything app, as he calls it, the ex-everything app, banking, money transfers, crypto, everything's going to end up being in there, a little bit like WeChat in China. And so he's got a journey to still travel and seems to be very distracted. So you wonder whether he'll be able to pull that off.
Words and timings
Ithinkthey'reallalittleconfused.IfyouthinkofFacebook,itabandonednewsaboutayearago.Andifyouevergothere,Iknowyoudon't,butIdo.It'smainlypeopleyouknownow,birthdaysandholidaypicturesandstuffofthat,plusadvertising.There'smoreadvertisingthanI'veeverseen.Alotofvideoadvertising,alotofclickbaittypeofadvertising.Facebook'sbecomenotveryuseful.Ifitwasn'tforthefactthatyourfamilyorfriendswerethere,youprobablywouldn'tuseitever.Buteveryoneisusingitbecauseeveryone'sonit.Yeah.ButIthinkthere'sabusinessmodelimperativetotrytoinventnewthingsthatpeoplepayfor.Youknow,ifyouwererunningFacebook,fearofdeathshouldbeyourtopthought.AndZuckerberg'sverygoodatthat.Zuckerbergeitheracquiresorbuildsanythingthatseemsattractive.andhasn'tstoppeddoingthat.AndIthinkhispivotfromARandVRtoAIisademonstrationyetagainofhisflexibility.IthinkMuskiswaylessflexibleandwaymorefocusedontheeverythingapp,ashecallsit,theex-everythingapp,banking,moneytransfers,crypto,everything'sgoingtoendupbeinginthere,alittlebitlikeWeChatinChina.Andsohe'sgotajourneytostilltravelandseemstobeverydistracted.Soyouwonderwhetherhe'llbeabletopullthatoff.
Andrew Keen
So you think that the Zuckerberg model or the Zuckerberg strategy of focus A narrower strategy is smarter than the Musk stretch.
Words and timings
SoyouthinkthattheZuckerbergmodelortheZuckerbergstrategyoffocusAnarrowerstrategyissmarterthantheMuskstretch.
Keith Teare
Certainly appears to be, if you measure it by money, but they're very different. I mean, Musk has got everything he wanted out of X, right? I mean...
Words and timings
Certainlyappearstobe,ifyoumeasureitbymoney,butthey'reverydifferent.Imean,MuskhasgoteverythinghewantedoutofX,right?Imean...
Andrew Keen
It's interesting that we talk endlessly about OpenAI and Facebook and Google and Microsoft. We rarely ever talk about Amazon anymore. Has Amazon become an afterthought? Will there be an afterthought? I mean, of course, they're the dominant... e-commerce platform, and I assume that there's still an important player in web services. But could 2025 be a year which Amazon is relegated to the second tier of big tech players?
Words and timings
It'sinterestingthatwetalkendlesslyaboutOpenAIandFacebookandGoogleandMicrosoft.WerarelyevertalkaboutAmazonanymore.HasAmazonbecomeanafterthought?Willtherebeanafterthought?Imean,ofcourse,they'rethedominant...e-commerceplatform,andIassumethatthere'sstillanimportantplayerinwebservices.Butcould2025beayearwhichAmazonisrelegatedtothesecondtierofbigtechplayers?
Keith Teare
I don't think so, Andrew. I mean, I think they own one thing outright, which is And they are a huge owner of the cloud, which doesn't go away. They've now launched their own AI models, which are pretty good, apparently, that they want to sell as a service to people who use their cloud, developers mainly. So they're going to be a player.
Words and timings
Idon'tthinkso,Andrew.Imean,Ithinktheyownonethingoutright,whichisAndtheyareahugeownerofthecloud,whichdoesn'tgoaway.They'venowlaunchedtheirownAImodels,whichareprettygood,apparently,thattheywanttosellasaservicetopeoplewhousetheircloud,developersmainly.Sothey'regoingtobeaplayer.
Andrew Keen
Well, that's the old S. So the SaaS model, they're competing directly with Microsoft and Benio. And Google as well. Nothing matches. It doesn't sound... that dramatic. What about Apple? What kind of year might you're a big Apple user and a bigger Apple follower? What should Apple do in 2025 to make them again, a central player in the AI narrative. Or perhaps they might be wisest to just step back and let everyone else fight and do their own thing.
