As The Crisis Deepens

Mar 24, 2023 · 2023 #9. Read the transcript grouped by speaker, inspect word-level timecodes, and optionally turn subtitles on for direct video playback

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March The 17th If it's Friday, must be that was the week With my friend Keith Teer Our show, our weekly show about technology Technology though now is the world When you look at the three headlines on our major papers, they're all about the crisis that Silicon Valley, the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank seems to have created for the rest of the economy. The Wall Street Journal leads with the crisis of First Republic Bank. New York Times talks about how the banking crisis now hangs over the economy. And the FT talks about UBS and talks to acquire Credit Suisse. Keith's newsletter this week is entitled as the crisis deepens, and it has indeed deepened. And Keith, as always, is joining us from his home at the heart of the crisis where everything began, Keith, in Palo Alto, California. How is the crisis deepening, Keith? Or is this just perception? Is it real that the crisis is actually I mean, maybe let me rephrase the question. Is it even a crisis? Well, my headline is actually ironic, but no one you wouldn't know that unless you were part of a left wing group that I was part of back in the 1990s, because we used to stop every speech with as the crisis deepens. So I thought this week it would be an apt title. Also, Biden, I thought Biden was hilarious this week. He he was asked what should happen to Silicon Valley Bank shareholders. And he said, well, they're going to lose their money. That's how capitalism works, meaning it doesn't work very well. But the crisis is deepening, Andrew. But what is the crisis? The crisis is really a crisis of capital allocation in a time of rapidly changing interest rates that undermine strategies very rapidly that looked sensible when they were made, but now are likely to lose a lot of money. And so the banks are the place where this plays out, because banks hold deposits from people like you and me. They pay as interest and they have to take our money and earn more interest with it than they're paying us, and they have to do that over the long haul. So the decisions they made roughly two years ago looked smart at the time, but now look like really not smart at all. And the crisis is the crisis of them trying to recover from the broad realization that their investment strategies are out of sync with the modern reality. I talked with Brad DeLong earlier today for one of the Keynone shows. And he talks about what he calls the new economic laws of our social media age. DeLong teaches at UC Berkeley, is one of America's leading economists on the center left. He argues that a lot of the crisis, and we use that term, I guess, in inverted commas, a lot of the crisis was caused by social media, by speed, by guys like Thiel who created hysteria. Do you agree with Brad DeLong? No, no. I mean, yes and no, I suppose I should say. It's definitely true that news travels fast and panic news travels even faster and people act on that news faster than they ever did before. So that bit of it's true. But it would be a mistake to correlate that with the cause of the panic. The cause of the panic is structural and very real. The awareness of and reaction to the panic, I think he describes that quite well. You write in the editorial, the entire infrastructure you're talking about, the American banking system only worked if backed by large depositors and then, as a last resort, the government. Here, DeLong suggested in our conversation today that the leaders of both parties in both houses need to make a statement making clear that they will back depositors at all banks in America. I assume you're on the same page as Brad on that front. Yeah, I mean, that is a fundamental part of capitalism. Capitalism at the nation state level has a bank of last resort. It's usually the National Bank, the Fed here and the Bank of England in England and so on. And a bank of last resort is without that confidence in money disappears. Money is ultimately confidence. So if you don't have a bank of last resort, you can't trust money. And that would lead to a flight to non-money assets, which is beginning to happen. Bitcoin's up a lot, for example, and so is gold in the last two weeks. So unless he's quite right, unless the government does that. You can't expect the population to trust the dollar, because if you put the dollar in a place where it can disappear. Not good. DeLong worked in the Clinton administration and he takes credit for the fact that Janet Reno now runs the Fed, suggesting that he advised her to be appointed back in the 1990s. How have the central bankers behaved in all this as not maybe not the bankers of last resort, but certainly as the grown ups in the room? What is the behavior of of Yellen look like to you, Keith, from Palo Alto? Pretty good, I would say. She she went on the record last Sunday prior to the announcements being made of what the FDIC and the Fed would do. In that interview, she made central to her whole narrative was defending depositors, not shareholders or management that led to, I think, a sigh of relief broadly. And later that day, when they announced that deposits would be honored, I think everybody breathed a sigh of relief. And that was that was the right thing to do. However, it hasn't had the effect they hoped. First Republic Bank, which did not get taken over, has had a couple of attempts to save it this week. None of which have fully worked, even though large amounts of money have been put to work. And Credit Suisse has also had a major crisis this week. Both of those are driven by the same problem, which is declining deposits in the context of long term bond investments that are underwater, leading to a lack of liquidity. The bank just doesn't have any money. So if everybody did withdraw their money, there wouldn't be enough there to give it to them. So that's pretty major. Now that the government stepped in, it is worth saying that the consequences of failure do go all the way up to government now because the government's now an actor and a player. And so they're going to be even more motivated to lean in and and fix this. The big conversation is whether the fix is to stop raising interest rates, because that does add a little bit when you tighten a screw, eventually breaks the wood that you screw it into. If you don't, if you don't stop, interest rates are the other driver of