We Are Accelerating to Abundance

We Are Accelerating to Abundance

Ed Kilgore's article in New York Magazine surfaces the divisive potential of the idea of Abundance in the context of the Democratic Party. Albert Wenger's hope for a Start Trek like future highlights its liberating potential.

We hear a lot about "abundance" - is it real, can we handle it, are our institutions ready? I think most of that kind of talk misses the point entirely. Abundance isn't a possibility; it's an inevitability being driven by forces so powerful they're already overwhelming the obstacles we keep putting in their way.

This isn't just about having more stuff. It's about unlocking human potential on a scale we've barely begun to imagine, fueled by the potent combination of technology, energy, and capital. And the evidence isn't just promising; it's overwhelming. Abundance as a word in modern use describes the end result of automation delivering all human needs and wants while reducing labor time to a tiny fraction of what it is today.

Look at the numbers, the real numbers. Saastr and Clouded Judgement both point to top-decile AI based B2B startups aren't just growing; they're achieving escape velocity with 236% ARR growth . That's not incremental improvement; that's operating in an entirely new paradigm where AI acts as a fundamental multiplier of human capability. These companies aren't waiting for permission or perfectly untied government knots; they're building with AI agents, automating workflows, and scaling expertise right now. The power law dynamics in venture capital? They haven't changed, they've intensified. Top 1% exits are growing exponentially, reaching over $10 billion already and projected to hit $40-60 billion within a decade. When a $1 million seed investment can turn into a billion-dollar company like Airwallex, that's not just a good return; that's abundance creation in action. Capital is flowing massively into AI, particularly late-stage deals over $100 million, confirming investor confidence in scalability and profitability. Unicorns aren't rare anymore; they're becoming common, and AI companies dominate the list of new ones. The size of the prize is growing, and fast. And AI promises to be far larger than SaaS.

But none of this is possible without energy. And here too, the trend is undeniable. Energy abundance is the absolute prerequisite, and we are rapidly approaching it. Solar costs have plummeted, at least on the sunny side of the street, and AI demand is exploding, creating a perfect storm driving us towards "energy too cheap to meter".

Oracle's massive $40 billion commitment to Nvidia chips for OpenAI's new data center isn't just buying hardware; it's a colossal bet on a future where energy is cheap enough to fuel trillion-parameter models for pennies. The path is clear: solar, nuclear fusion research, small modular reactors - the solutions are emerging and entrepreneurial activity is driving costs down dramatically. We desperately need this energy, for AI, and for the health of complex societies, and the means to produce it are already here or on the horizon.

So, you hear about the "obstacles." Institutional sclerosis, government inefficiency, the friction of legacy systems. Yes, the Biden administration's infrastructure efforts show how painfully slow things can be, and Elon Musk finding only $175 billion in wasteful spending falls short of a $1 trillion goal. But the very existence of the "Abundance Agenda" is a recognition that the need for speed and efficiency is forcing change.

The companies achieving 236% growth aren't bogged down by "progressive coalition politics" or interest group "quilts"; they've chosen speed over safety and execution over inertia. While governments debate, the market is building the future. The ability to build, ship, and adapt faster is the only sustainable edge, and the best companies are proving it daily.

The "Information Abundance Paradox" with Google summarizing content? That's not a barrier; it's a recognition that AI has to be positioned to gather, summarize and act on content. Publishers with verified facts and editorial authority are more valuable than ever to AI, and the market will find ways to reward them. This is a necessary evolution, not an ecosystem collapse.

Even the "memeification" of capital, with things like Fartcoin hitting a $2 billion market cap, simply highlights that attention and narrative velocity are powerful in the age of AI and social media. But it doesn't fundamentally change the power law where lasting value creation wins in the end.

And the shift in media, like sports moving to streaming? It's messy, it introduces friction, and it changes the consumer experience. But it also trades the old cable bundle's "inevitability" for the consumer's "intentionality" - the choice of what to subscribe to. This unbundling is a restructuring, forcing media companies to acquire customers and manage churn, yes, but also opening doors for new, potentially better ways to consume content in the long run. It's a transition, not a permanent state of scarcity for the viewer.

Apple seems to be in victim mode in light of all this change. Reacting with "thin skin" to criticism? Declining interviews because they can't handle critiques? That's simply a sign that the unprecedented market pressures and the dizzying pace of AI innovation demand more honesty and external feedback, not less. Companies that don't listen will be left behind. The market forces driving abundance require agility and a willingness to adapt, punishing the kind of insular complacency that leads to "something rotten."

Even the challenges to free speech, accelerated by technology, are forcing a necessary and urgent defense. The crisis highlights that free speech requires constant protection, and technology isn't just a tool for polarization; it's also a tool for organizing, disseminating diverse voices, and fighting back against censorship from any side. It's a battle for abundance of expression, not a sign that it's lost.

The potential for abundance is not some distant utopian dream; it is the logical outcome of the exponential trends in technology, energy, and capital that are already reshaping the world. The speed of change is so great that the perceived obstacles - institutional inertia, outdated business models, resistance to change - are simply temporary points of friction that will be overcome by the sheer momentum of progress.

The path forward isn't complicated: speed over safety, energy first, institutional reform driven by necessity, and value creation that benefits participants, not just extractors. The companies leading the charge already understand this. We have the technology, the capital is ready, and the energy solutions are emerging. The question isn't whether abundance is possible or even good; it's whether we fully embrace the inevitable future that is already unfolding around us. And frankly, given the forces at play, there's really only one choice. Abundance isn't just coming; it's here, and it's only accelerating.

Facing the consequences of less labor time and increased leisure time is a key part of this. "What are your hobbies?" will replace "What do you do?" as the first question we ask each other.

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