Words and timings
Well,that'stheoldS.SotheSaaSmodel,they'recompetingdirectlywithMicrosoftandBenio.AndGoogleaswell.Nothingmatches.Itdoesn'tsound...thatdramatic.WhataboutApple?Whatkindofyearmightyou'reabigAppleuserandabiggerApplefollower?WhatshouldAppledoin2025tomakethemagain,acentralplayerintheAInarrative.Orperhapstheymightbewisesttojuststepbackandleteveryoneelsefightanddotheirownthing.
Keith Teare
I actually think they don't need to be, from the point of view of the iPhone and their revenue stream, putting chat GPT in the iPhone and having their own Apple intelligence is probably good enough for them to be relevant. M&I on Android is... pretty much similar, if not worse, because Gemini isn't as good as ChatGPT. So I don't think Apple really has to do anything. If Apple has a strategic plan, it would be to find products that can move the needle on its revenue. And its revenue is so huge, those products have to be massive in their impact. Clearly, the Vision Pro wasn't. That's a big loser. You bought it. What are you doing with yours? I still use it. It's actually very good for particular use cases, but it's not a mass market product, at least not now. I think Apple is right not to try to be mainstream AI, but rather focus on its own business model. The good way to think about the whole of all these companies, Andrew, is there's a big jigsaw puzzle. of the world, and each company is a different geography, and there's overlaps between them. But actually, they all own quite independent revenue streams that don't really compete with each other.
Words and timings
Iactuallythinktheydon'tneedtobe,fromthepointofviewoftheiPhoneandtheirrevenuestream,puttingchatGPTintheiPhoneandhavingtheirownAppleintelligenceisprobablygoodenoughforthemtoberelevant.M&IonAndroidis...prettymuchsimilar,ifnotworse,becauseGeminiisn'tasgoodasChatGPT.SoIdon'tthinkApplereallyhastodoanything.IfApplehasastrategicplan,itwouldbetofindproductsthatcanmovetheneedleonitsrevenue.Anditsrevenueissohuge,thoseproductshavetobemassiveintheirimpact.Clearly,theVisionProwasn't.That'sabigloser.Youboughtit.Whatareyoudoingwithyours?Istilluseit.It'sactuallyverygoodforparticularusecases,butit'snotamassmarketproduct,atleastnotnow.IthinkAppleisrightnottotrytobemainstreamAI,butratherfocusonitsownbusinessmodel.Thegoodwaytothinkaboutthewholeofallthesecompanies,Andrew,isthere'sabigjigsawpuzzle.oftheworld,andeachcompanyisadifferentgeography,andthere'soverlapsbetweenthem.Butactually,theyallownquiteindependentrevenuestreamsthatdon'treallycompetewitheachother.
Andrew Keen
What revenue stream is most up for grabs in 2025? No one's probably going to, certainly next year, no one's going to challenge the hardware industry. the hardware power of Apple. Where are the most interesting intersections where we'll be able to see this time next year the future of big tech?
Words and timings
Whatrevenuestreamismostupforgrabsin2025?Noone'sprobablygoingto,certainlynextyear,noone'sgoingtochallengethehardwareindustry.thehardwarepowerofApple.Wherearethemostinterestingintersectionswherewe'llbeabletoseethistimenextyearthefutureofbigtech?
Keith Teare
I think it's going to be consumers spending on agents. It will probably be the second half of the year that that really starts to happen.
Words and timings
Ithinkit'sgoingtobeconsumersspendingonagents.Itwillprobablybethesecondhalfoftheyearthatthatreallystartstohappen.
Andrew Keen
These are AI agents, algorithms that will help us lead more efficient lives.
Words and timings
TheseareAIagents,algorithmsthatwillhelpusleadmoreefficientlives.
Keith Teare
Yeah. Exactly. I think it's consumer revenue. I don't think it's going to be business to business. Enterprise revenue is not that much up for grabs yet. I think that might be 2026. So I'd say consumer-facing AI applications are the most likely. That could include government, depending on what Musk and Ramaswamy does. But they could certainly revolutionize health and education if they wanted to.
Words and timings
Yeah.Exactly.Ithinkit'sconsumerrevenue.Idon'tthinkit'sgoingtobebusinesstobusiness.Enterpriserevenueisnotthatmuchupforgrabsyet.Ithinkthatmightbe2026.SoI'dsayconsumer-facingAIapplicationsarethemostlikely.Thatcouldincludegovernment,dependingonwhatMuskandRamaswamydoes.Buttheycouldcertainlyrevolutionizehealthandeducationiftheywantedto.