this, this kind of crevice in value that is leading to the problem. Keith, you and I agree on many things, but we also, I think, disagree on sometimes at least on the role of government. You're certainly closer to being a libertarian than I am. But Brad DeLonge suggested that one of the reasons, again, for this crisis, and in here he's very much in sync with Elizabeth Warren and other figures on the left of the Democratic Party, is that as a consequence of Trump era reform or undermining of bank laws, is there a need for more regulation? Are the banks too free to make money and then they lose all their money and they run back to government to survive? They can't have their cake, so to speak, and eat it, can they, these banks, when it comes to regulation and government? Well, I think the abstract point is correct. You can't have unregulated banking anymore than you can have unregulated freeways. However, the lack of regulation didn't cause this problem. Silicon Valley Bank didn't actually do anything outside of regulations. No, but the point that Brad DeLonge and Elizabeth Warren make is that the rules were relaxed, I think it was in 2018, which enabled them to be more speculative, more aggressive, perhaps, in their investment, which created this crisis. Yeah, that's just factually incorrect. Silicon Valley Bank is what's called a large financial institution under the Dodd-Frank legislation and is highly regulated and didn't do anything outside of those regulations. No, but that's not the point. They're not making the point that they broke the law. They're making the point that the law changed in 2018. Not for large financial institutions. It did change, but not for large financial institutions. In fact, they became more regulated after 2008 and that did not go away. It was more the broader market where most of the changes impacted. In your essays of the week, you have one really interesting one from Kate Clark and Dealmaker on venture capitalists making a big mess of Silicon Valley Bank. Is there any truth to this, Keith? Now, the collapse of the bank fits into the anti-tech zeitgeist in America. You already noted Biden's rather heavy-handed attempt to distance himself from Silicon Valley Bank. Yeah, look, she's right and wrong. It is true that there was a wide range of behaviours from venture capitalists, some of whom, like Mark Suster from Upfront Ventures, begged people to leave their money in Silicon Valley Bank, others like Union Square Ventures who advised their companies to take their money out of Silicon Valley Bank as fast as they possibly could. And then there was a lot of finger pointing afterwards as to who caused the run on the bank. And, you know, some people tried to take credit for the government stepping in, other people didn't. So there was a lot of childish behaviour. And in that sense, she is completely right. But I'd say these are all second level effects of the core set of events, not first level effects. But, you know, it does allow you to see inside the psychology of Silicon Valley and understand that it isn't one place and that there are competing narratives, broadly libertarian or broadly Democrat, as the two largest camps that don't agree with each other on causes and consequences. I actually think they're both wrong. Did this fit into that split? Because you mentioned Union Square Ventures encouraging their portfolio companies to call out, but Union Square is closer to being progressive than libertarian, isn't it? I would say so. Yeah. And so the libertarians were screaming, it's quite strange, but the libertarians were screaming for the government to step up. I know, it's ironic. Was it Andreessen or Sachs? Who was it? David Sachs and Jason Calacanis and others, which they were right, by the way, the government did have to step up. And in that sense, the people screaming for the government to step up and the people saying, move your money out now, both have the same end goal, which is to save the companies who were the depositors. And the venture capitalists, by the way, remember, venture capitalists invest pension fund and endowment money. So if venture capitalists lose, it's poor people who lose, not rich people. Say that again, Keith, poor people, in a good Yorkshire accent, poor, poor people. And what about what becomes of Silicon Valley without Silicon Valley Bank? You have an interesting piece by Sarah Morrison from Vox in this. You're a Silicon Valley or you were a Silicon Valley investor. You deposited your money in that from your startup, SignalRank. What becomes of Silicon Valley without Silicon Valley Bank? Well, Silicon Valley Bank is part of what you might think of as the glue of Silicon Valley. It's the connective tissue between venture capitalists, limited partners in venture funds, founders and startups, law firms and accountants. It's the glue. It's the thing that knits it all together. It provides loans. That's a decent sized part of its business to startups who, when they raise venture capital, they also raise some debt. It invests itself in funds. It is an investor in funds, a small one, but it does invest. But more than anything else, it's a connector. You know, you'll call up someone at Silicon Valley Bank and they'll say, oh, let me put you in touch with X and Y. So not a lot will change in terms of VCs will do what VCs do. Founders will do what founders do. They all find a place to put their money. But that human connective tissue is going to get dissipated and spread around a lot of new and other businesses. For example, like Mercury Bank, which took on an additional two billion dollars this week, is one of the winners of the whole crisis. I wouldn't be surprised if lots of people who were at SVB end up at Mercury Bank, which is a digital bank. There's no physical presence. So that's a lot of change. It will take years to reproduce the efficiencies that come from having a network that SVB represented. Keith, when historians look back at March, mid-March 2023 in 10 or 15 years, two major events, there's the banking crisis and, of course, the release of GPT-4, which of them do you think they're more likely to remember in 10 years? That depends a lot on the next 10 years. Well, that obviously depends on the next 10 years. That's given. But I'm asking you, which one do you think is going to be remembered more or less? I fear to say I think it might be the banking crisis, because I think we're living now in such uncertain times where trust has been eroded. In the context of this large, global, soft war between