Stand Back, Think Big, Dig Deep

I woke on Tuesday to Doug Leone of Sequoia Capital on X saying:

I have become increasingly concerned about the general direction of our country, the state of our broken immigration system, the ballooning deficit, and the foreign policy missteps, among other issues. Therefore, I am supporting former President Trump in this coming election.

Doug has the right to support Trump. It is also clear that the immigration system is broken, the deficit is ballooning, many things are wrong with foreign policy, and there are "other issues." Trump as the solution is less obvious. But there it is - hot on the tails of Chamath Palihipitaya and David Sacks announcing a fund-raiser for Trump on the All-In podcast (they said they would do the same for Biden).

Reid Hoffman followed up a day later with:

On one level, this is a straightforward choice, but any literate attempt to analyze Leone's issues might arrive at the following conclusions:

Like many Western nations, the USA is aging rapidly and has a shrinking working-age population across all skill sets. Immigrants are needed, and pro-immigration leadership is needed, creating a path to entry for large numbers of skilled and unskilled workers to fill empty jobs as we get close to full employment.

The deficit is large, and there are many palliatives available. Selling more to China would help, but both party leaders are protectionist. Taxes to reduce the divide between the 1% and the rest would help a bit. However, what would help the most is economic growth, which requires investment in technology and productivity. Neither leader seems too focused on innovation and investment.

Foreign Policy - well, sheesh, it's a big issue. However, saber-rattling about Taiwan and provoking China seems to be a hobby shared by both parties and does not seem smart. Ukraine and the future of Europe are better in Biden's hands, but not by a lot. Europe looks very shaky. The US is increasingly isolationist. The appetite for world leadership is on the decline. Again, the solution would focus on economic growth, which seems absent.

Voting for Trump is a big no-no for me. But voting for Biden is, at best, a lesser evil instinct, not a belief system. The election will not be where the future is built, but it is important. Politicians are collectively disappointing.

This week's video of the week from Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz is called "The American Dream" and champions their view about American Dynamism. And I must confess that this comes closer to a vision of the future than either political outfit. Their vision requires political support, massive government financial commitment, and private capital investment. I see no evidence of those happening.

The real winning effort seems to be happening on the ground. This week, Nvidia hit $3 trillion, eclipsing Apple as the world's second-most valuable company. This is even though Apple has 7 times the revenue of Nvidia.

This week's first essays also focus on prospects for boom time. Rex Woodbury's 'The Consumer Renaissance' examines the impact of consumer spending on our lives. In 'The Creator Economy on AI Steroids, ' Nathan Lands focuses on how emerging tools will transform creativity. But in 'AI Is Transforming the Nature of the Firm, ' Evan Armstrong gets closest to a future vision."

AI is the first universally flexible technology. It can interact with our digital environments in similar ways to humans, so it can have all the flexibility that we do. In that way, it may be the last technology we ever need.

This seems to be the crux of hope in a world where dreams and nightmares are strangely devoid of detail. What the world needs (not only America) is hope. And hope is born from optimism. Optimism is born from success. The most likely success of the next decades will result from specific uses of AI that improve human life.

I know and like Doug Leone. I know and like Reid Hoffman.

Doug's bar for success needs to be higher. Voting for Trump is not right, and even if it were, it would not be sufficient.

Reid also needs a higher bar. Voting for Biden will not be sufficient even if it is right.

Let's focus on where success can be found, grow optimism, and breed hope. There is a need for a broad technical revolution and the social rebirth it enables. Silicon Valley and its friends globally need to invent the next version of human existence to the benefit of all. The social rebirth requires a conscious effort; technology will not magically bring it about. More in this week's video.

Essays of the Week