Andrew Keen
And speaking of government, Keith, I'm not sure what you're going to do next year. Your dear friend, Lina Khan, will probably take some universe job and no longer be involved in regulating big tech. Is that going to be a big change for 2020?
Words and timings
Andspeakingofgovernment,Keith,I'mnotsurewhatyou'regoingtodonextyear.Yourdearfriend,LinaKhan,willprobablytakesomeuniversejobandnolongerbeinvolvedinregulatingbigtech.Isthatgoingtobeabigchangefor2020?
Keith Teare
It's going to be a pleasant change, isn't it? I actually watched the All In podcast with Keith Raboy this week. David Sachs is no longer on it. And they're looking for a replacement, by the way, Andrew. I've put your name forward. Yeah, I don't think no one. And... They're probably more likely to warn you. This is the sentence that came out of her boy's mouth. Nina Khan is famous for writing a paper that was full of rubbish. Well,
Words and timings
It'sgoingtobeapleasantchange,isn'tit?IactuallywatchedtheAllInpodcastwithKeithRaboythisweek.DavidSachsisnolongeronit.Andthey'relookingforareplacement,bytheway,Andrew.I'veputyournameforward.Yeah,Idon'tthinknoone.And...They'reprobablymorelikelytowarnyou.Thisisthesentencethatcameoutofherboy'smouth.NinaKhanisfamousforwritingapaperthatwasfullofrubbish.Well,
Andrew Keen
that's your graduate student remark, which some people might consider a little patronising. But is she done? Is this whole regulatory impulse finished? Will the... This new Trump regime with Sachs and Musk involved, will it just let big tech be big tech in an unregulated way?
Words and timings
that'syourgraduatestudentremark,whichsomepeoplemightconsideralittlepatronising.Butisshedone?Isthiswholeregulatoryimpulsefinished?Willthe...ThisnewTrumpregimewithSachsandMuskinvolved,willitjustletbigtechbebigtechinanunregulatedway?
Keith Teare
I doubt it, actually, because I think some of the people Trump is putting in place are still regulators in their brain. But it's going to be more interesting what they choose to regulate. Most people think it'll be more M&A. that gets land. More IPOs as well, by the way, is a big prediction.
Words and timings
Idoubtit,actually,becauseIthinksomeofthepeopleTrumpisputtinginplacearestillregulatorsintheirbrain.Butit'sgoingtobemoreinterestingwhattheychoosetoregulate.Mostpeoplethinkit'llbemoreM&A.thatgetsland.MoreIPOsaswell,bytheway,isabigprediction.
Andrew Keen
Right, and M&As. But, you know, a lot of predictions about 2025, Thomas Tongus, Alex Kantrowitz. A lot of people believe that there'll be winners and losers when it comes to big tech and regulation. A lot of people are a little skeptical of Google. Some people, I think, Kantrowitz believes that Google will lose its second monopoly case. How do you expect Google to survive or not survive in 2020?
Words and timings
Right,andM&As.But,youknow,alotofpredictionsabout2025,ThomasTongus,AlexKantrowitz.Alotofpeoplebelievethatthere'llbewinnersandloserswhenitcomestobigtechandregulation.AlotofpeoplearealittleskepticalofGoogle.Somepeople,Ithink,KantrowitzbelievesthatGooglewillloseitssecondmonopolycase.HowdoyouexpectGoogletosurviveornotsurvivein2020?
Keith Teare
A year ago, I would have worried for Google. I think now the atmosphere has changed with the election and that Google can probably breathe a sigh of relief. and not be as threatened. And I think it's quite a profound change when you move from these guys are too big.
Words and timings
Ayearago,IwouldhaveworriedforGoogle.IthinknowtheatmospherehaschangedwiththeelectionandthatGooglecanprobablybreatheasighofrelief.andnotbeasthreatened.AndIthinkit'squiteaprofoundchangewhenyoumovefromtheseguysaretoobig.
Keith Teare
What's that? The Democrat who hired Lena Khan, the woman who's best known for trying to take on... Elizabeth Warren. Elizabeth Warren. The Elizabeth Warren view is kind of gone. I don't think it has any chance of coming back, but it does dominate current law cases. I think those law cases will go into the background and the regulatory framework will more focus on what to allow as opposed to what to disallow. I think crypto will benefit from that as well.