China and the USA, the war in Ukraine, I actually think that instability is more likely to dominate in the next 10 years than growth, not because that has to be true, but because of human subjectivity going to the fear side of the spectrum. I would like to think we all can turn into optimists. And in that case, chat GPT and GPT-4 would certainly dominate because there would be growth and there would be outcomes. And that's definitely going to be part of the narrative. But I'm not sensing an overriding optimism. I'm sensing overriding fear, uncertainty and doubt. And in that context, usually good things struggle to be born. I think you may be spending too much time with me. You're becoming really a miserable pessimist. The Dauer Yorkshireman is overcoming the optimistic libertarian. What's going on? Observation of human behavior. I think the core fundamental problem of our time is lack of growth. In the economy as a whole, in fact, the opposite is interesting that DeLong, who's certainly no techno optimist, believes that actually chat GPT is going to open up huge opportunity for profit, the development of the economy. You're not you don't agree with Brad on that front. It could it could and should just as the Internet should and did and did. It depends on how humans use it. It could also be a tool of warfare. So ultimately, it's about who you know, what do you want the next 10 years to look like? And if you don't have a positive, optimistic answer and then act on the instinct that is behind that, sadly, those who are the pessimists will dominate the field and they are dominating the field right now. Optimism is not flavor of the month. So I think it's an open question. If you ask me a different question, which is what I want to be the case, I want to chat GPT to be GPT for to drive the agenda way more than the banking crisis. And I'm doing everything I can to make that so. And we'll continue to do that by innovation, by putting money where my mouth is. But everyone has to do that. It can't just be a small number of individuals. It's not just you, Reid Hoffman is also doing that. He's coming out with a new book, a new podcast. You connect with one of your news stories of the week. And he used chat GPT to write this book. What do you make of Reid Hoffman? I have to admit, I'm rather envious. He's been playing with chat GPT now for almost a year because, of course, he was on the board and is very close to Sam Altman. Yeah, so I mean, Reid is prolific. But it mildly, I don't know what actually drives the guy. I mean, he's multi trillion billionaire and he's still writing books. You know, he cares when you meet him, you would see that he's. No, I know. Yeah. So, yeah, he has a heart and he cares. He's been a big backer of the Democratic Party, apparently behind the scenes. He had a lot to say about Silicon Valley Bank last weekend and helped influence the outcome. And this book is humble, Reid. This is Reid saying, look, I wanted to write a book, but I got help from chat GPT and GPT-4 in particular he used. And he used it as a as a augmented human, which I think is probably the dominant use case for the GPT. In other words, it doesn't replace you. It enhances your productivity and your ability to understand things quickly and to frame and capture them and frame them. So he used it as a co-author, a copy editor, an idea, brainstorming partner and so on and so forth. And he documents all that in this book. And when you look at the book, it's really a roadmap as to how to use GPT effectively in what you want to achieve. There was another one this week with a guy giving GPT a budget of $100 and asking it to come up with a strategy to turn $100 into as much money as possible. And it recommended building an affiliate marketing site, which it then built and was deployed and then began to actually work. And that was somebody looking for an idea using chat GPT as a friend, if you like, or a partner. I think that is the dominant meme. The idea that you can use it as a as a source of scientific truth is wrong, but you can use it as the augmented human being in many, many different use cases. And that's what Reid did. I think it's awesome. History seems to be repeating itself just as creatives were on the front line of the first Internet revolution with Napster, with newspapers and then with social media and Web 2.0. So creatives are also on the front front lines of this new AI revolution you mentioned already that Reid Hoffman used it to write a book. Got a couple of interesting pieces about whether or not robots can indeed make art and how that will impact on the artist. One piece from words suggesting that AI will make human art more valuable. You're optimistic on that, Frankie? Yeah, there's two sides to those two articles represent the opposite. The first one is talking about the government, the law, not the government, the courts. Deciding that you can't copyright art produced by a robot due to the fact that the robot can't be an artist, which I just thought was trivializing the whole thing. I think the court probably is temporarily right, but it's going to be super easy for mid mid journey. Is it the company to to give a copyright assignment? It owns the robot, so it probably has the copyright. To assign that to the person using mid journey would be very easy. So I think the copyright issue can be fixed. The other one is is more pertinent, which is a robot can't be an artist. Simply mean sorry, a robot can make human art more valuable. It simply is talking about the collaboration between a human and a robot, which I think can only be good, can't it? What's the bad version of that? I don't think there is one. Yeah, and the collaborative side is is pretty interesting. The comparison I always make is in chess, when initially I was seen as beating human chess players and therefore ruining the game and being creepy and chilling in terms of its implications for humans. And then what we've seen is collaboration between the best chess players and the best algorithms, which has benefited the game, chess players and everyone. Exactly. You're making me too cheerful, Keith. A couple of interesting other news stories before we get to start up of the week and tweet of the week. You used to talk endlessly about Tiger Global and you've conveniently forgotten about that, but you're honest enough to connect with the story about Tiger Global writing down venture funds bets by 33 percent in 2022. Are these big funds like Tiger Global, are they done or are they surviving and will they return?

Words and timings

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bout23:14.16the23:14.64government23:15.20the23:15.86law23:15.86not23:16.34the23:16.52government23:16.60the23:16.98courts23:17.14Deciding23:18.28that23:18.88you23:19.16can't23:19.30copyright23:19.98art23:20.28produced23:20.92by23:21.26a23:21.66robot23:22.30due23:22.30to23:23.66the23:23.88fact23:23.98that23:24.16the23:24.32robot23:24.50can't23:24.74be23:25.24an23:25.34artist23:25.92which23:26.28I23:27.20just23:27.46thought23:27.68was23:27.92trivializing23:28.54the23:29.10whole23:29.42thing23:29.60I23:29.82think23:30.00the23:30.14court23:30.92probably23:30.92is23:31.56temporarily23:33.12right23:33.46but23:34.84it's23:34.98going23:35.18to23:35.22be23:35.34super23:35.50easy23:35.88for23:36.20mid23:37.34mid23:37.94journey23:38.54Is23:38.72it23:38.80the23:38.86company23:39.10to23:39.32to23:40.56give23:42.04a23:42.24copyright23:43.00assignment23:43.00It23:43.92owns23:44.52the23:44.68robot23:44.90so23:45.28it23:45.50probably23:45.82has23:46.14the23:46.36copyright23:46.66To23:47.74assign23:48.16that23:48.62to23:48.98the23:49.16person23:49.28using23:49.58mid23:50.06journey23:50.42would23:50.64be23:50.98very23:51.20easy23:51.60So23:52.36I23:52.96think23:53.14the23:53.40copyright23:53.98issue23:54.22can23:54.48be23:54.64fixed23:55.24The23:55.80other23:55.94one23:56.08is23:56.28is23:56.66more23:56.84pertinent23:57.02which23:57.66is23:57.74a23:58.66robot23:59.34can't23:59.52be23:59.90an24:00.02artist24:00.60Simply24:02.62mean24:03.22sorry24:03.76a24:04.74robot24:05.22can24:05.22make24:05.54human24:05.82art24:06.08more24:06.28valuable24:06.48It24:07.16simply24:07.76is24:07.76talking24:08.18about24:08.46the24:08.66collaboration24:08.90between24:09.50a24:09.90human24:10.32and24:10.32a24:11.08robot24:11.08which24:11.28I24:12.20think24:12.48can24:12.60only24:12.84be24:13.02good24:13.22can't24:13.52it24:13.90What's24:14.52the24:15.12bad24:15.30version24:15.66of24:16.00that24:16.20I24:16.50don't24:16.60think24:16.80there24:17.00is24:17.12Yeah24:18.40and24:18.52the24:18.70collaborative24:18.84side24:19.14is24:19.72is24:20.54pretty24:20.76interesting24:20.94The24:22.92comparison24:23.60I24:24.28always24:24.62make24:24.86is24:25.16in24:25.34chess24:25.94when24:27.04initially24:27.48I24:27.98was24:28.42seen24:28.90as24:29.24beating24:30.42human24:30.66chess24:31.52players24:31.86and24:32.20therefore24:32.48ruining24:33.20the24:33.88game24:34.28and24:34.60being24:34.90creepy24:36.12and24:37.76chilling24:38.64in24:39.04terms24:39.48of24:39.60its24:39.78implications24:40.06for24:40.54humans24:40.96And24:41.18then24:41.38what24:41.66we've24:42.64seen24:43.08is24:43.08collaboration24:43.40between24:44.08the24:44.48best24:44.64chess24:44.96players24:45.28and24:45.64the24:45.88best24:46.00algorithms24:46.32which24:47.28has24:47.32benefited24:48.42the24:48.42game24:48.98chess24:50.04players24:50.04and24:50.50everyone24:51.02Exactly24:53.80You're24:54.84making24:55.48me24:55.48too24:55.72cheerful24:56.36Keith24:57.30A24:59.34couple24:59.88of25:00.02interesting25:00.80other25:01.28news25:01.80stories25:02.34before25:02.66we25:02.88get25:03.06to25:03.20start25:03.56up25:03.72of25:03.84the25:04.06week25:04.12and25:04.34tweet25:04.58of25:04.76the25:04.92week25:05.22used25:06.34to25:06.58talk25:06.86endlessly25:07.10about25:07.74Tiger25:08.38Global25:08.72and25:09.14you've25:09.94conveniently25:10.22forgotten25:10.78about25:11.10that25:11.50but25:11.88you're25:12.24honest25:13.02enough25:13.18to25:13.50connect25:14.00with25:14.28the25:14.46story25:14.70about25:15.04Tiger25:15.64Global25:16.06writing25:16.36venture25:17.80funds25:18.32bets25:18.78by25:19.143325:19.64percent25:20.42in25:20.88202225:21.16Are25:22.26these25:22.88big25:23.12funds25:23.44like25:23.64Tiger25:24.12Global25:24.30are25:24.64they25:24.78done25:24.96or25:25.32are25:26.24they25:26.70surviving25:27.00and25:27.42will25:27.68they25:27.82return25:28.06