Words and timings
What'sthat?TheDemocratwhohiredLenaKhan,thewomanwho'sbestknownfortryingtotakeon...ElizabethWarren.ElizabethWarren.TheElizabethWarrenviewiskindofgone.Idon'tthinkithasanychanceofcomingback,butitdoesdominatecurrentlawcases.Ithinkthoselawcaseswillgointothebackgroundandtheregulatoryframeworkwillmorefocusonwhattoallowasopposedtowhattodisallow.Ithinkcryptowillbenefitfromthataswell.
Andrew Keen
You mentioned crypto and David Sack. He now is apparently, quote unquote, the AI and crypto czar of the new administration. How badly wrong can this administration go? Could we have a crypto crash? I don't know what the price of Bitcoin is right now, but it's certainly unusually high. Is it possible that We're on the brink of another dot-con or dot-com meltdown when it comes to crypto in 2020.
Words and timings
YoumentionedcryptoandDavidSack.Henowisapparently,quoteunquote,theAIandcryptoczarofthenewadministration.Howbadlywrongcanthisadministrationgo?Couldwehaveacryptocrash?Idon'tknowwhatthepriceofBitcoinisrightnow,butit'scertainlyunusuallyhigh.IsitpossiblethatWe'reonthebrinkofanotherdot-conordot-commeltdownwhenitcomestocryptoin2020.
Keith Teare
You know, that's the stated point of view of most non-crypto participants. Are you a participant? I'm not, actually, but I was for a while. I think it's most likely that Bitcoin's going to become an approved asset for government...
Words and timings
Youknow,that'sthestatedpointofviewofmostnon-cryptoparticipants.Areyouaparticipant?I'mnot,actually,butIwasforawhile.Ithinkit'smostlikelythatBitcoin'sgoingtobecomeanapprovedassetforgovernment...
Keith Teare
stores, if you like, like gold, because of the people who are in power. And I think when that happens, the argument that Bitcoin isn't backed by government goes away, and it becomes an asset that does have government backing. And when that happens, and why would that happen is all to do with reserve currencies and how the world works. It's probably too complex for us to get into now. But why it might happen is to do with reserve currencies and the dollar's role as the reserve currency not being tenable. Right.
Words and timings
stores,ifyoulike,likegold,becauseofthepeoplewhoareinpower.AndIthinkwhenthathappens,theargumentthatBitcoinisn'tbackedbygovernmentgoesaway,anditbecomesanassetthatdoeshavegovernmentbacking.Andwhenthathappens,andwhywouldthathappenisalltodowithreservecurrenciesandhowtheworldworks.It'sprobablytoocomplexforustogetintonow.Butwhyitmighthappenistodowithreservecurrenciesandthedollar'sroleasthereservecurrencynotbeingtenable.Right.
Andrew Keen
I wonder, I mean, we'll talk about this next year. I wonder whether a number of shifts are taking place. On the one hand, we have a larger and larger U.S. debt, which Trump doesn't seem to be bothered with. the rise of Bitcoin, challenging the political independence of the Federal Reserve. I wonder whether one of the potentially more interesting things in 2015 will be a shift from a world centered on the Fed to one networked around crypto i mean it's not going to happen within a year but we could see a a slow
Words and timings
Iwonder,Imean,we'lltalkaboutthisnextyear.Iwonderwhetheranumberofshiftsaretakingplace.Ontheonehand,wehavealargerandlargerU.S.debt,whichTrumpdoesn'tseemtobebotheredwith.theriseofBitcoin,challengingthepoliticalindependenceoftheFederalReserve.Iwonderwhetheroneofthepotentiallymoreinterestingthingsin2015willbeashiftfromaworldcenteredontheFedtoonenetworkedaroundcryptoimeanit'snotgoingtohappenwithinayearbutwecouldseeaaslow
Keith Teare
shift in that direction i think if that happens crypto gets incorporated into what we call the borg earlier was dc dc i mean look crypto is now been incorporated by the financial institutions like blackrock the next stage is government and it it doesn't seem impossible that that could happen And if that happens, crypto becomes just another asset that's used in the financial system for particular purposes. Now, when we say crypto, we're already talking about Bitcoin there. It's not all crypto. And I think there's lots and lots of other things going on in crypto that, just like always, will be on a spectrum of crime all the way through to good things. and you're going to have to pick and choose there. And government's not going to get involved there other than possibly through regulation keeping out of the way.