Speaker

It's a very hard question. Either answer could be true. Remember, one of the founders of Tiger Global left a little while ago. We talked about it at the time. So the human personnel is changing. The old portfolio from 2020 and 2021 has been downgraded appropriately, probably not enough. And when we used to talk about Tiger Global, the context was towards the smaller investors saying these guys are coming for you, which they were. And now they're not. So paradoxically, that ends up being a bad thing for the ecosystem because there are now no large check riders coming in to do C and D rounds, accelerating the growth possibilities of the companies that have already done B rounds and A rounds. So that's going to slow down the whole. Yeah, but you could. Some people might suggest it's a good thing, firstly, because they inflated valuations. And secondly, they didn't always do their research. So it gives the mid-range venture capitalists more opportunity to nurture these companies, whereas before they were being crushed by the absurd wealth of Tiger Global. Yeah, but I actually think that isn't quite specific enough. I think what really happened is Tiger Global was like the middle runner in a relay team, passing the baton on to the true overvaluers later, just before public offerings, people like Fidelity and the like. So the lack of that middle distance runner actually breaks the entire chain to some extent. So it will mean things go slow, but slower than they need to, because opportunities are quite big. If you look at AI now and think about the companies that could be built in the next two years, you could build some very big companies in the next two years. For that to happen, capital needs to be deployed earlier than the value is there to fund the growth and the development. And that may be lacking, so things may go slower. So from a human race point of view, lack of capital, we've seen this, if you contrast America and the UK, for example, lack of capital in the UK leads it to be a third level kind of player in innovation. And America was a first level player, along with China, because of the availability of capital. If that fundamentally changes, that's not necessarily a good thing in the broad picture. It may get rid of speculation, but in squeezing out speculation, it may also squeeze out proper innovation. Well, if you want to speed up, Keith, you have to get an Uber or a Lyft, boom, boom, because they've done pretty well. They've had a good week. The banks may not. The economy may not. Most of us haven't had great weeks, but Uber and Lyft have had a good week. They've scored a victory in California in terms of treating drivers as contractors. Does that mean the precarious economy now is legal? In California, at least, at least for now, there's probably appeals that can happen. But I think it's a good thing. I mean, when did you last take a drive with an Uber or a Lyft and the driver said, you know, the only thing wrong in my life is I can't be an employee? Normally, what they say is it's fantastic. I can go to work when I want. I can clock off when I want. Nobody's my boss. They love it. So I don't think. Well, I don't know how many Ubers you've been taking recently. I'm not sure if they love it. It depends who you talk to. It's certainly not as ideal as you're suggesting. But well, they love the flexibility. I mean, they love the flexibility, but you could still have flexibility and not be treated as a contractor and be given more rights, more insurance, more health care. I don't see why those are incompatible. Well, I don't think they're really. I think even the word contractor doesn't properly express what they're doing. They're really kind of paid, self-employed in a sense, with an infrastructure provided by the self-employed network, which is Uber and Lyft. So it's really people living a fairly independent life now. I think they work super hard and to make decent money, you have to. So I'm not implying for a second that it's a cushy life at all. But I don't think there's very many Uber drivers asking to become employees on a clock. You might have given Uber or Lyft startup of the week. You didn't. Your startup of the week instead is the remaking of Kleiner Perkins. So what has happened to Kleiner Perkins this week that makes it so interesting? Kleiner Perkins has been through at least three lives, if not more, and it has a new life now, hence the startup of the week, as an earlier stage investor with completely new people. You remember, historically, it was Costler and John Doerr, Caulfield and Byers who started it. And this is a whole new generation, younger, more focused on early stage investing. And this is their story. This is a really good piece of writing. It's quite long. It's a profile in The Generalist, which I highly recommend. It's a good read. And the startup of the week, because they're starting up, they're really literally starting over with a whole new way of thinking and a whole new pile of money and a new way of investing it. So I'm wishing them the best. And finally, tweet of the week. Twitter hasn't been mentioned, fortunately. We haven't mentioned Elon Musk. What's the tweet of the week? I hope it's not from Elon. Yeah, I'm looking at it, so I'm not looking at my camera, which is over there. This is just a nice summary of the week in AI, which is why you can begin to build an optimistic narrative for the next 10 years. It goes to every day of the week and all the different announcements of AI. And by the way, it's super profound. I mean, there was a thread yesterday that I was on with Benedict Evans, who used to be at Andreessen Horowitz, talking about the end of the spreadsheet, because you won't need a spreadsheet anymore. ChatGPT can do all the math and produce a table for you, and you don't have to type in all those formulas anymore. So you probably don't need a word processor anymore. And Microsoft's building GPT into Word, into Excel. It can even do a PowerPoint. You can give it something you wrote and say, please make a PowerPoint slides, 10 slides, using this as the content, and it will do it for you. So the tools that we've all been used to get replaced the more that GPT can do the work. And we end up being the suggestors, the prompters. It ends up doing the work, and we end up being the copy editors of it to make it better still. I think it's amazing. And this is just a list of different announcements that feed into that, becoming really by the day more and more real. What's the best interface, Keith, to use for GPT? Do you need to subscribe to it, or will there be applications that make it increasingly friendly to consumers? Both. So you go to chat.openai.com to get an account. It's free, but you can choose to pay $20 a month for the pro version. I do that. Now, when you go to a tool like Word that has it built in, it will ask you to log in using your login, and then will make itself available in the interface that you're now using. So it's the same backend platform, but it's going to appear in more and more places where you can use it. And it will be good in that context, in those places. We're just, if you go to signalrank.ai, you'll see we've got a little link called Ada, which says coming soon. Well, Ada is chat GPT built on top of our algorithms that will allow you to ask it who are the best A-rank companies in England doing health tech, for example. And why did it pick those? It will be able to tell you. And that says using it in our interface with our data, by the way. We train it on our data. Have we had the Netscape moment yet with chat GPT, or is that the wrong way to think about it? I think that is OpenAI itself. chat.openai.com has more than 100 million people have used it now. It's huge. Well, Keith, I asked you about 10 years time. You dodged that question. What about this time next week? Will the crisis deepen more? Will we be even more dour Yorkshireman next week, or might we have cheered up? I think you need to get better lighting. That's your problem. You need to be like me and wear yellow and brighten up a bit. Probably, yeah. I'm wearing black this week for good reason. No, I think chat GPT will dominate the next week. But I do think First Republic Bank and Credit Suisse are not going to easily recover from the mess they're in. I don't believe this will become a wider contagion. I think the government's smart enough to stop that. And so I think probably six weeks from now, we won't be talking about banking anymore. I think that's likely unless they mess it up. And I don't think there's very much of a chance they'll mess it up. So maybe this time next week, Keith, we'll be talking about your hero, Paul Graham. Maybe. Who knows?

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he30:44.88week30:44.96as30:45.20an30:45.44earlier30:46.06stage30:46.44investor30:46.80with30:47.22completely30:48.24new30:49.08people30:49.38You30:50.24remember30:50.36historically30:50.80it30:51.24was30:51.44Costler30:51.96and30:52.88John30:53.32Doerr30:53.96Caulfield30:56.64and30:57.02Byers30:58.06who30:58.38started31:00.32it31:01.30And31:01.86this31:02.38is31:03.44a31:03.60whole31:03.76new31:03.98generation31:04.42younger31:05.64more31:06.22focused31:06.34on31:06.56early31:06.76stage31:07.00investing31:07.26And31:09.34this31:09.86is31:10.02their31:10.18story31:10.60This31:10.90is31:11.28a31:11.44really31:12.08good31:12.84piece31:13.16of31:13.38writing31:13.64It's31:13.78quite31:13.90long31:14.10It's31:14.56a31:14.72profile31:14.86in31:15.22The31:15.40Generalist31:15.58which31:16.60I31:16.88highly31:17.18recommend31:17.42It's31:18.02a31:18.02good31:18.14read31:18.26And31:20.32the31:20.84startup31:21.36of31:21.70the31:21.96week31:21.96because31:22.18they're31:22.36starting31:22.54up31:22.82they're31:23.38really31:24.04literally31:24.52starting31:24.96over31:25.36with31:25.74a31:26.32whole31:26.54new31:26.70way31:27.22of31:28.46thinking31:28.78and31:28.90a31:29.20whole31:29.30new31:29.44pile31:29.90of31:30.54money31:30.90and31:30.90a31:31.50new31:31.68way31:31.80of31:31.96investing31:32.16it31:32.38So31:33.00I'm31:33.48wishing31:33.96them31:33.96the31:34.18best31:34.54And31:36.20finally31:36.30tweet31:37.32of31:37.56the31:37.78week31:38.08Twitter31:38.88hasn't31:39.16been31:39.42mentioned31:39.96fortunately31:40.42We31:40.96haven't31:41.06mentioned31:41.44Elon31:41.62Musk31:42.06What's31:43.12the31:43.52tweet31:43.72of31:44.02the31:44.22week31:44.44I31:44.54hope31:44.80it's31:44.80not31:44.94from31:45.10Elon31:45.36Yeah31:46.24I'm31:46.58looking31:46.82at31:47.08it31:47.26so31:47.46I'm31:47.66not31:47.70looking31:47.94at31:48.10my31:48.22camera31:48.58which31:48.76is31:48.92over31:49.10there31:49.32This31:49.58is31:50.32just31:50.54a31:51.20nice31:51.32summary31:51.68of31:51.96the31:52.18week31:52.26in31:52.50AI31:52.70which31:53.44is31:53.44why31:54.12you31:54.44can31:54.64begin31:55.14to31:56.06build31:56.82an31:57.10optimistic31:57.72narrative31:57.98for31:58.46the31:58.76next31:58.801031:58.98years31:59.24It31:59.78goes32:00.20to32:00.40every32:00.60day32:00.84of32:01.02the32:01.22week32:01.28and32:01.44all32:01.68the32:01.90different32:02.08announcements32:02.52of32:03.02AI32:03.58And32:04.66by32:04.84the32:05.08way32:05.08it's32:05.28super32:05.90profound32:06.28I32:06.94mean32:07.04there32:07.44was32:07.70a32:07.80thread32:08.10yesterday32:08.26that32:08.60I32:08.82was32:08.94on32:09.04with32:09.22Benedict32:09.48Evans32:09.74who32:10.24used32:10.40to32:10.54be32:10.74at32:11.02Andreessen32:11.38Horowitz32:11.76talking32:13.16about32:13.46the32:13.80end32:14.12of32:14.34the32:14.74spreadsheet32:15.32because32:15.98you32:16.46won't32:16.62need32:16.82a32:16.96spreadsheet32:17.42anymore32:17.42ChatGPT32:19.32can32:19.88do32:20.28all32:20.62the32:20.86math32:21.22and32:21.66produce32:23.10a32:23.68table32:24.16for32:24.16you32:24.52and32:24.84you32:25.04don't32:25.12have32:25.26to32:25.42type32:25.70in32:25.92all32:26.06those32:26.24formulas32:26.78anymore32:26.78So32:27.92you32:28.48probably32:29.04don't32:29.38need32:29.62a32:29.80word32:30.10processor32:30.16anymore32:30.56And32:32.14Microsoft's32:32.70building32:33.26GPT32:33.26into32:34.48Word32:34.98into32:35.58Excel32:35