Words and timings
shiftinthatdirectionithinkifthathappenscryptogetsincorporatedintowhatwecalltheborgearlierwasdcdcimeanlookcryptoisnowbeenincorporatedbythefinancialinstitutionslikeblackrockthenextstageisgovernmentandititdoesn'tseemimpossiblethatthatcouldhappenAndifthathappens,cryptobecomesjustanotherassetthat'susedinthefinancialsystemforparticularpurposes.Now,whenwesaycrypto,we'realreadytalkingaboutBitcointhere.It'snotallcrypto.AndIthinkthere'slotsandlotsofotherthingsgoingonincryptothat,justlikealways,willbeonaspectrumofcrimeallthewaythroughtogoodthings.andyou'regoingtohavetopickandchoosethere.Andgovernment'snotgoingtogetinvolvedthereotherthanpossiblythroughregulationkeepingoutoftheway.
Andrew Keen
In other words, you have no idea, Keith. I have no idea. Let's end with nobody has any idea of how 2025 is going to work out. That's what makes it so interesting, particularly given that Trump's very ambitious on a lot of tech fronts. But let's end with a couple of visions from you. Firstly, what would you like to happen? What would be the best thing that could happen in 2025, realistically?
Words and timings
Inotherwords,youhavenoidea,Keith.Ihavenoidea.Let'sendwithnobodyhasanyideaofhow2025isgoingtoworkout.That'swhatmakesitsointeresting,particularlygiventhatTrump'sveryambitiousonalotoftechfronts.Butlet'sendwithacoupleofvisionsfromyou.Firstly,whatwouldyouliketohappen?Whatwouldbethebestthingthatcouldhappenin2025,realistically?
Keith Teare
The best thing that could happen in 2025? Good question. I mean, my brain is full of lots of specific things that would imply human beings... having an easier life, achieving the things that they have to do, which I think AI will start to deliver on.
Words and timings
Thebestthingthatcouldhappenin2025?Goodquestion.Imean,mybrainisfulloflotsofspecificthingsthatwouldimplyhumanbeings...havinganeasierlife,achievingthethingsthattheyhavetodo,whichIthinkAIwillstarttodeliveron.
Andrew Keen
And that's with agents in particular.
Words and timings
Andthat'swithagentsinparticular.
Keith Teare
With agents in particular. I don't think there's one big thing. I mean, I don't think there's a Tesla car that would justify that statement or a SpaceX mission or a crypto play that would justify that decision. I think it's the overall impact of lots and lots of different use cases of AI changing people's lives.
Words and timings
Withagentsinparticular.Idon'tthinkthere'sonebigthing.Imean,Idon'tthinkthere'saTeslacarthatwouldjustifythatstatementoraSpaceXmissionoracryptoplaythatwouldjustifythatdecision.Ithinkit'stheoverallimpactoflotsandlotsofdifferentusecasesofAIchangingpeople'slives.
Andrew Keen
And then the worst case, what could really seriously go wrong in 2025 from a tech point of view?
Words and timings
Andthentheworstcase,whatcouldreallyseriouslygowrongin2025fromatechpointofview?
Keith Teare
military weapons produced by technology companies leading to automated warfare, reducing the fear of human costs, therefore allowing the world to get out of control. Is that likely in 20, I mean,
Words and timings
militaryweaponsproducedbytechnologycompaniesleadingtoautomatedwarfare,reducingthefearofhumancosts,thereforeallowingtheworldtogetoutofcontrol.Isthatlikelyin20,Imean,
Andrew Keen
that's a chilling vision, but is that likely to happen within a year of the Trump administration?
Words and timings
that'sachillingvision,butisthatlikelytohappenwithinayearoftheTrumpadministration?
Keith Teare
His demeanor suggests not, but what's happening in Ukraine is and Europe in general, in Germany, as you pointed out. There's a lot of instability in the world, and Trump is certainly looking at the world through the prism of American competition, not cooperation. So, you know, nationalism is an unexploded gas, and it could always be sparked.
Words and timings
Hisdemeanorsuggestsnot,butwhat'shappeninginUkraineisandEuropeingeneral,inGermany,asyoupointedout.There'salotofinstabilityintheworld,andTrumpiscertainlylookingattheworldthroughtheprismofAmericancompetition,notcooperation.So,youknow,nationalismisanunexplodedgas,anditcouldalwaysbesparked.