.74It32:36.54can32:36.76even32:36.90do32:37.06a32:37.22PowerPoint32:37.52You32:38.06can32:38.10give32:38.68it32:38.86something32:39.00you32:39.28wrote32:39.80and32:39.80say32:40.54please32:40.98make32:41.10a32:41.36PowerPoint32:42.06slides32:42.061032:42.84slides32:43.02using32:43.86this32:44.20as32:44.48the32:44.62content32:44.78and32:45.14it32:45.34will32:45.46do32:45.60it32:45.78for32:45.94you32:46.18So32:47.00the32:47.30tools32:48.52that32:48.98we've32:49.20all32:49.38been32:49.56used32:49.72to32:49.94get32:51.12replaced32:51.34the32:52.10more32:53.34that32:53.74GPT32:54.22can32:54.90do32:55.24the32:55.38work32:55.58And32:56.26we32:56.78end32:57.14up32:57.26being32:57.48the32:57.80suggestors32:58.22the32:59.02prompters32:59.16It33:00.28ends33:00.48up33:00.62doing33:00.88the33:01.00work33:01.26and33:01.88we33:02.12end33:02.36up33:02.52being33:02.74the33:02.86copy33:03.08editors33:03.34of33:03.60it33:03.94to33:04.12make33:04.28it33:04.44better33:04.62still33:04.92I33:05.56think33:06.08it's33:06.08amazing33:06.34And33:06.84this33:06.98is33:07.10just33:07.28a33:07.48list33:07.70of33:07.96different33:08.92announcements33:09.70that33:10.32feed33:10.98into33:11.26that33:11.54becoming33:12.06really33:12.46by33:13.66the33:13.88day33:14.14more33:14.56and33:14.74more33:15.02real33:15.02What's33:16.28the33:16.88best33:17.06interface33:17.34Keith33:18.32to33:18.44use33:18.64for33:18.98GPT33:19.68Do33:20.18you33:20.26need33:20.40to33:20.52subscribe33:20.92to33:21.32it33:21.82or33:22.04will33:22.28there33:22.50be33:22.78applications33:23.78that33:24.62make33:25.74it33:26.30increasingly33:26.60friendly33:27.32to33:28.02consumers33:28.72Both33:29.84So33:30.68you33:31.20go33:31.60to33:31.92chat33:32.24openai33:32.62com33:33.88to33:34.56get33:34.94an33:35.54account33:36.06It's33:36.24free33:36.52but33:36.88you33:37.50can33:37.56choose33:37.78to33:37.96pay33:38.822033:38.96a33:39.42month33:39.78for33:39.78the33:39.94pro33:40.16version33:40.38I33:40.68do33:41.20Now33:43.37when33:43.97you33:44.57go33:44.77to33:45.01a33:45.41tool33:46.09like33:46.35Word33:46.83that33:47.21has33:47.51it33:47.69built33:47.89in33:48.07it33:48.49will33:48.93ask33:49.15you33:49.45to33:49.61log33:49.93in33:49.93using33:50.19your33:50.43login33:50.73and33:51.63then33:51.79will33:52.03make33:52.25itself33:52.75available33:53.13in33:53.53the33:53.85interface33:54.19that33:54.25you're33:54.61now33:54.67using33:55.05So33:55.83it's33:56.29the33:56.53same33:56.77backend33:56.99platform33:57.41but33:58.41it's33:58.65going33:59.53to33:59.67appear34:00.03in34:00.03more34:00.31and34:00.47more34:00.87places34:00.87where34:01.41you34:02.05can34:02.17use34:02.41it34:02.59And34:02.87it34:03.31will34:03.41be34:03.61good34:03.95in34:04.31that34:04.91context34:05.41in34:05.75those34:05.97places34:06.19We're34:07.91just34:08.59if34:09.35you34:09.41go34:09.81to34:10.05signalrank34:11.33ai34:12.75you'll34:13.83see34:14.47we've34:14.65got34:14.89a34:14.97little34:15.11link34:15.33called34:15.57Ada34:15.99which34:16.65says34:16.85coming34:17.09soon34:17.35Well34:18.63Ada34:18.97is34:18.97chat34:19.85GPT34:20.43built34:21.03on34:21.25top34:21.61of34:21.65our34:21.85algorithms34:22.67that34:23.07will34:23.87allow34:24.07you34:24.29to34:24.49ask34:24.79it34:24.93who34:25.55are34:26.09the34:26.21best34:26.29A34:26.57rank34:26.93companies34:27.01in34:27.49England34:28.59doing34:28.81health34:30.25tech34:31.21for34:31.69example34:31.95And34:33.27why34:33.95did34:34.63it34:35.09pick34:35.35those34:35.57It34:35.87will34:35.97be34:36.07able34:36.25to34:36.33tell34:36.51you34:36.69And34:37.57that34:37.57says34:37.89using34:38.15it34:38.45in34:38.69our34:38.73interface34:38.93with34:39.25our34:39.53data34:39.77by34:40.11the34:40.31way34:40.31We34:40.57train34:40.57it34:40.83on34:40.97our34:41.09data34:41.37Have34:43.47we34:43.47had34:43.65the34:43.87Netscape34:44.25moment34:44.53yet34:44.99with34:45.29chat34:45.87GPT34:46.05or34:46.71is34:46.83that34:46.91the34:47.03wrong34:47.25way34:47.35to34:47.51think34:47.79about34:47.85it34:48.13I34:48.35think34:48.61that34:48.77is34:49.43OpenAI34:49.73itself34:50.19chat34:52.25openai34:52.77com34:53.29has34:53.91more34:54.17than34:54.4710034:54.67million34:54.95people34:55.17have34:55.49used34:55.85it34:55.85now34:56.05It's34:58.05huge34:58.57Well35:00.07Keith35:00.41I35:00.77asked35:01.83you35:02.01about35:02.111035:02.29years35:02.57time35:02.83You35:03.37dodged35:03.59that35:05.25question35:05.55What35:06.15about35:06.15this35:06.39time35:06.85next35:07.15week35:07.47Will35:08.33the35:08.85crisis35:09.07deepen35:09.35more35:10.01Will35:10.85we35:10.85be35:10.99even35:11.25more35:11.59dour35:13.05Yorkshireman35:13.23next35:13.91week35:14.25or35:14.53might35:14.65we35:14.85have35:15.03cheered35:15.53up35:15.53I35:17.33think35:17.85you35:18.37need35:18.55to35:18.71get35:18.99better35:18.99lighting35:19.23That's35:19.87your35:20.15problem35:20.41You35:20.77need35:20.91to35:21.03be35:21.15like35:21.31me35:21.57and35:21.77wear35:21.97yellow35:22.21and35:22.57brighten35:23.09up35:23.39a35:23.65bit35:23.89Probably35:24.79yeah35:25.25I'm35:25.57wearing35:25.71black35:25.89this35:26.23week35:26.67for35:26.73good35:26.95reason35:27.19No35:28.21I35:28.69think35:28.75chat35:28.93GPT35:29.27will35:29.85dominate35:30.11the35:30.37next35:30.77week35:30.99But35:31.15I35:31.31do35:31.45think35:31.69First35:31.97Republic35:32.31Bank35:32.59and35:33.05Credit35:33.77Suisse35:34.29are35:34.63not35:35.17going35:35.91to35:36.07easily35:36.61recover35:36.97from35:37.25the35:37.51mess35:37.89they're35:37.93in35:38.27I35:38.87don't35:39.03believe35:39.37this35:39.61will35:39.81become35:40.01a35:40.29wider35:40.51contagion35:40.85I35:41.65think35:41.73the35:41.85government's35:42.05smart35:42.61enough35:42.79to35:42.99stop35:43.23that35:43.47And35:44.53so35:44.53I35:44.71think35:44.91probably35:45.29six35:45.85weeks35:46.87from35:47.05now35:47.33we35:47.89won't35:48.31be35:48.49talking35:48.69about35:48.99banking35:49.43anymore35:49.71I35:50.85think35:51.37that's35:51.39likely35:52.09unless35:52.09they35:52.81mess35:53.05it35:53.27up35:53.47And35:53.61I35:53.85don't35:53.99think35:54.27there's35:54.33very35:54.57much35:54.83of35:55.25a35:55.39chance35:55.47they'll35:55.67mess35:56.05it35:56.07up35:56.27So35:56.99maybe35:57.51this35:57.73time35:58.01next35:58.27week35:58.47Keith35:58.93we'll35:59.01be35:59.11talking35:59.55about35:59.55your35:59.83hero36:00.09Paul36:00.89Graham36:00.97Maybe36:01.79Who36:03.13knows36:03.65

Speaker

Oh, everybody.

Words and timings

everybody36:27.63

Speaker

I guess you say. What can make me feel this way? It's my girl, my girl, my girl. I'm talking about my girl. My girl.

Words and timings

I36:31.59guess36:31.59you36:31.59say36:32.27What36:34.27can36:34.27make36:35.09me36:35.73feel36:36.53this36:36.99way36:37.37It's36:38.39my36:38.61girl36:39.27my36:39.65girl36:41.07my36:41.53girl36:41.61girl36:41.61I'm36:41.61talking36:41.91about36:42.27my36:43.27girl36:43.83My36:45.17girl36:45.59