Andrew Keen
Finally, Keith, what kind of promise does 2025 have? I think Lenin famously said sometimes, Within a year, you have entire centuries being made. In 1917 comes to mind, the Russian Revolution. Certain other years, 1968, for example. 2001 was another supposedly trend, a year where everything changed. Could 2025 be... A big year or just another year?
Words and timings
Finally,Keith,whatkindofpromisedoes2025have?IthinkLeninfamouslysaidsometimes,Withinayear,youhaveentirecenturiesbeingmade.In1917comestomind,theRussianRevolution.Certainotheryears,1968,forexample.2001wasanothersupposedlytrend,ayearwhereeverythingchanged.Could2025be...Abigyearorjustanotheryear?
Keith Teare
I'd say the chances are that it is just another year, but the incremental change will be quite big. But I think if you extended it to the next half of the decade, I would suspect by the end of the decade, we're living completely different lives.
Words and timings
I'dsaythechancesarethatitisjustanotheryear,buttheincrementalchangewillbequitebig.ButIthinkifyouextendedittothenexthalfofthedecade,Iwouldsuspectbytheendofthedecade,we'relivingcompletelydifferentlives.
Andrew Keen
We're cheating a bit using decades. How close we will be in 2025 is, of course, the middle year of the 2020s. Well, 2025, I know this is a dumb way of putting it, but I can't think of anything else. Will we be closer to 2030 or 2020 in 2024?
Words and timings
We'recheatingabitusingdecades.Howclosewewillbein2025is,ofcourse,themiddleyearofthe2020s.Well,2025,Iknowthisisadumbwayofputtingit,butIcan'tthinkofanythingelse.Willwebecloserto2030or2020in2024?
Keith Teare
We'll be closer to 2026, for sure. There's going to be a leap. At some point, there's going to be a leap. And the leap is really all about the application of AI to specific things. It's already possible. You know, Alexandra... Greenhill is in the chat here, says she loves the analogies I use, and she mentions the unborn baby, the unborn child. I do think there are millions of unborn children. That is to say, AI is already capable of a lot of tasks that no one has yet written the software to apply it to. We're super close because it's already possible.
Words and timings
We'llbecloserto2026,forsure.There'sgoingtobealeap.Atsomepoint,there'sgoingtobealeap.AndtheleapisreallyallabouttheapplicationofAItospecificthings.It'salreadypossible.Youknow,Alexandra...Greenhillisinthechathere,saysshelovestheanalogiesIuse,andshementionstheunbornbaby,theunbornchild.Idothinktherearemillionsofunbornchildren.Thatistosay,AIisalreadycapableofalotoftasksthatnoonehasyetwrittenthesoftwaretoapplyitto.We'resuperclosebecauseit'salreadypossible.
Andrew Keen
Maybe I'm going to title 2025 the leap year, Keith. The leap year, yeah. I hope you and I will still be around at the end of 2025. We will see whether or not some of your predictions come out. I hope you have a wonderful new year, Keith. We're going to Not do the show for a couple of weeks. We'll be back, what, the third week of January? Going back to regular, that was the week.
Words and timings
MaybeI'mgoingtotitle2025theleapyear,Keith.Theleapyear,yeah.IhopeyouandIwillstillbearoundattheendof2025.Wewillseewhetherornotsomeofyourpredictionscomeout.Ihopeyouhaveawonderfulnewyear,Keith.We'regoingtoNotdotheshowforacoupleofweeks.We'llbeback,what,thethirdweekofJanuary?Goingbacktoregular,thatwastheweek.
Keith Teare
Yeah, I'm going to do a newsletter on January the 16th, 17th, and we'll discuss it on the 19th, I think, when you get back from Europe.
Words and timings
Yeah,I'mgoingtodoanewsletteronJanuarythe16th,17th,andwe'lldiscussitonthe19th,Ithink,whenyougetbackfromEurope.
Andrew Keen
Yeah, I will be at DLD. Keith Teer, happy new year. We will talk third week of January. Lots of interesting predictions for 2020. It's going to be the leap year. Thank you again, Keith.
Words and timings
Yeah,IwillbeatDLD.KeithTeer,happynewyear.WewilltalkthirdweekofJanuary.Lotsofinterestingpredictionsfor2020.It'sgoingtobetheleapyear.Thankyouagain,Keith.